比特币多头要小心：创纪录的高资金利率暗示回调 6 万美元

比特币投资者应谨慎行事，因为最近融资利率的飙升预示着潜在的调整。尽管近期出现波动，但价格仍保持相对稳定，回撤不超过20%。然而，创纪录的高融资利率表明大量交易者押注空头头寸，这表明价格可能回落至 60,000 美元左右。

Bitcoin Bulls Beware: Near Record High Funding Rate Signals Potential Pullback to $60,000

比特币多头要小心：接近创纪录的高融资利率预示着可能回调至 60,000 美元

The cryptocurrency market has been experiencing significant volatility in recent weeks, with Bitcoin (BTC) facing headwinds and correcting more than 10% from its all-time high of $73,500. Amidst the market turbulence, on-chain analysis has revealed a concerning indicator for Bitcoin bulls: funding rates have reached a record-high level, signaling caution for any potential rally ahead.

最近几周，加密货币市场经历了大幅波动，比特币 (BTC) 面临逆风，从 73,500 美元的历史高位回调了 10% 以上。在市场动荡中，链上分析揭示了比特币多头的一个令人担忧的指标：融资利率已达到历史新高，这表明对未来任何潜在反弹持谨慎态度。

Funding rates represent the sentiment of traders in the perpetual swaps market and are proportional to the number of contracts. Positive funding rates suggest that long-position traders are prevailing and are willing to pay funding to short traders. Currently, Bitcoin funding rates are at their highest level since April 2021, a period that was followed by a significant market correction.

资金费率代表了永续掉期市场中交易者的情绪，与合约数量成正比。正的资金费率表明多头交易者占主导地位，并且愿意向空头交易者支付资金。目前，比特币融资利率处于 2021 年 4 月以来的最高水平，随后市场出现大幅调整。

The previous instance of funding rates reaching such heights occurred in April 2021. Subsequently, Bitcoin experienced a collapse from above $60,000 to below $30,000 in just three months. This historical precedent has raised concerns among analysts and traders, who fear that the current high funding rates could signal a similar market downturn.

上一次资金费率达到如此高的水平发生在 2021 年 4 月。随后，比特币在短短三个月内从 6 万美元以上暴跌至 3 万美元以下。这一历史先例引起了分析师和交易员的担忧，他们担心当前的高融资利率可能预示着类似的市场低迷。

Cryptocurrency analyst IncomeSharks has shared a chart that aligns the current Bitcoin price action with the channel from the low to the high and finds that it corresponds almost perfectly with a price target of $100,000. While this analysis suggests potential upside ahead, IncomeSharks also acknowledges that selling pressure can act as a bullish catalyst and that seasoned market participants often thrive amidst fear and doubt. The chart from IncomeSharks indicates that the BTC price could temporarily dip below $60,000 before resuming its upward journey to $100K.

加密货币分析师 IncomeSharks 分享了一张图表，该图表将当前比特币价格走势与从低到高的通道进行了对齐，发现它与 100,000 美元的价格目标几乎完全一致。虽然这一分析表明未来存在潜在的上涨空间，但 IncomeSharks 也承认，抛售压力可以充当看涨催化剂，而经验丰富的市场参与者往往在恐惧和怀疑中蓬勃发展。 IncomeSharks 的图表显示，BTC 价格可能会暂时跌破 60,000 美元，然后恢复上涨至 10 万美元。

In the near term, the Bitcoin price might continue to face headwinds due to factors such as the drying up inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Although net inflows remain positive, daily inflows have dropped significantly.

短期内，由于现货比特币 ETF 资金流入枯竭等因素，比特币价格可能继续面临阻力。尽管净流入仍为正值，但日流入量已大幅下降。

Despite the current downward pressure, many analysts remain bullish about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, particularly in the aftermath of the upcoming halving event. The halving, which is scheduled to occur in 2024, will reduce the issuance of new Bitcoins by half and is historically associated with a rise in the price.

尽管目前面临下行压力，但许多分析师仍然看好比特币的长期前景，特别是在即将到来的减半事件之后。减半计划于 2024 年发生，将使新比特币的发行量减少一半，并且历史上与价格上涨有关。

On-chain analyst Checkmate, the pseudonymous lead analyst at Glassnode, has presented data indicating that BTC price drawdowns have barely reached 20%. This suggests that the market has been absorbing selling pressure effectively and that sellers have not been able to inflict significant damage on the price.

Glassnode 的匿名首席分析师、链上分析师 Checkmate 公布的数据显示，BTC 价格下跌幅度仅达到 20%。这表明市场一直在有效地吸收抛售压力，卖家未能对价格造成重大损害。

Despite the near-term challenges, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term trajectory. They believe that the market fundamentals remain strong and that the upcoming halving event could provide a catalyst for further price appreciation.

尽管存在近期挑战，分析师仍然对比特币的长期发展轨迹持乐观态度。他们认为市场基本面依然强劲，即将到来的减半事件可能为价格进一步升值提供催化剂。

However, it is important for investors to exercise caution, particularly in light of the elevated funding rates. Bulls should be aware that a sharp correction could be on the horizon and should adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

然而，投资者必须保持谨慎，特别是考虑到融资利率的上升。多头应该意识到，可能即将出现大幅调整，并应相应调整其交易策略。