比特币的牛市：进站还是范式转变？ Santiment 的指标是关键

比特币的看涨势头最近减弱，引发了人们对加密货币牛市周期进展的担忧。 4 月 12 日的闪电崩盘导致该加密货币的价值从 70,000 美元跌至 67,000 美元以下。链上分析平台 Santiment 已将平均美元投资年龄指标确定为恢复牛市的潜在指标。从历史上看，平均美元投资年龄线的下降与之前的比特币牛市周期有关。

Bitcoin's Bull Run: A Pause or a Reset? Santiment's Metric Holds the Key

比特币牛市：暂停还是重置？ Santiment 的指标是关键

The once-unstoppable momentum of Bitcoin's price has faltered in recent weeks, casting doubt on the continuation of the cryptocurrency's bull run. While a flash crash on Friday, April 12th, saw the premier cryptocurrency's value plummet from $70,000 to below $67,000, analysts now scrutinize a key metric to determine whether the bull run is merely pausing or shifting gears.

比特币价格一度不可阻挡的势头在最近几周出现了动摇，人们对这种加密货币牛市的持续性产生了怀疑。虽然 4 月 12 日星期五的闪崩导致这种主要加密货币的价值从 70,000 美元暴跌至 67,000 美元以下，但分析师现在正在仔细审查一个关键指标，以确定牛市是否只是暂停或转变。

Bitcoin's Rocky Road to All-Time Highs

比特币创历史新高的坎坷之路

Bitcoin's recent inability to reclaim its all-time high of $73,737, set in mid-March, has fueled concerns about the sustainability of its price surge. On-chain analytics platform Santiment has zeroed in on a specific Bitcoin metric that could potentially signal a resumption of the bull run.

比特币最近未能收复 3 月中旬创下的历史高点 73,737 美元，引发了人们对其价格飙升可持续性的担忧。链上分析平台 Santiment 已将注意力集中在一个特定的比特币指标上，该指标可能预示着牛市的恢复。

Mean Dollar Invested Age: A Signal of Market Dynamics

平均美元投资年龄：市场动态的信号

The Mean Dollar Invested Age metric, as defined by Santiment, monitors the average age of investments in an asset held in the same wallet. A rising Mean Dollar Invested Age indicates that investments are becoming more stagnant, with old coins remaining in the same wallets. Conversely, a decreasing Mean Dollar Invested Age suggests that investments are re-entering circulation, signaling increased network activity.

Santiment 定义的平均美元投资年龄指标监控同一钱包中持有的资产的平均投资年龄。平均美元投资年龄的上升表明投资变得更加停滞，旧硬币仍然留在同一个钱包中。相反，平均美元投资年龄的下降表明投资正在重新进入流通，这表明网络活动增加。

Historical Patterns and Current Observations

历史模式和当前观察

Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a falling Mean Dollar Invested Age line during previous bull cycles, including the current one that commenced in late October 2023. However, Santiment notes that Bitcoin's Mean Dollar Invested Age line has plateaued over the past couple of weeks, a surprising development given the imminent Bitcoin halving event.

从历史上看，在之前的牛市周期中，比特币的平均美元投资年龄线一直在下降，包括 2023 年 10 月下旬开始的当前牛市周期。然而，Santiment 指出，比特币的平均美元投资年龄线在过去几周内已趋于稳定，这令人惊讶鉴于即将发生的比特币减半事件。

Halving Anticipation and Market Sentiment

预期和市场情绪减半

The Bitcoin halving, scheduled to take place in approximately a week, will halve the miners' reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This highly anticipated event has fueled bullish sentiment among investors who believe it will contribute to Bitcoin's value appreciation in 2024.

比特币减半预计将在大约一周内发生，矿工的奖励将从 6.25 BTC 减半至 3.125 BTC。这一备受期待的事件激发了投资者的看涨情绪，他们相信这将有助于比特币在 2024 年升值。

Santiment's Insights and Investor Outlook

Santiment 的见解和投资者展望

According to Santiment's latest report, investors should pay close attention to Bitcoin's Mean Dollar Invested Age metric. A resumption of the downward trend in the line would indicate that major stakeholders, such as whales, are actively moving coins into circulation. This would suggest a reinvigoration of the bull run.

根据 Santiment 的最新报告，投资者应密切关注比特币的平均美元投资年龄指标。该线恢复下降趋势表明鲸鱼等主要利益相关者正在积极将代币投入流通。这将表明牛市将重燃活力。

Current Market Snapshot

当前市场概况

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading around $66,548, marking a significant 6% price decline over the past 24 hours. Despite the recent downturn, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term trajectory of the cryptocurrency.

截至撰写本文时，比特币的交易价格约为 66,548 美元，过去 24 小时内价格大幅下跌 6%。尽管最近出现低迷，但分析师仍对加密货币的长期轨迹持谨慎乐观态度。

Conclusion

结论

The pause in Bitcoin's upward momentum has raised questions about the continuation of the bull run. However, Santiment's Mean Dollar Invested Age metric provides valuable insights into market dynamics. A resumption of the downward trend in this metric would signal a re-emergence of the bull run and reinforce the confidence of investors banking on Bitcoin's long-term growth.

比特币上涨势头的暂停引发了人们对牛市能否持续的质疑。然而，Santiment 的平均美元投资年龄指标为市场动态提供了宝贵的见解。该指标恢复下降趋势将标志着牛市的重新出现，并增强投资者对比特币长期增长的信心。