比特币 (BTC) 短期波动反映 2023 年 3 月，表明市场可能正在为下一次反弹做准备

一项广受关注的比特币 (BTC) 指标表明加密货币交易所的波动性正接近今年的最低点，类似于 2023 年比特币反弹之前的情况。

A widely watched indicator that signals volatility on cryptocurrency exchanges is nearing its lowest point of the year, similar to what was seen before Bitcoin rallied in 2023.

一项广受关注的表明加密货币交易所波动性的指标正接近今年的最低点，类似于 2023 年比特币反弹之前的情况。

BTC

比特币

$63,603.48

$63,603.48

“The indicator levels are currently also low, which might be signaling the market is preparing for the next rally,” CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler wrote in a Sept. 30 analysis.

CryptoQuant 撰稿人 Axel Adler 在 9 月 30 日的分析中写道：“目前指标水平也很低，这可能表明市场正在为下一次反弹做准备。”

Bitcoin short-term exchange flow multiples vs. price. Source: CryptoQuant

比特币短期交易流量倍数与价格。来源：CryptoQuant

Adler noted that it’s “interesting” how Bitcoin’s low exchange flow multiple values were “seen before the rally in 2023.” In April 2023, BTC saw a 46% rise over the previous 30 days, reaching $30,312.

阿德勒指出，“有趣的是”比特币的低交易流量倍数“在 2023 年反弹之前就被看到了”。 2023 年 4 月，BTC 过去 30 天上涨 46%，达到 30,312 美元。

Bitcoin price volatility is decreasing

比特币价格波动性正在减少

He added that Bitcoin’s short-term inflows and outflows — those held for under 30 days — are significantly lower than long-term flows, signaling “decreased volatility” in Bitcoin exchange flows. This could also suggest that Bitcoin traders are holding, expecting to benefit from a potential price increase soon.

他补充说，比特币的短期流入和流出（持有时间不超过 30 天）明显低于长期流量，这表明比特币交易流量的“波动性降低”。这也可能表明比特币交易者正在持有比特币，预计很快就会从潜在的价格上涨中受益。

Bitcoin is down 3.22% over the past 24 hours. Source: TradingView

比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌了 3.22%。来源：TradingView

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant contributor Julio Moreno noted in a Sept. 30 X post that there are “increasing short positions behind today’s decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.”

与此同时，CryptoQuant 撰稿人 Julio Moreno 在 9 月 30 日的一篇文章中指出，“今天比特币和以太坊价格下跌背后的空头头寸不断增加”。

“Open Interest increased as the price dropped,” Moreno wrote.

“未平仓合约随着价格下跌而增加，”莫雷诺写道。

Bitcoin OI remains elevated, sparking concerns

比特币 OI 仍处于高位，引发担忧

Moreover, crypto market analyst Maartuun opined, “Bitcoin is in that funny spot where the price is down, but open interest isn't.”

此外，加密货币市场分析师 Maartuun 认为，“比特币正处于价格下跌的有趣时刻，但未平仓合约却没有。”

“This setup warrants further fireworks,” Maartuun added.

“这种设置值得进一步的烟火，”Maartuun 补充道。

According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin futures open interest stood at $35.15 billion at the time of writing.

根据 CoinGlass 数据，截至撰写本文时，比特币期货未平仓合约为 351.5 亿美元。

Related: New all-time high in ‘Uptober?’ 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week

相关：“Uptober”创下历史新高？本周关于比特币需要了解的 5 件事

Cointelegraph recently reported an analyst’s view that there is uncertainty over the chances of Bitcoin reaching six figures by year-end. However, returning to its current all-time high remains within reach.

Cointelegraph 最近报道了一位分析师的观点，即比特币到年底达到六位数的可能性存在不确定性。然而，回到目前的历史高点仍然是可以实现的。

“The window to get to $100k by the end of the quarter looks very small to me. You would need everything to go right from this point on and you simply can’t be sure that is going to happen,” Swyftx lead crypto analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph.

“在我看来，到本季度末达到 10 万美元的窗口很小。 Swyftx 首席加密分析师 Pav Hundal 告诉 Cointelegraph，从现在开始，一切都需要顺利进行，但你根本无法确定这是否会发生。

On Sept. 30, the price of BTC took a 3.22% hit over the past 24 hours, trading at $63,531, based on TradingView data.

根据 TradingView 的数据，9 月 30 日，BTC 价格在过去 24 小时内下跌了 3.22%，交易价格为 63,531 美元。

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move carries risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。每一项投资和交易行为都存在风险，读者在做出决定时应自行研究。