比特幣盤整，但技術面暗示看跌前景中潛在的情緒轉變

在看跌情緒中，比特幣繼續盤整，但技術指標顯示前景可能會改變。儘管獲利回吐和風險偏好受到抑制，但比特幣的彈性和新興需求領域顯示了潛在的突破。機構採用和對未來降息的預期可能會推動對風險資產的需求增加，從而使比特幣受益。然而，美國非農業就業數據可能會影響定價，正面的趨勢可能會對風險資產造成壓力，並將比特幣推向65,000美元的水平。

Bitcoin Consolidates Amid Bearish Outlook, but Technical Hints Signal Potential Sentiment Shift

比特幣在看跌前景中盤整，但技術暗示預示著潛在的情緒轉變

Bitcoin's consolidation phase continues into its fourth week, with the cryptocurrency confined to a range below the $70,000 mark. The ongoing negative market sentiment has been driven by profit-taking expectations, dampened risk appetite, reduced demand for Bitcoin ETFs, and the US government's attempt to sell seized BTC. These factors weighed on Bitcoin's price, pushing it below $70,000 and testing levels beneath $65,000.

比特幣的盤整階段已進入第四周，加密貨幣價格被限制在 7 萬美元大關以下的區間。持續的負面市場情緒是由獲利預期、風險偏好減弱、比特幣 ETF 需求減少以及美國政府試圖出售扣押的 BTC 所推動的。這些因素打壓了比特幣的價格，使其跌破 70,000 美元並測試 65,000 美元以下的水平。

Despite the recent corrections, Bitcoin's resilience is evident, particularly considering the upward trend observed in 2024. New demand areas have emerged around $65,000, and the cryptocurrency has shown increased resilience against declines. However, the absence of fresh positive developments is stifling new buying interest, leaving ETF investors as the primary group supporting the market.

儘管最近出現了調整，但比特幣的彈性是顯而易見的，特別是考慮到 2024 年觀察到的上升趨勢。新的需求領域出現在 65,000 美元左右，並且加密貨幣顯示出更強的抵禦下跌的彈性。然而，缺乏新的積極進展正在抑制新的購買興趣，使得 ETF 投資者成為支撐市場的主要群體。

The upcoming Bitcoin halving this month has been highly anticipated, but the prevailing view is that its effects are already factored into Bitcoin's price, having reached new highs before the event. Therefore, no short-term price surges are expected as a result of the halving.

本月即將到來的比特幣減半備受期待，但普遍的觀點是，其影響已經計入比特幣的價格中，在減半事件發生前已達到新高。因此，預計減半不會導致短期價格飆升。

Nevertheless, Bitcoin has experienced an unprecedented surge in demand over the past three months, fueled by institutional adoption. This surge has led to over 4% of the total Bitcoin supply being held in the spot ETF market. With the halving reducing Bitcoin's supply, its impact may be felt sooner than in previous years.

儘管如此，在機構採用的推動下，過去三個月比特幣的需求出現了前所未有的激增。這一激增導致超過 4% 的比特幣供應量被存放在現貨 ETF 市場上。隨著減半導致比特幣供應量減少，其影響可能比前幾年更早感受到。

Furthermore, strong market expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Fed, possibly in the second half of the year, along with similar expectations from the ECB, could drive increased demand for risk assets. This, in turn, may positively influence Bitcoin, potentially leading to new highs throughout the year.

此外，市場對聯準會未來可能在下半年降息的強烈預期，以及歐洲央行的類似預期，可能會推動對風險資產的需求增加。反過來，這可能會對比特幣產生積極影響，並可能導致全年新高。

Today's US nonfarm payrolls data could influence pricing, especially after the mid-week ADP Private Employment figures exceeded expectations. A continued positive trend in nonfarm payrolls may exert pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

今天的美國非農就業數據可能會影響定價，尤其是在周中 ADP 私人就業數據超出預期之後。非農業就業人口的持續正向趨勢可能會對包括比特幣在內的風險資產造成壓力。

In such a scenario, Bitcoin could trend towards the $65,000 level, with a potential reaction purchase towards $67,000 based on the short-term symmetrical triangle pattern. A weekly close above short-term EMA values around $67,000 could propel Bitcoin toward $80,000, potentially surprising investors with a breakout to the upside.

在這種情況下，比特幣可能會趨向 65,000 美元的水平，根據短期對稱三角形模式，潛在的反應購買價格可能會達到 67,000 美元。每週收盤價高於 67,000 美元左右的短期 EMA 值可能會推動比特幣漲向 80,000 美元，突破上行可能會讓投資者感到驚訝。

Conversely, close monitoring of the $65,000 limit is essential. A weekly close below this level may signal bears' dominance, potentially pushing the cryptocurrency back to the $60,000 range. A decline could lead the crypto to the next demand zone around $57,000.

相反，密切監控 65,000 美元的限額至關重要。每週收盤價低於該水平可能預示著空頭佔據主導地位，有可能將加密貨幣推回到 60,000 美元的區間。下跌可能導致加密貨幣進入下一個需求區域約 57,000 美元。

In conclusion, while Bitcoin's consolidation phase continues amid a bearish outlook, certain technical indicators suggest that the negative sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency might shift soon. The emergence of new demand areas, increased resilience against declines, and strong market expectations of future interest rate cuts could all contribute to a potential breakout in Bitcoin's price. However, close monitoring of key economic data and market indicators is crucial to determine the direction of the cryptocurrency in the coming weeks.

總之，雖然比特幣的盤整階段在看跌前景中持續，但某些技術指標表明圍繞加密貨幣的負面情緒可能很快就會改變。新需求領域的出現、抵禦下跌的能力增強以及市場對未來降息的強烈預期都可能有助於比特幣價格的潛在突破。然而，密切監控關鍵經濟數據和市場指標對於確定未來幾週加密貨幣的方向至關重要。