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链上数据显示,比特币短期持有人最近参加了当前周期中最大的损失事件。
In its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed how the situation of the Bitcoin short-term holders has changed following the market downturn.
On-Chain Analytics公司GlassNode在其最新的每周报告中讨论了比特币短期持有人的状况如何随着市场低迷而改变。
The “short-term holders” (STHs) are the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This cohort includes the new entrants into the market, who don’t tend to be too resolute. As such, it’s not uncommon to see the group participating in a panic selloff, whenever some kind of volatility emerges in the market.
“短期持有人”(STHS)是BTC投资者,他们在过去155天内购买了硬币。该队列包括进入市场的新进入者,他们往往不会太坚决。因此,每当市场上出现某种波动性时,就会看到该小组参与恐慌抛售并不少见。
The recent price decline has been one such moment. First, here is a chart shared by the analytics firm that shows how the Relative Unrealized Loss of the STHs has developed during this event:
最近的价格下跌一直是这样的时刻。首先,这是分析公司共享的图表,该图表显示了在此事件中STH的相对未实现的损失是如何发展的:
The “Relative Unrealized Loss” measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of loss that the STHs are holding onto. The ‘relative’ in the indicator’s name refers to the fact that this loss has been normalized according to the market cap.
顾名思义,“相对未实现的损失”措施是STH所持有的总损失量。指标名称中的“亲戚”是指以下事实:根据市值,该损失已被归一化。
As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin STH Relative Unrealized Loss has observed a significant increase recently and has reached the upper threshold for losses recorded in bull markets historically (the red line).
如图所示,比特币STH相对未实现的损失最近观察到了显着的增长,并且已经达到了历史上牛市记录的损失的上限(红线)。
Glassnode notes, though, “despite these elevated paper losses, the financial damage carried by new investors remains largely in line with the yen-carry-trade unwind on 5-Aug-2024.”
GlassNode指出,“尽管纸质损失升高,但新投资者造成的财务损失仍与2024年8月5日的日元携带者贸易保持一致。”
As long as an investor keeps sitting on their loss, it remains unrealized, but once they decide to make a transaction involving the underwater tokens, the loss is said to be ‘realized.’
只要投资者继续遭受损失,它仍然无法实现,但是一旦他们决定进行涉及水下代币的交易,据说损失将被“实现”。
Given that a portion of the group has been pushed underwater in the latest crash, it would be expected that the fickle-minded members of it would have capitulated at some loss. Here is another chart, this time for the loss that the STHs have actually realized:
鉴于该小组的一部分在最新的坠机事故中被推到水下,因此预计有善意的成员会在某种程度上屈服。这是另一个图表,这次是STH真正意识到的损失:
As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day sum of the Bitcoin STH Realized Loss has reached the $7 billion mark recently, which is the highest value witnessed in the current cycle so far.
如上图所示,比特币STH实现的30天总和最近达到了70亿美元的大关,这是迄今为止当前周期中最高的价值。
It’s also apparent from the chart, however, that while these losses are sizeable on their own, the same isn’t the case when stacked against the major capitulation events of the previous cycle.
但是,从图表也可以明显看出,尽管这些损失本身很大,但与上一个周期的重大投票事件堆叠在一起时,情况并非如此。
In the loss-taking event that followed the May 2021 selloff, the indicator’s value reached $19.8 billion. Similarly, it reached a high of $20.7 billion during the 2022 bear market. Both of these are clearly much larger in scale than the latest capitulation.
在2021年5月抛售之后的损失事件中,指标的价值达到了198亿美元。同样,在2022年熊市中,它达到了207亿美元。这两个显然都比最新的投降大得多。
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