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比特幣(BTC)與美股近期呈現負相關關係,比特幣的趨勢往往與傳統市場相反。
As Bitcoin (BTC) trades within a narrow range, its price movements relative to the U.S. stock market, especially the S&P 500 (SPX), have garnered attention. While traditional markets have experienced a swift recovery, Bitcoin’s price action has diverged, lagging behind the broader market rally. This dynamic has prompted some analysts to anticipate a potential shift in the correlation between BTC and stock indices.
由於比特幣(BTC)窄幅波動,其相對於美國股市,尤其是標準普爾500指數(SPX)的價格走勢備受關注。儘管傳統市場經歷了迅速復甦,但比特幣的價格走勢卻出現了分化,落後於大盤的上漲。這種動態促使一些分析師預期比特幣和股指之間的相關性可能會改變。
Prominent analyst and trader Daan on X recently highlighted this divergence by overlaying the BTC/USDT futures chart with SPX prices. His analysis underscores the contrasting price movements between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, with the latter recovering quickly from recent lows.
X 上的著名分析師和交易員 Daan 最近透過將 BTC/USDT 期貨圖表與 SPX 價格疊加來強調了這種差異。他的分析強調了比特幣和標準普爾 500 指數之間的對比價格走勢,後者從近期低點迅速反彈。
This divergence has sparked speculation among traders, suggesting that Bitcoin could be poised for a breakout to the upside. However, it is crucial to note that this correlation is not inherently bullish on its own.
這種差異引發了交易員的猜測,表明比特幣可能會突破上行。然而,值得注意的是,這種相關性本身並不是看漲的。
Another key analyst, Caleb Franzen, recently shared data revealing Bitcoin’s negative correlation with major stock indices. Specifically, Franzen points out that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 ($QQQ) currently stands at -27%.
另一位重要分析師 Caleb Franzen 最近分享的數據顯示,比特幣與主要股指呈負相關。具體而言,Franzen 指出,比特幣與納斯達克 100 指數($QQQ)之間的 90 天相關性目前為 -27%。
This negative correlation suggests that as tech stocks recover, Bitcoin has been moving in the opposite direction, which can signify unique market dynamics. However, some traders believe that a positive correlation with tech stocks could signal a bullish trend for BTC.
這種負相關性表明,隨著科技股的復甦,比特幣一直朝著相反的方向發展,這可能意味著獨特的市場動態。然而,一些交易員認為,與科技股的正相關性可能預示著比特幣的看漲趨勢。
While periods of negative correlation between Bitcoin and stocks are not inherently bullish, historical evidence suggests that positive market shifts often follow such phases. The critical point for investors is to monitor a potential reversal of this correlation—when Bitcoin begins to move in tandem with the Nasdaq-100 ($QQQ) once again.
雖然比特幣和股票之間的負相關時期並不本質上是看漲的,但歷史證據表明,積極的市場轉變往往伴隨著這樣的階段。對投資者來說,關鍵點是監測這種相關性的潛在逆轉——當比特幣開始再次與納斯達克 100 指數($QQQ)同步波動時。
If Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks turns positive, it could signal a strengthening market and a possible uptrend for BTC. This shift could provide a key indicator for timing potential entry points in the market.
如果比特幣與科技股的相關性轉為正值,則可能預示著市場走強以及比特幣可能出現的上升趨勢。這種轉變可以為確定市場潛在進入點的時機提供關鍵指標。
BTC Price Trading Below A Key Indicator
比特幣價格交易低於關鍵指標
Bitcoin trades at $59,350, below the critical daily 200-day moving average (MA) at $62,915. This moving average is a key indicator many analysts use to gauge market trends. When BTC’s price is below the daily 200 MA, it typically suggests a downtrend or a significant correction. Conversely, trading above this level indicates market strength and bullish momentum.
比特幣交易價格為 59,350 美元,低於關鍵的每日 200 天移動平均線 (MA) 62,915 美元。這條移動平均線是許多分析師用來衡量市場趨勢的關鍵指標。當 BTC 價格低於每日 200 MA 時,通常表示有下降趨勢或大幅回檔。相反,高於該水平的交易表明市場走強和看漲勢頭。
For Bitcoin to confirm the continuation of its bull market, it needs to reclaim the daily 200 MA and consistently close above it. This would signal a potential shift in trend, providing confidence to traders and investors that the bullish phase is still intact.
比特幣要確認其多頭市場的延續,需要收復日線 200 移動均線並持續收於此移動線之上。這將標誌著趨勢可能發生轉變,讓交易者和投資者相信看漲階段仍然完好無損。
Currently, BTC is hovering around the key psychological level of $60,000, and the market remains in a consolidation phase after enduring months of uncertainty and volatility.
目前,BTC徘徊在60,000美元的關鍵心理水平附近,市場在經歷了數月的不確定性和波動性後仍處於盤整階段。
For the bullish scenario to unfold, Bitcoin must break above $63,000, retaking the daily 200 MA and surpassing the August 8th local high of $62,729. This would mark a significant recovery and indicate that the market is regaining its strength.
為了實現看漲局面,比特幣必須突破 63,000 美元,重新奪回日線 200 MA,並突破 8 月 8 日的局部高點 62,729 美元。這將標誌著顯著復甦,並表明市場正在恢復強勢。
On the other hand, if BTC fails to close above $57,500 in the coming days, it could signal further downside pressure, potentially leading to a pullback to sub-$50,000 levels. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can regain its upward momentum or if more bearish pressure lies ahead.
另一方面,如果 BTC 在未來幾天未能收於 57,500 美元以上,則可能預示著進一步的下行壓力,可能導致回調至 50,000 美元以下的水平。未來幾天對於決定比特幣是否能夠恢復上行勢頭或未來是否會面臨更多看跌壓力至關重要。
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