比特币（BTC）难以保持势头，分析师因死叉的出现而预测看跌前景

在过去 24 小时内，比特币 [BTC] 经历了强劲上涨，重回 10 万美元水平。

Bitcoin [BTC] began 2025 on a bullish note, reclaiming the $100k level after a brief pullback. However, a closer examination of the charts revealed a potential mid to long-term price stagnation.

比特币 [BTC] 2025 年开局看涨，在短暂回调后重回 10 万美元水平。然而，对图表的仔细检查显示出潜在的中长期价格停滞。

CryptoQuant analyst Yansei Dent highlighted this possibility, pointing out the emergence of a “dead cross” on Bitcoin’s active addresses.

CryptoQuant 分析师 Yansei Dent 强调了这种可能性，指出比特币活跃地址上出现了“死叉”。

Death Cross Emerges on Bitcoin Active Addresses

比特币活跃地址出现死亡交叉

比特币活跃地址出现死亡交叉

Dent’s analysis showed that Bitcoin has entered a stagnation phase, with active addresses signaling a weakening momentum.

Dent 的分析表明，比特币已进入停滞阶段，活跃地址表明势头减弱。

A death cross has emerged on the 30-Day Moving Average (DMA) and 365 DMA. This signals a decline in short-term activity among investors.

30 日移动平均线 (DMA) 和 365 日移动平均线出现死亡交叉。这表明投资者的短期活动有所下降。

Historically, such patterns in active addresses have coincided with bearish market conditions, acting as a negative indicator.

从历史上看，活跃地址的这种模式与看跌的市场状况一致，充当负面指标。

Moreover, the analysis showed that the transaction count has been declining since Q4 2024. This further reinforces the likelihood of mid to long-term market stagnation.

此外，分析显示，自 2024 年第四季度以来，交易数量一直在下降。这进一步加剧了市场中长期停滞的可能性。

Hence, with these conditions still prevailing, BTC could struggle to maintain an uptrend until the overall market signals improvement.

因此，在这些情况仍然普遍存在的情况下，比特币可能难以维持上升趋势，直到整体市场出现改善迹象。

Weakening Market Fundamentals: Death Cross, Declining NVT Golden Cross

市场基本面疲软：死亡十字、NVT 金十字下跌

市场基本面疲软：死亡十字、NVT 金十字下跌

A closer examination of the BTC charts revealed several indicators pointing toward weakening market fundamentals.

对比特币图表的仔细检查显示，几个指标表明市场基本面正在疲软。

For starters, we can observe this short-term bearishness through the declining NVT Golden Cross. This has declined to reach the negative zone of -1.1, at press time.

首先，我们可以通过 NVT Golden Cross 的下跌来观察这种短期看跌情绪。截至发稿时，该数字已降至 -1.1 的负值区域。

When the NVT golden cross reaches negative, it suggests a decrease in Bitcoin’s market value relative to transaction activity. This indicates a divergence between the price and network activity.

当 NVT 金叉达到负值时，表明比特币的市场价值相对于交易活动有所下降。这表明价格和网络活动之间存在差异。

This reduced network activity is further confirmed by a negative price DAA Divergence. This shows that market fundamentals are weakening and the current BTC value might be unsustainable.

负价格 DAA 背离进一步证实了网络活动的减少。这表明市场基本面正在减弱，当前的BTC价值可能难以为继。

Finally, Bitcoin’s fund market premium has declined to -0.08. When the fund market premium reaches this level, it indicates that futures prices are trading below spot prices. This suggests a higher demand for short positions.

最后，比特币的基金市场溢价已降至-0.08。当基金市场溢价达到该水平时，表明期货价格低于现货价格。这表明对空头头寸的需求更高。

Overall, despite Bitcoin reclaiming $100k, the markets are not setting up for a sustained uptrend. The current gains are largely speculative and driven by the U.S. inflation data.

总体而言，尽管比特币重回 10 万美元，但市场并未为持续上涨趋势做好准备。目前的涨幅主要是投机性的，是由美国通胀数据推动的。

Hence, with weakening fundamentals, BTC will likely continue to consolidate within a range of $94k and $100k.

因此，随着基本面疲软，BTC 可能会继续在 9.4 万美元到 10 万美元的区间内盘整。