分析師關注 CME 缺口和就職前市場暴跌，比特幣 (BTC) 可能跌至 77,000 美元

一些分析師擔心比特幣可能會因芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的缺口而導致價格大幅下跌，進而引發崩盤。

Some crypto analysts have expressed their concerns over a possible Bitcoin crash, which could be driven by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap leading to a drastic drop in its price.

一些加密貨幣分析師表達了他們對比特幣可能崩潰的擔憂，這可能是由芝加哥商品交易所（CME）缺口導致其價格大幅下跌所造成的。

As Bitcoin is yet to fill the gap, several crypto traders have predicted that it might push the primary cryptocurrency closer to the critical CME gap, suggesting that its price could go as low as $77,000 per coin.

由於比特幣尚未填補這一缺口，一些加密貨幣交易員預測，它可能會推動主要加密貨幣更接近 CME 的關鍵缺口，這表明其價格可能會低至每枚 77,000 美元。

Bitcoin Could Slide To $77,000

比特幣可能跌至 77,000 美元

According to crypto analyst Egrag Crypto, the massive corrections that Bitcoin has been experiencing could lead to a plunge to the $77,000 mark.

加密貨幣分析師 Egrag Crypto 表示，比特幣經歷的大規模調整可能會導致比特幣暴跌至 77,000 美元大關。

Egrag added that seven significant drops have impacted the flagship cryptocurrency since October 2022, and the average drop across these events is approximately 23.53%.

Egrag 補充說，自 2022 年 10 月以來，旗艦加密貨幣已發生七次大幅下跌，這些事件的平均跌幅約為 23.53%。

“From the current high of around 108,975, we're looking at a potential drop to the lower end of the CME GAP (between 77K-80K). This represents a 25% decline, aligning well with the average drop observed during this cycle,” stated Egrag in a post.

「從目前約 108,975 點的高點來看，我們預計可能會跌至 CME 缺口的下限（77K-80K 之間）。這代表著 25% 的下降，與本週期觀察到的平均下降非常吻合，」Egrag 在一篇文章中表示。

Egrag also noted that the current 21 Weekly EMA is around $80,000, suggesting that “another flash crash could be on the horizon.”

Egrag 還指出，目前 21 週 EMA 約為 80,000 美元，這表明「另一場閃電崩盤可能即將到來」。

CME Gap At $80,000

CME 缺口達 80,000 美元

Another crypto analyst, XForceGlobal, highlighted to traders that “there's a 1D CME gap at $80,000.”

另一位加密貨幣分析師 XForceGlobal 向交易員強調，“一維 CME 缺口為 80,000 美元。”

Historically, 90% of daily CME gaps larger than have been eventually filled since 2018, according to XForceGlobal.

根據 XForceGlobal 的數據，從歷史上看，自 2018 年以來，90% 的每日 CME 缺口最終都被填補。

However, the crypto analyst noted that it is challenging to predict the timing and method of filling CME gaps.

然而，加密貨幣分析師指出，預測填補 CME 缺口的時間和方法具有挑戰性。

“The tricky part with CME gaps is that their timing and method of filling remain largely unpredictable,” stated XForceGlobal in a post.

XForceGlobal 在一篇文章中表示：“CME 缺口的棘手之處在於，填補缺口的時間和方法在很大程度上仍然不可預測。”

The crypto analyst sees two possible scenarios to fill the CME gaps. In one scenario, XForceGlobal suggests it could be filed through a deep wave or wave-4 correction, bringing Bitcoin down to the $77,000 to $80,000 level.

加密貨幣分析師認為有兩種可能的情況可以填補 CME 的空白。在一種情況下，XForceGlobal 表示，可能會透過深波或第 4 波修正來進行調整，使比特幣跌至 77,000 美元至 80,000 美元的水平。

In another scenario, it can be filled “at a later stage via the assumed 1-2 correction after we finally finish off this bull run's impulse,” a scenario which might result in the BTC to plummet to $46,000, according to XForceGlobal.

根據 XForceGlobal 的說法，在另一種情況下，它可以「在我們最終結束這次牛市衝動後，透過假設的 1-2 修正」來填補，這種情況可能會導致 BTC 暴跌至 46,000 美元。

A Market Dump In January?

一月市場暴跌？

Egrag believes that market makers might use the upcoming inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump to trigger selling pressure for Bitcoin, contributing to its imminent crash.

Egrag 認為，做市商可能會利用當選總統唐納德·川普即將就職的機會引發比特幣的拋售壓力，導致其即將崩潰。

“Market makers are known for seizing opportunities during crises. Expect a market dump on Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025). This could be the perfect local top for a sell-off, likely leaving many newcomers in a panic,” stated the crypto analyst.

「做市商以在危機期間抓住機會而聞名。預計就職日（2025 年 1 月 20 日）市場將出現拋售。這可能是拋售的完美本地頂部，可能會讓許多新手陷入恐慌，」這位加密貨幣分析師表示。

Egrag outlined two scenarios that might unfold from the current market condition, suggesting that in one scenario, Bitcoin could pump to $120,000 and later experience a dump to the CME GAP before “resuming the bull run in 2025.”

Egrag 概述了當前市場狀況可能出現的兩種情況，表明在一種情況下，比特幣可能會漲至 12 萬美元，然後在「2025 年恢復牛市」之前經歷 CME GAP 的暴跌。

In another possible scenario, the crypto analyst said that BTC could drop to the CME gap of $70,000 to $75,000 level before the resumption of the bull run.

這位加密貨幣分析師表示，在另一種可能的情況下，在多頭市場恢復之前，BTC 可能會跌至 CME 70,000 美元至 75,000 美元的水平。

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

精選圖片來自 Pexels，圖表來自 TradingView