市場不確定性下，比特幣多頭面臨下行壓力，但買入機會迫在眉睫

在宏觀經濟不確定性的一個月裡，比特幣面臨低迷，跌破了關鍵支撐位。然而，在看跌情緒中，短期持有者（STH）實現價格（代表近期投資者平均購買價格的指標）表明存在潛在的買入機會。目前徘徊在 59,788 美元左右，這一價格水準是比特幣的關鍵支撐。從歷史上看，當比特幣交易價格高於 STH 實現價格時，短期投資者仍然有利可圖，從而減少了拋售壓力。

Amidst a challenging month for the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has faced significant downward pressure, testing its immediate support levels and approaching weekly lows. The confluence of macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions has exacerbated the struggles faced by Bitcoin bulls throughout April.

在加密貨幣市場充滿挑戰的一個月中，比特幣（BTC）面臨著巨大的下行壓力，測試了其即時支撐位並接近每週低點。宏觀經濟不確定性和地緣政治緊張局勢的共同作用加劇了比特幣多頭在四月面臨的困境。

Despite these bearish headwinds, a key indicator to monitor is the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, which suggests a potential buying opportunity in anticipation of a bullish reversal.

儘管存在這些看跌阻力，但需要監控的關鍵指標是短期持有者 (STH) 實現價格，這表明在預期看漲逆轉時存在潛在的買入機會。

STH-Realized Price Signals Buying Opportunity

STH-已實現的價格訊號買入機會

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has experienced intense liquidations of long positions, with the total liquidation value reaching close to $120 million. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have endured a sustained decline in prices, indicating robust selling pressure from buyers.

過去24小時，加密市場出現了多頭部位的密集清算，清算總價值接近1.2億美元。比特幣和以太坊的價格都持續下跌，顯示來自買家的強勁拋售壓力。

However, a pivotal reset may be on the horizon for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency traders. According to CryptoQuant, the STH-Realized Price for Bitcoin is flashing a bullish signal, potentially presenting a lucrative buying opportunity near current levels.

然而，對於比特幣和加密貨幣交易者來說，關鍵的重置可能即將到來。據 CryptoQuant 稱，比特幣的 STH 實際價格正在發出看漲信號，可能在當前水平附近提供利潤豐厚的買入機會。

The STH-Realized Price represents the average price at which Bitcoin was last transacted by investors who held it for a short duration, typically less than six months. This metric is critical as it reflects the cost basis of the most recent market entrants, providing insights into the price expectations and sentiment of newer participants.

STH 實現價格代表短期（通常少於六個月）持有比特幣的投資者最後一次交易比特幣的平均價格。該指標至關重要，因為它反映了最新市場進入者的成本基礎，提供了對新參與者的價格預期和情緒的洞察。

Currently, the STH-Realized Price hovers around $59,788, indicating a crucial short-term support level for Bitcoin. If the market price remains above this level, it suggests that short-term holders are not experiencing underwater investments and are less inclined to sell at a loss, thereby reducing selling pressure on Bitcoin.

目前，STH 實際價格徘徊在 59,788 美元左右，這表明比特幣的關鍵短期支撐位。如果市場價格保持在這一水平之上，則表示短期持有者沒有經歷水下投資，並且不太願意虧本出售，從而減輕了比特幣的拋售壓力。

Bullish Sentiment Supported by Various Factors

多種因素支撐看漲情緒

The ongoing bullish sentiment in Bitcoin's market is supported by several factors, including:

比特幣市場持續的看漲情緒受到多種因素的支撐，包括：

• Institutional adoption: The launch of a Hong Kong spot ETF has attracted institutional interest in Bitcoin.
• Increased retail interest: Retail investors have shown renewed enthusiasm for Bitcoin, as evidenced by a surge in 30-day rolling wallet balances.
• Macroeconomic factors: Inflation concerns have positioned Bitcoin as a potential hedge, akin to "digital gold."

Despite the recent downturn, Bitcoin's performance has outpaced its showing in November 2022, which coincided with the peak of the previous bear market. This suggests a glimmer of hope amidst the current challenges.

機構採用：香港現貨ETF 的推出吸引了機構對比特幣的興趣。擔憂加劇將比特幣定位為潛在的對沖工具，類似於「數位黃金」。 儘管最近出現低迷，但比特幣的表現已經超過了 2022 年 11 月的表現，當時正值上一次熊市的頂峰。這表明在當前的挑戰中出現了一線希望。

Interest Among Retail Investors

散戶的興趣

Notably, smaller retail investors are demonstrating renewed interest in Bitcoin. "Shrimp" holders, those with less than 1 BTC, are currently accumulating approximately 12.2k BTC per month, highlighting a bullish sentiment among smaller investors.

值得注意的是，規模較小的散戶投資者對比特幣表現出了新的興趣。 「蝦」持有者（即持有少於 1 BTC 的人）目前每月累積約 1.22 萬 BTC，凸顯了中小投資者的看漲情緒。

Future Price Trajectory

未來價格軌跡

Bitcoin has been oscillating within a range of $59,000 to $65,000 for several days, reflecting a stalemate between bullish and bearish sentiments regarding the next market direction.

比特幣連續幾天在 59,000 美元至 65,000 美元的區間內波動，反映出對下一個市場方向的看漲和看跌情緒之間陷入僵局。

Currently, bears aim to push the price below $60,000 to solidify their bearish dominance. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $62,166, down over 1.6% in the past 24 hours.

目前，空頭的目標是將價格推至 60,000 美元以下，以鞏固其空頭主導地位。截至撰寫本文時，BTC 交易價格為 62,166 美元，在過去 24 小時內下跌超過 1.6%。

Within the current range, traders typically buy near support levels and sell near resistance levels. The $59K-$60K mark is anticipated to be fiercely defended by bulls, as a breach below this level could trigger a deeper correction towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $54,300, potentially delaying the initiation of the next upward phase.

在當前範圍內，交易者通常在支撐位附近買入並在阻力位附近賣出。預計 59,000-60,000 美元大關將受到多頭的猛烈防守，因為跌破該水平可能會引發向 54,300 美元的 61.8% 斐波那契回撤位的更深調整，從而可能推遲下一個上漲階段的啟動。

Conversely, a rebound from the current level or the $59K support would signal that bullish momentum remains present at lower levels, potentially driving the BTC/USDT pair towards $67K and subsequently to the upper resistance at $73,777. A breakout and close above this threshold would signify the commencement of the next upward phase towards $84,000.

相反，從當前水平或 59,000 美元支撐位反彈將表明看漲勢頭在較低水平仍然存在，可能推動 BTC/USDT 貨幣對升至 67,000 美元，隨後升至上方阻力位 73,777 美元。突破並收於該門檻之上將意味著下一個上漲階段的開始，目標是 84,000 美元。

However, technical indicators such as declining moving averages and an RSI hovering around the oversold region indicate a current advantage for bears.

然而，移動平均線下降和RSI徘徊在超賣區域等技術指標表明空頭目前具有優勢。