比特币正在攀爬，但是一些基本信号令人担忧

BTC价格正在触及新的高度。但是，一个微妙的信号挑战了这一欣快的信号。它是由Capriole在2022年设计的比特币宏指数。

Bitcoin is currently trading at all-time highs, but one key indicator is sending a worrying signal.

比特币目前正在以历史新高的高点进行交易，但是一个关键指标是发送令人担忧的信号。

It is the Bitcoin Macro Index, an index designed by Capriole in 2022 to provide a broader view of the Bitcoin trends.

它是比特币宏指数，这是Capriole在2022年设计的索引，以更广泛地了解比特币趋势。

This index, which does not include the BTC price, but rather on-chain and macroeconomic data analyzed by machine learning, has been charting lower highs since the end of 2023.

该指数不包括BTC价格，而是通过机器学习分析的链上和宏观经济数据，自2023年底以来一直在绘制较低的高点。

However, the BTC price continues to mark higher highs, setting up a bearish divergence.

但是，BTC价格继续标志着更高的高点，建立了看跌差异。

This phenomenon, which has been observed during previous cycles, suggests that the market may have reached a long-term peak.

在以前的周期中已经观察到的这种现象表明，市场可能已经达到了长期峰值。

According to Capriole founder Charles Edwards, this signal is not a positive one.

根据Capriole创始人查尔斯·爱德华兹（Charles Edwards）的说法，该信号不是一个积极的信号。

“The time frame on this chart is monthly. If the Macro Index turns positive again, then we should see the Bitcoin price trade back above the price plotted on the chart at that point in time.”

“此图表上的时间范围是每月的。如果宏指数再次转化为正面，那么我们应该看到比特币价格交易回到了该时间点上图表上绘制的价格之上。”

Other indicators also suggest that there may be some trouble brewing in the market.

其他指标还表明，市场上可能会有一些麻烦。

CryptoQuant highlighted several metrics that are currently in turbulent territory.

加密量强调了目前在动荡的领土上的几个指标。

For example, the Intermarket Factor (IFP), which serves as an indicator of market breadth, has turned red since February.

例如，自2月以来，它作为市场广度的指标的市场间因子（IFP）已变成红色。

To reverse this trend and continue the broad market rally, the IFP will need to rise above its 90-day moving average.

为了扭转这一趋势并继续进行广泛的市场集会，IFP将需要超过其90天移动平均线。

Despite these signals, there is currently no indication of a market bubble or a cycle peak.

尽管有这些信号，目前尚无市场泡沫或周期峰。

Instead, the market remains in a state of uncertainty, which is being driven by the pending Bitcoin Spot ETFs and the strong fundamental strength of the cryptocurrency market.

取而代之的是，市场仍然处于不确定性状态，这是由待处理的比特币现场ETF和加密货币市场的强大基本实力驱动的。

Crypto investors will now be keeping a close eye on the Bitcoin Macro Index to see if it can begin to rebound.

加密投资者现在将密切关注比特币宏指数，以查看是否可以开始反弹。

If the index turns positive again, then we should see the bullish trend continue. However, if the index remains in negative territory, then there is a risk of a false peak at the $110,000 level.

如果该指数再次变为积极，那么我们应该看到看涨趋势继续。但是，如果该指数仍处于负面的领域，则在110,000美元的水平下存在假峰的风险。

So, the time is not for panic, but rather for strategic vigilance.

因此，时间不是为了恐慌，而是为了战略警惕。