比特幣（BTC）信號全務浪潮，累積左右$ 10萬美元至關重要

比特幣[BTC]目前處於去槓桿化過程中，正如17個主要交易所的90天匯總開放利息三角洲所表明的那樣。

output: As Bitcoin [BTC] continues to navigate the market, several key indicators and trends are unfolding, impacting the price movements and providing insights into the broader market dynamics.

輸出：隨著比特幣[BTC]繼續導航市場，幾個關鍵指標和趨勢正在發展，影響價格變動並提供對更廣泛的市場動態的見解。

According to the 90-day Aggregated Open Interest Delta, major exchanges are indicating a strong deleveraging trend. This usually signals an upcoming price drop or extended sideways movement in response to traders closing or liquidating their positions.

根據90天的開放利息三角洲，主要交易所表明，去槓桿化的趨勢很強。這通常標誌著即將到來的價格下跌或延長側向運動，以響應交易者關閉或清算其頭寸。

This trend is particularly evident in the Open Interest to Market Cap ratio, which has risen sharply since early 2024. This indicates a higher market risk for Bitcoin compared to the more balanced conditions during the 2021 Bull Run.

自2024年初以來，與市值的開放興趣與市值的興趣急劇上升。這表明比特幣的市場風險更高，與2021年公牛運行期間更加平衡的情況相比，比特幣的市場風險更高。

Recent activities show significant deleveraging, signaling a BTC wave of liquidations and the closure of institutional positions — akin to a liquidity reset. This higher ratio could elevate the risk of further price drops, impacting those in long positions.

最近的活動顯示出明顯的去槓桿化，信號是BTC的清算浪潮和機構位置的關閉，類似於流動性重置。這個較高的比率可能會提高價格下降的風險，從而影響那些處於長位置的風險。

Assessing liquidity zones and Trader Sentiment Gap

評估流動性區和交易者情緒差距

Further analysis reveals significant liquidity is pooled at $93,700 and $98,800. Following yesterday’s news, there was a short-term recovery for BTC followed by a decline.

進一步的分析顯示，大量流動性的價格為93,700美元和98,800美元。昨天的消息後，BTC隨後恢復了短期恢復。

This initial drop could aim for the $93,700 level to absorb this “liquid liquidity,” where buy orders are waiting. If BTC does not drop to $93.7K, it might signal strong underlying support or bullish sentiment, where buyers step in at higher levels, preventing a deeper fall. This scenario could lead to a quicker recovery or even a price surge.

最初的下降可能目標是$ 93,700的水平來吸收這種“流動性”，即購買訂單正在等待。如果BTC不降至93.7萬美元，它可能會標誌著強烈的潛在支持或看漲情緒，在這種情況下，買家越來越高，以防止更深的跌倒。這種情況可能會導致更快的恢復甚至價格上漲。

Also, the Trader Sentiment Gap on the BTC showed a notable shrinkage to a lower level, especially when filtered at 0.5, which indicates a minimal sentiment gap between top traders and retail traders.

此外，BTC上的交易者情感差距顯示出較低的水平，尤其是在0.5處過濾時，這表明頂級交易者和零售商人之間的情感差距很小。

Historically, such a contraction often precedes a significant price movement. On February 12, following a gap reduction, Bitcoin's price sharply dropped from $96,650 to a low of $94,000 before rebounding.

從歷史上看，這種收縮通常在價格轉移之前。 2月12日，隨著差距的差距，比特幣的價格從96,650美元急劇下降到籃板前的低點94,000美元。

This pattern suggests that a narrow sentiment gap may lead to initial price declines, followed by a recovery, reflecting shifts in trader behavior and market dynamics. This further supports the anticipated drop as per the deleveraging signal.

這種模式表明，狹窄的情感差距可能導致初始價格下降，然後恢復，反映了交易者行為和市場動態的轉變。這進一步支持了根據去槓桿化信號的預期下降。

Given the current low sentiment gap, BTC might see a similar short-term volatility with potential downside followed by an upward correction.

鑑於當前的低情感差距，BTC可能會看到類似的短期波動率，潛在的下跌，然後進行向上校正。

Why accumulation around $100K is crucial for BTC

為什麼累積$ 10萬美元對於BTC至關重要

However, a significant trend where Short-Term Holders (STHs) now possess 4 million Bitcoin has emerged. This represents 46% of the 2017 peak and 86% of the 2021 peak, having accumulated 1.6 million BTC since September.

但是，短期持有人（STH）現在擁有400萬比特幣的重要趨勢。這佔2017年峰值的46％，佔2021年峰值的86％，自9月以來累積了160萬BTC。

The increasing number of Short-Term Holders (STHs) contrasts with the declining distribution from Long-Term Holders (LTHs) as seen in their decreasing share of the total BTC supply.

越來越多的短期持有人（STH）與長期持有人（LTH）的分佈下降形成對比，如其在BTC總供應量的份額下降所示。

This shows BTC continues to accumulate around the $90K – $100K price range. This consolidation could suggest seller exhaustion, providing a stable base for a potential continuation of the rally.

這表明BTC繼續累積在$ 90K - $ 10萬美元的價格範圍內。這種合併可能表明賣方疲憊，為拉力賽的潛在延續提供了穩定的基礎。

As BTC stabilizes, the market could gain confidence, reducing the likelihood of sudden sell-offs. This would set the stage for a sustained uptrend after the deleveraging is over.

隨著BTC的穩定，市場可能會獲得信心，從而降低了突然拋售的可能性。這將為去槓桿化結束後持續上升趨勢奠定基礎。