分析师关注 CME 缺口和就职前市场暴跌，比特币 (BTC) 可能跌至 77,000 美元

一些分析师担心比特币可能会因芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的缺口而导致价格大幅下跌，从而引发崩盘。

Some crypto analysts have expressed their concerns over a possible Bitcoin crash, which could be driven by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap leading to a drastic drop in its price.

一些加密货币分析师表达了他们对比特币可能崩溃的担忧，这可能是由芝加哥商品交易所（CME）缺口导致其价格大幅下跌造成的。

As Bitcoin is yet to fill the gap, several crypto traders have predicted that it might push the primary cryptocurrency closer to the critical CME gap, suggesting that its price could go as low as $77,000 per coin.

由于比特币尚未填补这一缺口，一些加密货币交易员预测，它可能会推动主要加密货币更接近 CME 的关键缺口，这表明其价格可能会低至每枚 77,000 美元。

Bitcoin Could Slide To $77,000

比特币可能跌至 77,000 美元

According to crypto analyst Egrag Crypto, the massive corrections that Bitcoin has been experiencing could lead to a plunge to the $77,000 mark.

加密货币分析师 Egrag Crypto 表示，比特币经历的大规模调整可能会导致比特币暴跌至 77,000 美元大关。

Egrag added that seven significant drops have impacted the flagship cryptocurrency since October 2022, and the average drop across these events is approximately 23.53%.

Egrag 补充说，自 2022 年 10 月以来，旗舰加密货币已发生七次大幅下跌，这些事件的平均跌幅约为 23.53%。

“From the current high of around 108,975, we're looking at a potential drop to the lower end of the CME GAP (between 77K-80K). This represents a 25% decline, aligning well with the average drop observed during this cycle,” stated Egrag in a post.

“从当前约 108,975 点的高点来看，我们预计可能会跌至 CME 缺口的下限（77K-80K 之间）。这代表着 25% 的下降，与本周期观察到的平均下降非常吻合，”Egrag 在一篇帖子中表示。

Egrag also noted that the current 21 Weekly EMA is around $80,000, suggesting that “another flash crash could be on the horizon.”

Egrag 还指出，当前 21 周 EMA 约为 80,000 美元，这表明“另一场闪电崩盘可能即将到来”。

CME Gap At $80,000

CME 缺口达 80,000 美元

Another crypto analyst, XForceGlobal, highlighted to traders that “there's a 1D CME gap at $80,000.”

另一位加密货币分析师 XForceGlobal 向交易者强调，“一维 CME 缺口为 80,000 美元。”

Historically, 90% of daily CME gaps larger than have been eventually filled since 2018, according to XForceGlobal.

根据 XForceGlobal 的数据，从历史上看，自 2018 年以来，90% 的每日 CME 缺口最终都被填补。

However, the crypto analyst noted that it is challenging to predict the timing and method of filling CME gaps.

然而，加密货币分析师指出，预测填补 CME 缺口的时间和方法具有挑战性。

“The tricky part with CME gaps is that their timing and method of filling remain largely unpredictable,” stated XForceGlobal in a post.

XForceGlobal 在一篇文章中表示：“CME 缺口的棘手之处在于，填补缺口的时间和方法在很大程度上仍然不可预测。”

The crypto analyst sees two possible scenarios to fill the CME gaps. In one scenario, XForceGlobal suggests it could be filed through a deep wave or wave-4 correction, bringing Bitcoin down to the $77,000 to $80,000 level.

加密货币分析师认为有两种可能的情况可以填补 CME 的空白。在一种情况下，XForceGlobal 表示，可能会通过深波或第 4 波修正来进行调整，使比特币跌至 77,000 美元至 80,000 美元的水平。

In another scenario, it can be filled “at a later stage via the assumed 1-2 correction after we finally finish off this bull run's impulse,” a scenario which might result in the BTC to plummet to $46,000, according to XForceGlobal.

根据 XForceGlobal 的说法，在另一种情况下，它可以“在我们最终结束这次牛市冲动后，通过假设的 1-2 修正”来填补，这种情况可能会导致 BTC 暴跌至 46,000 美元。

A Market Dump In January?

一月份市场暴跌？

Egrag believes that market makers might use the upcoming inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump to trigger selling pressure for Bitcoin, contributing to its imminent crash.

Egrag 认为，做市商可能会利用当选总统唐纳德·特朗普即将就职的机会引发比特币的抛售压力，从而导致其即将崩溃。

“Market makers are known for seizing opportunities during crises. Expect a market dump on Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025). This could be the perfect local top for a sell-off, likely leaving many newcomers in a panic,” stated the crypto analyst.

“做市商以在危机期间抓住机会而闻名。预计就职日（2025 年 1 月 20 日）市场将出现抛售。这可能是抛售的完美本地顶部，可能会让许多新来者陷入恐慌，”这位加密货币分析师表示。

Egrag outlined two scenarios that might unfold from the current market condition, suggesting that in one scenario, Bitcoin could pump to $120,000 and later experience a dump to the CME GAP before “resuming the bull run in 2025.”

Egrag 概述了当前市场状况可能出现的两种情况，表明在一种情况下，比特币可能会涨至 12 万美元，然后在“2025 年恢复牛市”之前经历 CME GAP 的暴跌。

In another possible scenario, the crypto analyst said that BTC could drop to the CME gap of $70,000 to $75,000 level before the resumption of the bull run.

这位加密货币分析师表示，在另一种可能的情况下，在牛市恢复之前，BTC 可能会跌至 CME 70,000 美元至 75,000 美元的水平。

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

精选图片来自 Pexels，图表来自 TradingView