比特幣 (BTC) 飆升至 109,356 美元的歷史新高：下一步何去何從？

1 月 20 日，比特幣 (BTC) 飆升至 109,356 美元的歷史新高。

Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high of $109,356 on Jan. 20, continuing its record-breaking rally. The surge follows strong on-chain metrics, including increasing holder profitability and significant exchange outflows. Macro optimism under President Trump’s crypto-friendly policies has also contributed to Bitcoin’s sustained upward momentum.

1 月 20 日，比特幣價格創下 109,356 美元的歷史新高，繼續破紀錄的漲勢。這一激增遵循強大的鏈上指標，包括持有者盈利能力的提高和大量的交易所外流。川普總統的加密貨幣友善政策下的宏觀樂觀情緒也促進了比特幣的持續上漲勢頭。

However, retail traders may now begin booking profits, posing a risk of a sell-off. Ultimately, institutional investors and private whale wallets will likely play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin’s next move.

然而，零售交易商現在可能開始獲利了結，從而帶來拋售風險。最終，機構投資者和私人鯨魚錢包可能會在決定比特幣下一步走勢方面發揮關鍵作用。

Bitcoin price reached a record high of $109,356, pushing its daily price above critical resistance levels.

比特幣價格創下 109,356 美元的歷史新高，推動其每日價格突破關鍵阻力位。

According to Fibonacci retracement levels, the immediate resistance is around $112,300, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level from the recent high-low range. A successful breakout above this level could open the path to testing the next resistance level, the 0.786 level, near $121,700.

根據斐波那契回檔位，直接阻力位約為 112,300 美元，與近期高點至低點範圍內的 0.618 斐波那契水準一致。如果成功突破該水平，可能會打開測試下一個阻力位 0.786 水平（接近 121,700 美元）的道路。

The price currently trades far above key exponential moving averages (EMAs). The 20-day EMA (red) provides support near the $99,400, while the 100-day EMA (blue) acts as support near the $90,450 price level. The BTC/USD pair could maintain its upward trajectory if Bitcoin sustains its position above the 20-day EMA. The 200-day EMA, situated near $89,800, signals a healthy long-term trend.

目前價格遠高於關鍵指數移動平均線 (EMA)。 20 日均線（紅色）在 99,400 美元附近提供支撐，而 100 日均線（藍色）在 90,450 美元價格水平附近提供支撐。如果比特幣維持在 20 日均線上方，比特幣/美元貨幣對可能會維持其上漲軌跡。 200 日均線位於 89,800 美元附近，標誌著健康的長期趨勢。

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 67.01, reflecting a strong but not overbought condition. This suggests room for further upside without immediate risk of a correction due to overextension. However, any failure to hold above $108,000 could trigger a retracement to the support levels.

RSI（相對強弱指數）為 67.01，反映強勁但未超買的狀況。這顯示還有進一步上漲的空間，而不會因過度擴張而立即出現修正風險。然而，如果未能守住 108,000 美元上方，可能會引發回調至支撐位。

Volume analysis shows steady buying pressure, which supports the rally. A spike in volume could confirm a breakout above the resistance levels. Conversely, declining volume near resistance could indicate weakening momentum.

成交量分析顯示買盤壓力穩定，支撐漲勢。成交量激增可能會確認突破阻力位。相反，成交量在阻力位附近下降可能表示勢頭減弱。

Bitcoin’s record-breaking rally coincides with increased market speculation around U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies. Trump’s administration has signaled a pro-cryptocurrency stance, with plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and appoint crypto-friendly officials to key regulatory positions. Notably, the nomination of Paul Atkins to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is anticipated to foster a more accommodating regulatory environment for digital assets.

比特幣破紀錄的上漲恰逢市場對美國總統川普支持加密貨幣政策的猜測增加。川普政府已經表明了支持加密貨幣的立場，計劃建立比特幣戰略儲備，並任命對加密貨幣友好的官員擔任關鍵監管職位。值得注意的是，提名保羅·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins）領導美國證券交易委員會（SEC）預計將為數位資產創造一個更寬鬆的監管環境。

Polymarket data highlights the growing anticipation of significant crypto-related actions under Trump’s administration.

Polymarket 數據突顯了人們對川普政府採取重大加密貨幣相關行動的預期日益增長。

A key market event is the 55% probability that Trump will establish a U.S. Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office. Such a move would cement Bitcoin as a strategic asset, potentially driving institutional demand and fostering broader adoption.

一個關鍵的市場事件是川普有 55% 的可能性在上任後 100 天內建立美國比特幣儲備。此舉將鞏固比特幣作為一種戰略資產的地位，有可能推動機構需求並促進更廣泛的採用。

Additionally, Polymarket reflects a 45% probability of Trump issuing a cryptocurrency-related executive order on Day 1 of his presidency. This speculation, combined with his campaign rhetoric emphasizing blockchain innovation and Bitcoin’s economic potential, has fueled the bullish sentiment.

此外，Polymarket 反映出川普在就任總統的第一天發布與加密貨幣相關的行政命令的可能性為 45%。這種猜測，加上他強調區塊鏈創新和比特幣經濟潛力的競選言論，加劇了看漲情緒。

These developments align with macroeconomic cues favoring Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve’s recent dovish policy stance has weakened the U.S. dollar, while global uncertainties, including tightening monetary policies in Europe and Asia, have redirected capital flows toward alternative assets like Bitcoin.

這些發展與有利於比特幣的宏觀經濟線索一致。聯準會近期的鴿派政策立場削弱了美元，而全球不確定性（包括歐洲和亞洲收緊貨幣政策）已將資本流向比特幣等另類資產。

On a macroeconomic level, the dollar has exhibited defensive behavior as traders brace for Trump’s return to the White House. The yen has strengthened in anticipation of the Bank of Japan hiking interest rates, potentially raising borrowing costs to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Cryptocurrency investors are anticipating executive orders from Trump to reduce regulatory barriers and promote digital assets, including a digital token launched by Trump that surged in value.

在宏觀經濟層面，隨著交易員為川普重返白宮做好準備，美元表現出防禦行為。由於預期日本央行升息，日圓走強，可能將借貸成本提高至 2008 年金融危機以來的最高水準。加密貨幣投資者預計川普將發布行政命令，以減少監管障礙並推廣數位資產，包括川普推出的價值飆升的數位代幣。