比特幣（BTC）難以維持勢頭，分析師因死叉的出現而預測看跌前景

在過去 24 小時內，比特幣 [BTC] 經歷了強勁上漲，重回 10 萬美元水平。

Bitcoin [BTC] began 2025 on a bullish note, reclaiming the $100k level after a brief pullback. However, a closer examination of the charts revealed a potential mid to long-term price stagnation.

比特幣 [BTC] 2025 年開局看漲，在短暫回檔後重回 10 萬美元水準。然而，對圖表的仔細檢查顯示出潛在的中長期價格停滯。

CryptoQuant analyst Yansei Dent highlighted this possibility, pointing out the emergence of a “dead cross” on Bitcoin’s active addresses.

CryptoQuant 分析師 Yansei Dent 強調了這種可能性，指出比特幣活躍地址上出現了「死叉」。

Death Cross Emerges on Bitcoin Active Addresses

比特幣活躍地址出現死亡交叉

比特幣活躍地址出現死亡交叉

Dent’s analysis showed that Bitcoin has entered a stagnation phase, with active addresses signaling a weakening momentum.

Dent 的分析表明，比特幣已進入停滯階段，活躍地址表明勢頭減弱。

A death cross has emerged on the 30-Day Moving Average (DMA) and 365 DMA. This signals a decline in short-term activity among investors.

30 日移動平均線 (DMA) 和 365 日移動平均線出現死亡交叉。這顯示投資者的短期活動有所下降。

Historically, such patterns in active addresses have coincided with bearish market conditions, acting as a negative indicator.

從歷史上看，活躍地址的這種模式與看跌的市場狀況一致，作為負面指標。

Moreover, the analysis showed that the transaction count has been declining since Q4 2024. This further reinforces the likelihood of mid to long-term market stagnation.

此外，分析顯示，自 2024 年第四季以來，交易數量一直在下降。

Hence, with these conditions still prevailing, BTC could struggle to maintain an uptrend until the overall market signals improvement.

因此，在這些情況仍然普遍存在的情況下，比特幣可能難以維持上升趨勢，直到整體市場出現改善跡象。

Weakening Market Fundamentals: Death Cross, Declining NVT Golden Cross

市場基本面疲軟：死亡十字、NVT 金十字下跌

市場基本面疲軟：死亡十字、NVT 金十字下跌

A closer examination of the BTC charts revealed several indicators pointing toward weakening market fundamentals.

對比特幣圖表的仔細檢查顯示，幾個指標顯示市場基本面正在疲軟。

For starters, we can observe this short-term bearishness through the declining NVT Golden Cross. This has declined to reach the negative zone of -1.1, at press time.

首先，我們可以透過 NVT Golden Cross 的下跌來觀察這種短期看跌情緒。截至發稿時，該數字已降至 -1.1 的負值區域。

When the NVT golden cross reaches negative, it suggests a decrease in Bitcoin’s market value relative to transaction activity. This indicates a divergence between the price and network activity.

當 NVT 金叉達到負值時，表示比特幣的市場價值相對於交易活動有所下降。這表明價格和網路活動之間存在差異。

This reduced network activity is further confirmed by a negative price DAA Divergence. This shows that market fundamentals are weakening and the current BTC value might be unsustainable.

負價格 DAA 背離進一步證實了網路活動的減少。這顯示市場基本面正在減弱，目前的BTC價值可能難以為繼。

Finally, Bitcoin’s fund market premium has declined to -0.08. When the fund market premium reaches this level, it indicates that futures prices are trading below spot prices. This suggests a higher demand for short positions.

最後，比特幣的基金市場溢價已降至-0.08。當基金市場溢價達到此水準時，表示期貨價格低於現貨價格。這顯示對空頭部位的需求更高。

Overall, despite Bitcoin reclaiming $100k, the markets are not setting up for a sustained uptrend. The current gains are largely speculative and driven by the U.S. inflation data.

總體而言，儘管比特幣重回 10 萬美元，但市場並未為持續上漲趨勢做好準備。目前的漲幅主要是投機性的，是由美國通膨數據推動的。

Hence, with weakening fundamentals, BTC will likely continue to consolidate within a range of $94k and $100k.

因此，隨著基本面疲軟，比特幣可能會繼續在 9.4 萬美元到 10 萬美元的區間內盤整。