比特币 (BTC) 飙升至 109,356 美元的历史新高：下一步何去何从？

1 月 20 日，比特币 (BTC) 飙升至 109,356 美元的历史新高。此次反弹源于强劲的链上指标，包括持有者盈利能力的提高和大量的交易所外流。

Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high of $109,356 on Jan. 20, continuing its record-breaking rally. The surge follows strong on-chain metrics, including increasing holder profitability and significant exchange outflows. Macro optimism under President Trump’s crypto-friendly policies has also contributed to Bitcoin’s sustained upward momentum.

1 月 20 日，比特币价格创下 109,356 美元的历史新高，继续破纪录的涨势。这一激增遵循强大的链上指标，包括持有人盈利能力的提高和大量的交易所外流。特朗普总统的加密货币友好政策下的宏观乐观情绪也促进了比特币的持续上涨势头。

However, retail traders may now begin booking profits, posing a risk of a sell-off. Ultimately, institutional investors and private whale wallets will likely play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin’s next move.

然而，零售交易商现在可能开始获利了结，从而带来抛售风险。最终，机构投资者和私人鲸鱼钱包可能会在决定比特币下一步走势方面发挥关键作用。

Bitcoin price reached a record high of $109,356, pushing its daily price above critical resistance levels.

比特币价格创下 109,356 美元的历史新高，推动其每日价格突破关键阻力位。

According to Fibonacci retracement levels, the immediate resistance is around $112,300, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level from the recent high-low range. A successful breakout above this level could open the path to testing the next resistance level, the 0.786 level, near $121,700.

根据斐波那契回撤位，直接阻力位约为 112,300 美元，与近期高点至低点范围内的 0.618 斐波那契水平一致。如果成功突破该水平，可能会打开测试下一个阻力位 0.786 水平（接近 121,700 美元）的道路。

The price currently trades far above key exponential moving averages (EMAs). The 20-day EMA (red) provides support near the $99,400, while the 100-day EMA (blue) acts as support near the $90,450 price level. The BTC/USD pair could maintain its upward trajectory if Bitcoin sustains its position above the 20-day EMA. The 200-day EMA, situated near $89,800, signals a healthy long-term trend.

目前价格远高于关键指数移动平均线 (EMA)。 20 日均线（红色）在 99,400 美元附近提供支撑，而 100 日均线（蓝色）在 90,450 美元价格水平附近提供支撑。如果比特币维持在 20 日均线上方，BTC/美元货币对可能会维持其上涨轨迹。 200 日均线位于 89,800 美元附近，标志着健康的长期趋势。

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 67.01, reflecting a strong but not overbought condition. This suggests room for further upside without immediate risk of a correction due to overextension. However, any failure to hold above $108,000 could trigger a retracement to the support levels.

RSI（相对强弱指数）为 67.01，反映强劲但未超买的状况。这表明还有进一步上涨的空间，而不会因过度扩张而立即出现修正风险。然而，如果未能守住 108,000 美元上方，可能会引发回调至支撑位。

Volume analysis shows steady buying pressure, which supports the rally. A spike in volume could confirm a breakout above the resistance levels. Conversely, declining volume near resistance could indicate weakening momentum.

成交量分析显示买盘压力稳定，支撑涨势。成交量激增可能会确认突破阻力位。相反，成交量在阻力位附近下降可能表明势头减弱。

Bitcoin’s record-breaking rally coincides with increased market speculation around U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies. Trump’s administration has signaled a pro-cryptocurrency stance, with plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and appoint crypto-friendly officials to key regulatory positions. Notably, the nomination of Paul Atkins to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is anticipated to foster a more accommodating regulatory environment for digital assets.

比特币破纪录的上涨恰逢市场对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普支持加密货币政策的猜测增加。特朗普政府已经表明了支持加密货币的立场，计划建立比特币战略储备，并任命对加密货币友好的官员担任关键监管职位。值得注意的是，提名保罗·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins）领导美国证券交易委员会（SEC）预计将为数字资产营造一个更加宽松的监管环境。

Polymarket data highlights the growing anticipation of significant crypto-related actions under Trump’s administration.

Polymarket 数据突显了人们对特朗普政府采取重大加密货币相关行动的预期日益增长。

A key market event is the 55% probability that Trump will establish a U.S. Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office. Such a move would cement Bitcoin as a strategic asset, potentially driving institutional demand and fostering broader adoption.

一个关键的市场事件是，特朗普有 55% 的可能性在上任后 100 天内建立美国比特币储备。此举将巩固比特币作为一种战略资产的地位，有可能推动机构需求并促进更广泛的采用。

Additionally, Polymarket reflects a 45% probability of Trump issuing a cryptocurrency-related executive order on Day 1 of his presidency. This speculation, combined with his campaign rhetoric emphasizing blockchain innovation and Bitcoin’s economic potential, has fueled the bullish sentiment.

此外，Polymarket 反映出特朗普在就任总统的第一天发布与加密货币相关的行政命令的可能性为 45%。这种猜测，加上他强调区块链创新和比特币经济潜力的竞选言论，加剧了看涨情绪。

These developments align with macroeconomic cues favoring Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve’s recent dovish policy stance has weakened the U.S. dollar, while global uncertainties, including tightening monetary policies in Europe and Asia, have redirected capital flows toward alternative assets like Bitcoin.

这些发展与有利于比特币的宏观经济线索相一致。美联储近期的鸽派政策立场削弱了美元，而全球不确定性（包括欧洲和亚洲收紧货币政策）已将资本流向比特币等另类资产。

On a macroeconomic level, the dollar has exhibited defensive behavior as traders brace for Trump’s return to the White House. The yen has strengthened in anticipation of the Bank of Japan hiking interest rates, potentially raising borrowing costs to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Cryptocurrency investors are anticipating executive orders from Trump to reduce regulatory barriers and promote digital assets, including a digital token launched by Trump that surged in value.

在宏观经济层面，随着交易员为特朗普重返白宫做好准备，美元表现出防御行为。由于预期日本央行加息，日元走强，可能将借贷成本提高至 2008 年金融危机以来的最高水平。加密货币投资者预计特朗普将发布行政命令，以减少监管障碍并推广数字资产，其中包括特朗普推出的价值飙升的数字代币。