比特幣多頭要小心：創紀錄的高資金利率暗示回調 6 萬美元

比特幣投資者應謹慎行事，因為最近融資利率的飆升預示著潛在的調整。儘管近期出現波動，但價格仍維持相對穩定，回檔不超過20%。然而，創紀錄的高融資利率表明大量交易者押注空頭頭寸，這表明價格可能回落至 6 萬美元左右。

Bitcoin Bulls Beware: Near Record High Funding Rate Signals Potential Pullback to $60,000

比特幣多頭要小心：接近創紀錄的高融資利率預示著可能回調至 6 萬美元

The cryptocurrency market has been experiencing significant volatility in recent weeks, with Bitcoin (BTC) facing headwinds and correcting more than 10% from its all-time high of $73,500. Amidst the market turbulence, on-chain analysis has revealed a concerning indicator for Bitcoin bulls: funding rates have reached a record-high level, signaling caution for any potential rally ahead.

最近幾週，加密貨幣市場經歷了大幅波動，比特幣 (BTC) 面臨逆風，從 73,500 美元的歷史高點回調了 10% 以上。在市場動盪中，鏈上分析揭示了比特幣多頭的一個令人擔憂的指標：融資利率已達到歷史新高，這表明對未來任何潛在反彈持謹慎態度。

Funding rates represent the sentiment of traders in the perpetual swaps market and are proportional to the number of contracts. Positive funding rates suggest that long-position traders are prevailing and are willing to pay funding to short traders. Currently, Bitcoin funding rates are at their highest level since April 2021, a period that was followed by a significant market correction.

資金費率代表了永續掉期市場中交易者的情緒，與合約數量成正比。正的資金費率表明多頭交易者占主導地位，並且願意向空頭交易者支付資金。目前，比特幣融資利率處於 2021 年 4 月以來的最高水平，隨後市場出現大幅調整。

The previous instance of funding rates reaching such heights occurred in April 2021. Subsequently, Bitcoin experienced a collapse from above $60,000 to below $30,000 in just three months. This historical precedent has raised concerns among analysts and traders, who fear that the current high funding rates could signal a similar market downturn.

上一次資金費率達到如此高的水平發生在 2021 年 4 月。隨後，比特幣在短短三個月內從 6 萬美元以上暴跌至 3 萬美元以下。這一歷史先例引起了分析師和交易員的擔憂，他們擔心當前的高融資利率可能預示著類似的市場低迷。

Cryptocurrency analyst IncomeSharks has shared a chart that aligns the current Bitcoin price action with the channel from the low to the high and finds that it corresponds almost perfectly with a price target of $100,000. While this analysis suggests potential upside ahead, IncomeSharks also acknowledges that selling pressure can act as a bullish catalyst and that seasoned market participants often thrive amidst fear and doubt. The chart from IncomeSharks indicates that the BTC price could temporarily dip below $60,000 before resuming its upward journey to $100K.

加密貨幣分析師 IncomeSharks 分享了一張圖表，該圖表將當前比特幣價格走勢與從低到高的通道進行了對齊，發現它與 100,000 美元的價格目標幾乎完全一致。雖然這項分析顯示未來存在潛在的上漲空間，但 IncomeSharks 也承認，拋售壓力可以充當看漲催化劑，而經驗豐富的市場參與者往往在恐懼和懷疑中蓬勃發展。 IncomeSharks 的圖表顯示，BTC 價格可能會暫時跌破 6 萬美元，然後恢復上漲至 10 萬美元。

In the near term, the Bitcoin price might continue to face headwinds due to factors such as the drying up inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Although net inflows remain positive, daily inflows have dropped significantly.

短期內，由於現貨比特幣 ETF 資金流入枯竭等因素，比特幣價格可能繼續面臨阻力。儘管淨流入仍為正值，但每日流入量已大幅下降。

Despite the current downward pressure, many analysts remain bullish about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, particularly in the aftermath of the upcoming halving event. The halving, which is scheduled to occur in 2024, will reduce the issuance of new Bitcoins by half and is historically associated with a rise in the price.

儘管目前面臨下行壓力，但許多分析師仍然看好比特幣的長期前景，特別是在即將到來的減半事件之後。減半計畫於 2024 年發生，將使新比特幣的發行量減少一半，並且歷史上與價格上漲有關。

On-chain analyst Checkmate, the pseudonymous lead analyst at Glassnode, has presented data indicating that BTC price drawdowns have barely reached 20%. This suggests that the market has been absorbing selling pressure effectively and that sellers have not been able to inflict significant damage on the price.

Glassnode 的匿名首席分析師、鏈上分析師 Checkmate 公佈的數據顯示，BTC 價格下跌幅度僅達 20%。這表明市場一直在有效吸收拋售壓力，賣家未能對價格造成重大損害。

Despite the near-term challenges, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term trajectory. They believe that the market fundamentals remain strong and that the upcoming halving event could provide a catalyst for further price appreciation.

儘管有近期挑戰，分析師仍對比特幣的長期發展軌跡持樂觀態度。他們認為市場基本面依然強勁，即將到來的減半事件可能為價格進一步升值提供催化劑。

However, it is important for investors to exercise caution, particularly in light of the elevated funding rates. Bulls should be aware that a sharp correction could be on the horizon and should adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

然而，投資者必須保持謹慎，特別是考慮到融資利率的上升。多頭應該意識到，可能即將出現大幅調整，並應相應調整其交易策略。