比特币（BTC）信号全务浪潮，累积左右$ 10万美元至关重要

比特币[BTC]目前处于去杠杆化过程中，正如17个主要交易所的90天汇总开放利息三角洲所表明的那样。

output: As Bitcoin [BTC] continues to navigate the market, several key indicators and trends are unfolding, impacting the price movements and providing insights into the broader market dynamics.

输出：随着比特币[BTC]继续导航市场，几个关键指标和趋势正在发展，影响价格变动并提供对更广泛的市场动态的见解。

According to the 90-day Aggregated Open Interest Delta, major exchanges are indicating a strong deleveraging trend. This usually signals an upcoming price drop or extended sideways movement in response to traders closing or liquidating their positions.

根据90天的开放利息三角洲，主要交易所表明，去杠杆化的趋势很强。这通常标志着即将到来的价格下跌或延长侧向运动，以响应交易者关闭或清算其头寸。

This trend is particularly evident in the Open Interest to Market Cap ratio, which has risen sharply since early 2024. This indicates a higher market risk for Bitcoin compared to the more balanced conditions during the 2021 Bull Run.

自2024年初以来，与市值的开放兴趣与市值的兴趣急剧上升。这表明比特币的市场风险更高，与2021年公牛运行期间更加平衡的情况相比，比特币的市场风险更高。

Recent activities show significant deleveraging, signaling a BTC wave of liquidations and the closure of institutional positions — akin to a liquidity reset. This higher ratio could elevate the risk of further price drops, impacting those in long positions.

最近的活动显示出明显的去杠杆化，信号是BTC的清算浪潮和机构位置的关闭，类似于流动性重置。这个较高的比率可能会提高价格下降的风险，从而影响那些处于长位置的风险。

Assessing liquidity zones and Trader Sentiment Gap

评估流动性区和交易者情绪差距

Further analysis reveals significant liquidity is pooled at $93,700 and $98,800. Following yesterday’s news, there was a short-term recovery for BTC followed by a decline.

进一步的分析显示，大量流动性的价格为93,700美元和98,800美元。昨天的消息后，BTC随后恢复了短期恢复。

This initial drop could aim for the $93,700 level to absorb this “liquid liquidity,” where buy orders are waiting. If BTC does not drop to $93.7K, it might signal strong underlying support or bullish sentiment, where buyers step in at higher levels, preventing a deeper fall. This scenario could lead to a quicker recovery or even a price surge.

最初的下降可能目标是$ 93,700的水平来吸收这种“流动性”，即购买订单正在等待。如果BTC不降至93.7万美元，它可能会标志着强烈的潜在支持或看涨情绪，在这种情况下，买家越来越高，以防止更深的跌倒。这种情况可能会导致更快的恢复甚至价格上涨。

Also, the Trader Sentiment Gap on the BTC showed a notable shrinkage to a lower level, especially when filtered at 0.5, which indicates a minimal sentiment gap between top traders and retail traders.

此外，BTC上的交易者情感差距显示出较低的水平，尤其是在0.5处过滤时，这表明顶级交易者和零售商人之间的情感差距很小。

Historically, such a contraction often precedes a significant price movement. On February 12, following a gap reduction, Bitcoin's price sharply dropped from $96,650 to a low of $94,000 before rebounding.

从历史上看，这种收缩通常在价格转移之前。 2月12日，随着差距的差距，比特币的价格从96,650美元急剧下降到篮板前的低点94,000美元。

This pattern suggests that a narrow sentiment gap may lead to initial price declines, followed by a recovery, reflecting shifts in trader behavior and market dynamics. This further supports the anticipated drop as per the deleveraging signal.

这种模式表明，狭窄的情感差距可能导致初始价格下降，然后恢复，反映了交易者行为和市场动态的转变。这进一步支持了根据去杠杆化信号的预期下降。

Given the current low sentiment gap, BTC might see a similar short-term volatility with potential downside followed by an upward correction.

鉴于当前的低情感差距，BTC可能会看到类似的短期波动率，潜在的下跌，然后进行向上校正。

Why accumulation around $100K is crucial for BTC

为什么累积$ 10万美元对于BTC至关重要

However, a significant trend where Short-Term Holders (STHs) now possess 4 million Bitcoin has emerged. This represents 46% of the 2017 peak and 86% of the 2021 peak, having accumulated 1.6 million BTC since September.

但是，短期持有人（STH）现在拥有400万比特币的重要趋势。这占2017年峰值的46％，占2021年峰值的86％，自9月以来累积了160万BTC。

The increasing number of Short-Term Holders (STHs) contrasts with the declining distribution from Long-Term Holders (LTHs) as seen in their decreasing share of the total BTC supply.

越来越多的短期持有人（STH）与长期持有人（LTH）的分布下降形成对比，如其在BTC总供应量的份额下降所示。

This shows BTC continues to accumulate around the $90K – $100K price range. This consolidation could suggest seller exhaustion, providing a stable base for a potential continuation of the rally.

这表明BTC继续累积在$ 90K - $ 10万美元的价格范围内。这种合并可能表明卖方疲惫，为拉力赛的潜在延续提供了稳定的基础。

As BTC stabilizes, the market could gain confidence, reducing the likelihood of sudden sell-offs. This would set the stage for a sustained uptrend after the deleveraging is over.

随着BTC的稳定，市场可能会获得信心，从而降低了突然抛售的可能性。这将为去杠杆化结束后持续上升趋势奠定基础。