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比特币(BTC)与美股近期呈现出负相关关系,比特币的走势往往与传统市场相反。
As Bitcoin (BTC) trades within a narrow range, its price movements relative to the U.S. stock market, especially the S&P 500 (SPX), have garnered attention. While traditional markets have experienced a swift recovery, Bitcoin’s price action has diverged, lagging behind the broader market rally. This dynamic has prompted some analysts to anticipate a potential shift in the correlation between BTC and stock indices.
由于比特币(BTC)窄幅波动,其相对于美国股市,尤其是标准普尔500指数(SPX)的价格走势备受关注。尽管传统市场经历了迅速复苏,但比特币的价格走势却出现了分化,落后于大盘的上涨。这种动态促使一些分析师预计比特币和股指之间的相关性可能会发生变化。
Prominent analyst and trader Daan on X recently highlighted this divergence by overlaying the BTC/USDT futures chart with SPX prices. His analysis underscores the contrasting price movements between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, with the latter recovering quickly from recent lows.
X 上的著名分析师和交易员 Daan 最近通过将 BTC/USDT 期货图表与 SPX 价格叠加来强调了这种差异。他的分析强调了比特币和标准普尔 500 指数之间的对比价格走势,后者从近期低点迅速反弹。
This divergence has sparked speculation among traders, suggesting that Bitcoin could be poised for a breakout to the upside. However, it is crucial to note that this correlation is not inherently bullish on its own.
这种差异引发了交易员的猜测,表明比特币可能会突破上行。然而,值得注意的是,这种相关性本身并不是看涨的。
Another key analyst, Caleb Franzen, recently shared data revealing Bitcoin’s negative correlation with major stock indices. Specifically, Franzen points out that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 ($QQQ) currently stands at -27%.
另一位重要分析师 Caleb Franzen 最近分享的数据显示,比特币与主要股指呈负相关。具体而言,Franzen 指出,比特币与纳斯达克 100 指数($QQQ)之间的 90 天相关性目前为 -27%。
This negative correlation suggests that as tech stocks recover, Bitcoin has been moving in the opposite direction, which can signify unique market dynamics. However, some traders believe that a positive correlation with tech stocks could signal a bullish trend for BTC.
这种负相关性表明,随着科技股的复苏,比特币一直在向相反的方向发展,这可能意味着独特的市场动态。然而,一些交易员认为,与科技股的正相关性可能预示着比特币的看涨趋势。
While periods of negative correlation between Bitcoin and stocks are not inherently bullish, historical evidence suggests that positive market shifts often follow such phases. The critical point for investors is to monitor a potential reversal of this correlation—when Bitcoin begins to move in tandem with the Nasdaq-100 ($QQQ) once again.
虽然比特币和股票之间的负相关时期并不本质上是看涨的,但历史证据表明,积极的市场转变往往会伴随着这样的阶段。对于投资者来说,关键点是监测这种相关性的潜在逆转——当比特币开始再次与纳斯达克 100 指数($QQQ)同步波动时。
If Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks turns positive, it could signal a strengthening market and a possible uptrend for BTC. This shift could provide a key indicator for timing potential entry points in the market.
如果比特币与科技股的相关性转为正值,则可能预示着市场走强以及比特币可能出现的上升趋势。这种转变可以为确定市场潜在进入点的时机提供关键指标。
BTC Price Trading Below A Key Indicator
比特币价格交易低于关键指标
Bitcoin trades at $59,350, below the critical daily 200-day moving average (MA) at $62,915. This moving average is a key indicator many analysts use to gauge market trends. When BTC’s price is below the daily 200 MA, it typically suggests a downtrend or a significant correction. Conversely, trading above this level indicates market strength and bullish momentum.
比特币交易价格为 59,350 美元,低于关键的每日 200 天移动平均线 (MA) 62,915 美元。该移动平均线是许多分析师用来衡量市场趋势的关键指标。当 BTC 价格低于每日 200 MA 时,通常表明存在下降趋势或大幅回调。相反,高于该水平的交易表明市场走强和看涨势头。
For Bitcoin to confirm the continuation of its bull market, it needs to reclaim the daily 200 MA and consistently close above it. This would signal a potential shift in trend, providing confidence to traders and investors that the bullish phase is still intact.
比特币要确认其牛市的延续,需要收复日线 200 移动均线并持续收于该移动线之上。这将标志着趋势可能发生转变,让交易者和投资者相信看涨阶段仍然完好无损。
Currently, BTC is hovering around the key psychological level of $60,000, and the market remains in a consolidation phase after enduring months of uncertainty and volatility.
目前,BTC徘徊在60,000美元的关键心理水平附近,市场在经历了数月的不确定性和波动性后仍处于盘整阶段。
For the bullish scenario to unfold, Bitcoin must break above $63,000, retaking the daily 200 MA and surpassing the August 8th local high of $62,729. This would mark a significant recovery and indicate that the market is regaining its strength.
为了实现看涨局面,比特币必须突破 63,000 美元,重新夺回日线 200 MA,并突破 8 月 8 日的局部高点 62,729 美元。这将标志着显着复苏,并表明市场正在恢复强势。
On the other hand, if BTC fails to close above $57,500 in the coming days, it could signal further downside pressure, potentially leading to a pullback to sub-$50,000 levels. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can regain its upward momentum or if more bearish pressure lies ahead.
另一方面,如果 BTC 在未来几天未能收于 57,500 美元以上,则可能预示着进一步的下行压力,可能导致回调至 50,000 美元以下的水平。未来几天对于决定比特币是否能够恢复上行势头或未来是否会面临更多看跌压力至关重要。
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