2025年：年比特币（BTC）成为变革性的储备资产？

Fidelity的一份新研究报告引发了加密货币社区及以后的讨论，这表明2025年可能是变革的一年

A new research report from Fidelity has sparked discussions within the cryptocurrency community and beyond, suggesting that 2025 could be a transformative year for Bitcoin (BTC). According to the study, central banks and sovereign governments may begin to buy Bitcoin on a large scale, potentially surpassing the inflow from newly launched spot Bitcoin ETFs. This shift in investment strategy could have massive implications for the value of Bitcoin. But how realistic is this scenario, and what would it mean for the future of Bitcoin?

Fidelity的一份新研究报告引发了加密货币社区及以后的讨论，这表明2025年可能是比特币（BTC）的变革一年。根据这项研究，中央银行和主权政府可能会开始大规模购买比特币，从而超过新推出的现货比特币ETF的流入。投资策略的这种转变可能会对比特币的价值产生巨大影响。但是，这种情况有多现实，对比特币的未来意味着什么？

The idea of central banks and governments accumulating Bitcoin gained traction following the U.S. government’s proposal to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. This proposal would see the U.S. purchasing Bitcoin in a systematic manner, fundamentally changing how sovereign nations view the cryptocurrency. Currently, the U.S. is the largest sovereign holder of Bitcoin, but there has been no formal strategy in place for acquiring it until now.

根据美国政府建立战略性比特币储备的提议，中央银行和政府积累的比特币的想法受到了关注。该提案将以系统的方式看到美国购买比特币，从根本上改变主权国家如何看待加密货币。目前，美国是比特币最大的主权持有人，但迄今为止还没有采取正式策略。

The BITCOIN Act of 2024 lays out a plan for the U.S. to buy up to one million Bitcoins over a five-year period, which represents about 5% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. This plan would position the U.S. as a Bitcoin powerhouse, ensuring that it holds a significant portion of the world’s Bitcoin. Some estimates even suggest that the U.S. could purchase as much as 550 Bitcoins per day until it accumulates a total of 4 million Bitcoins.

2024年的《比特币法案》制定了一项计划，使美国在五年内购买多达一百万个比特币，这约占比特币循环供应的5％。该计划将把美国定位为比特币的强大企业，以确保它拥有世界比特币的很大一部分。一些估计甚至表明，美国每天可以购买多达550个比特币，直到累积400万比特币为止。

While this idea of a strategic Bitcoin reserve might sound ambitious, the potential consequences could have a far-reaching impact globally. The U.S. — as the largest economy in the world — has the power to set trends, and if the U.S. starts purchasing Bitcoin in large amounts, other nations may follow suit. As Fidelity points out, this could trigger a phenomenon referred to as “political and economic game theory,” or what many in the crypto world recognize as FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).

尽管这种战略性比特币储备的想法听起来可能雄心勃勃，但潜在的后果在全球范围内可能会产生深远的影响。作为世界上最大的经济体 - 美国有能力设定趋势，如果美国开始大量购买比特币，其他国家可能会效仿。正如富达指出的那样，这可能会引发一种称为“政治和经济游戏理论”的现象，或者在加密货币世界中的许多人认为是FOMO（害怕错过）。

If the U.S. secures such a massive Bitcoin reserve, other countries may feel compelled to act similarly to ensure they don’t fall behind in the global financial system. Countries that do not adopt Bitcoin could risk being left out of the growing digital economy, creating a competitive pressure for nations to accumulate Bitcoin for geopolitical and economic reasons.

如果美国获得了如此庞大的比特币储备，其他国家可能会感到不得不采取类似的行动，以确保它们不会落后于全球金融体系。不采用比特币的国家可能有可能被排除在不断增长的数字经济之外，从而为各国出于地缘政治和经济原因累积比特币的竞争压力。

If the U.S. and other nations move forward with these large-scale Bitcoin purchases, the demand for Bitcoin would increase exponentially. The result could be a massive price surge, as the supply of Bitcoin becomes even more constrained. This would likely drive up the value of Bitcoin, making it a central asset in global reserves.

如果美国和其他国家通过这些大规模的比特币购买前进，对比特币的需求将呈指​​数增长。随着比特币的供应变得更加限制，结果可能是巨大的价格上涨。这可能会推动比特币的价值，使其成为全球储备中的核心资产。

In fact, the amount of money flowing into Bitcoin through sovereign purchases could potentially outpace the investments made via spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have already seen significant interest. As the game shifts from speculative investments to institutional accumulation, the potential for Bitcoin to skyrocket in value becomes increasingly plausible.

实际上，通过君主购买流入比特币的金额可能会超过通过现货比特币ETF进行的投资，这些投资已经引起了人们的兴趣。随着游戏从投机投资转变为机构积累，比特币在价值上飞涨的潜力变得越来越合理。

However, there are still many uncertainties surrounding this proposal. While the U.S. government’s interest in Bitcoin is growing, the official creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve remains uncertain. Furthermore, the Trump administration seems to be distancing itself from the idea of a “Bitcoin reserve,” instead considering it more as a “national digital asset stockpile.” This could mean that other digital assets besides Bitcoin may be included in the U.S. government’s plans, further complicating the situation.

但是，该提议仍然存在许多不确定性。尽管美国政府对比特币的兴趣正在增长，但战略比特币储备的正式创建仍然不确定。此外，特朗普政府似乎正在远离“比特币储备”的想法，而是将其更多地视为“国家数字资产库存”。这可能意味着除了比特币以外的其他数字资产可能包括在美国政府的计划中，从而使情况变得更加复杂。

Moreover, the global financial system’s adaptation to Bitcoin as a reserve asset poses challenges. If Bitcoin were to be adopted at such a scale, it would require changes in how currencies and central bank reserves are structured globally. This would be an unprecedented shift with potentially massive implications for traditional fiat currencies.

此外，全球金融体系对比特币的改编会带来挑战。如果要以这样的规模采用比特币，则需要更改货币和中央银行储量在全球结构上的结构。这将是一个前所未有的转变，对传统法定货币有潜在的巨大影响。

Could 2025 be the turning point for Bitcoin? While the idea of central banks and sovereign governments acquiring Bitcoin is still in its early stages, the notion that these entities could begin buying Bitcoin in the next few years is becoming more likely. Whether this plan will actually come to fruition is uncertain, but the potential impact on the market is clear: an influx of government-backed Bitcoin purchases could skyrocket its value and solidify its place in the global financial landscape.

2025可以是比特币的转折点吗？尽管中央银行和主权政府获得比特币的想法仍处于早期阶段，但这些实体可以在未来几年开始购买比特币的观念越来越有可能。该计划是否真正实现了，尚不确定，但对市场的潜在影响很明显：政府支持的比特币购买的涌入可能会激增其价值并巩固其在全球金融环境中的地位。