市场不确定性下，比特币多头面临下行压力，但买入机会迫在眉睫

在宏观经济不确定性的一个月里，比特币面临低迷，跌破了关键支撑位。然而，在看跌情绪中，短期持有者（STH）实现价格（代表近期投资者平均购买价格的指标）表明存在潜在的买入机会。目前徘徊在 59,788 美元左右，这一价格水平是比特币的关键支撑。从历史上看，当比特币交易价格高于 STH 实现价格时，短期投资者仍然有利可图，从而减少了抛售压力。

Amidst a challenging month for the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has faced significant downward pressure, testing its immediate support levels and approaching weekly lows. The confluence of macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions has exacerbated the struggles faced by Bitcoin bulls throughout April.

在加密货币市场充满挑战的一个月中，比特币（BTC）面临着巨大的下行压力，测试了其即时支撑位并接近每周低点。宏观经济不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势的共同作用加剧了比特币多头在四月份面临的困境。

Despite these bearish headwinds, a key indicator to monitor is the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, which suggests a potential buying opportunity in anticipation of a bullish reversal.

尽管存在这些看跌阻力，但需要监控的一个关键指标是短期持有者 (STH) 实现价格，这表明在预期看涨逆转时存在潜在的买入机会。

STH-Realized Price Signals Buying Opportunity

STH-已实现的价格信号买入机会

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has experienced intense liquidations of long positions, with the total liquidation value reaching close to $120 million. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have endured a sustained decline in prices, indicating robust selling pressure from buyers.

过去24小时，加密市场出现了多头头寸的密集清算，清算总价值接近1.2亿美元。比特币和以太坊的价格都持续下跌，表明来自买家的强劲抛售压力。

However, a pivotal reset may be on the horizon for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency traders. According to CryptoQuant, the STH-Realized Price for Bitcoin is flashing a bullish signal, potentially presenting a lucrative buying opportunity near current levels.

然而，对于比特币和加密货币交易者来说，关键的重置可能即将到来。据 CryptoQuant 称，比特币的 STH 实际价格正在发出看涨信号，可能在当前水平附近提供利润丰厚的买入机会。

The STH-Realized Price represents the average price at which Bitcoin was last transacted by investors who held it for a short duration, typically less than six months. This metric is critical as it reflects the cost basis of the most recent market entrants, providing insights into the price expectations and sentiment of newer participants.

STH 实现价格代表短期（通常少于六个月）持有比特币的投资者最后一次交易比特币的平均价格。该指标至关重要，因为它反映了最新市场进入者的成本基础，提供了对新参与者的价格预期和情绪的洞察。

Currently, the STH-Realized Price hovers around $59,788, indicating a crucial short-term support level for Bitcoin. If the market price remains above this level, it suggests that short-term holders are not experiencing underwater investments and are less inclined to sell at a loss, thereby reducing selling pressure on Bitcoin.

目前，STH 实际价格徘徊在 59,788 美元左右，这表明比特币的关键短期支撑位。如果市场价格保持在这一水平之上，则表明短期持有者没有经历水下投资，并且不太愿意亏本出售，从而减轻了比特币的抛售压力。

Bullish Sentiment Supported by Various Factors

多种因素支撑看涨情绪

The ongoing bullish sentiment in Bitcoin's market is supported by several factors, including:

比特币市场持续的看涨情绪受到多种因素的支撑，包括：

• Institutional adoption: The launch of a Hong Kong spot ETF has attracted institutional interest in Bitcoin.
• Increased retail interest: Retail investors have shown renewed enthusiasm for Bitcoin, as evidenced by a surge in 30-day rolling wallet balances.
• Macroeconomic factors: Inflation concerns have positioned Bitcoin as a potential hedge, akin to "digital gold."

Despite the recent downturn, Bitcoin's performance has outpaced its showing in November 2022, which coincided with the peak of the previous bear market. This suggests a glimmer of hope amidst the current challenges.

机构采用：香港现货 ETF 的推出吸引了机构对比特币的兴趣。散户兴趣增加：散户投资者对比特币表现出新的热情，30 天滚动钱包余额激增就证明了这一点。宏观经济因素：通胀担忧加剧将比特币定位为一种潜在的对冲工具，类似于“数字黄金”。尽管最近出现低迷，但比特币的表现已经超过了 2022 年 11 月的表现，当时正值上一次熊市的顶峰。这表明在当前的挑战中出现了一线希望。

Interest Among Retail Investors

散户投资者的兴趣

Notably, smaller retail investors are demonstrating renewed interest in Bitcoin. "Shrimp" holders, those with less than 1 BTC, are currently accumulating approximately 12.2k BTC per month, highlighting a bullish sentiment among smaller investors.

值得注意的是，规模较小的散户投资者对比特币表现出了新的兴趣。 “虾”持有者（即持有少于 1 BTC 的人）目前每月积累约 1.22 万 BTC，凸显了中小投资者的看涨情绪。

Future Price Trajectory

未来价格轨迹

Bitcoin has been oscillating within a range of $59,000 to $65,000 for several days, reflecting a stalemate between bullish and bearish sentiments regarding the next market direction.

比特币连续几天在 59,000 美元至 65,000 美元的区间内波动，反映出对下一个市场方向的看涨和看跌情绪之间陷入僵局。

Currently, bears aim to push the price below $60,000 to solidify their bearish dominance. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $62,166, down over 1.6% in the past 24 hours.

目前，空头的目标是将价格推至 60,000 美元以下，以巩固其空头主导地位。截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 62,166 美元，在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.6%。

Within the current range, traders typically buy near support levels and sell near resistance levels. The $59K-$60K mark is anticipated to be fiercely defended by bulls, as a breach below this level could trigger a deeper correction towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $54,300, potentially delaying the initiation of the next upward phase.

在当前范围内，交易者通常在支撑位附近买入并在阻力位附近卖出。预计 59,000-60,000 美元大关将受到多头的猛烈防守，因为跌破该水平可能会引发向 54,300 美元的 61.8% 斐波那契回撤位的更深调整，从而可能推迟下一个上涨阶段的启动。

Conversely, a rebound from the current level or the $59K support would signal that bullish momentum remains present at lower levels, potentially driving the BTC/USDT pair towards $67K and subsequently to the upper resistance at $73,777. A breakout and close above this threshold would signify the commencement of the next upward phase towards $84,000.

相反，从当前水平或 59,000 美元支撑位反弹将表明看涨势头在较低水平仍然存在，可能推动 BTC/USDT 货币对升至 67,000 美元，随后升至上方阻力位 73,777 美元。突破并收于该门槛之上将意味着下一个上涨阶段的开始，目标是 84,000 美元。

However, technical indicators such as declining moving averages and an RSI hovering around the oversold region indicate a current advantage for bears.

然而，移动平均线下降和RSI徘徊在超卖区域等技术指标表明空头目前具有优势。