比特币（BTC）一直在过山车上，最近在70,000美元中达到了四个月的低点，引发了投资者的担忧。

比特币（BTC）一直在过山车上，最近在76,606美元中达到了四个月的低点，引发了投资者的担忧。但是，加密企业家和Bitmex的前首席执行官亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）对比特币的长期轨迹保持乐观。根据海耶斯的说法，比特币的最低水平约为70,000美元，标志着其最新历史最高高（ATH）的36％更正为108,786美元。他向投资者保证，这种更正在牛市中是正常的。

Crypto entrepreneur and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term trajectory despite the recent price downturn and concerns among investors.

Crypto企业家和前Bitmex首席执行官Arthur Hayes仍然对比特币的长期轨迹保持乐观，尽管最近的价格下跌和投资者的担忧。

According to Hayes, Bitcoin is likely to bottom out around $70,000, marking a 36% correction from its latest all-time high (ATH) of $108,786. Such corrections are normal in bull markets, and Bitcoin has typically seen even larger pullbacks in previous bull cycles. For instance, Bitcoin dropped by 73% from its 2017 ATH to reach a low of $3,000 in early 2019.

根据海耶斯的说法，比特币的最低水平约为70,000美元，标志着其最新历史最高高（ATH）的36％更正为108,786美元。这种校正在牛市中是正常的，并且比特币在以前的牛周期中通常会看到更大的回调。例如，比特币从2017年ATH下降了73％，在2019年初的低点达到3,000美元。

"We are in a bull market, and bull markets correct. 36% off of an ATH is not a lot in the grand scheme of things. In previous bull markets, Bitcoin has seen much larger pullbacks before continuing to new highs. For example, Bitcoin dropped by 73% from its 2017 ATH to reach a low of $3,000 in early 2019," Hayes noted.

“我们处于牛市，公牛市场正确。在宏伟计划中，ATH的折扣并不多。在先前的牛市，比特币在继续新的高点之前看到了更大的回调。

Bitcoin's latest decline has been fueled by economic uncertainty and recession fears. The S&P 500 (SPX) has dropped nearly 8% in the past month, reflecting a broader market downturn. Additionally, Polymarket, a blockchain-based predictions platform, estimates a 39% chance of a US recession in 2025, a sharp increase from 23% in late February.

比特币的最新下降是由于经济不确定性和衰退的恐惧所推动的。在过去的一个月中，标准普尔500指数（SPX）下降了近8％，反映了更广泛的市场低迷。此外，Polymarket是一个基于区块链的预测平台，估计2025年美国衰退的机会有39％，比2月下旬的23％急剧增加。

However, Hayes urges crypto investors to remain patient, arguing that $70,000 will serve as a strong support level.

但是，海耶斯敦促加密投资者保持耐心，认为70,000美元将是强大的支持水平。

"I think crypto traders can deploy more capital after we see what the Fed does. If they introduce QE, then we could see BTC do another parabolic run. My prediction is that Bitcoin will likely find support around $70,000. This price level aligns well with historical trends in bull markets, where we typically see significant pullbacks before the uptrend continues."

“我认为加密货币交易者可以在看到美联储的作用后可以部署更多的资本。如果他们引入量化宽松，那么我们可以看到BTC进行了另一种抛物线范围。我的预测是，比特币可能会在70万美元左右的价格上找到支持。这个价格水平与牛市的历史趋势息息相关，在我们通常在上升之前的牛市中，我们通常会在牛市的历史趋势上找到。”

Those who missed out on Bitcoin's parabolic move in the first half of 2024 could have another chance to participate if Bitcoin indeed bounces off the $70,000 support.

那些在2024年上半年错过了比特币抛物线的动作的人，如果比特币确实反弹了70,000美元的支持，则可能会有另一个机会参加。

"If we do see Bitcoin stabilize around $70,000 and hold that level, then I think we could see a decent altcoin season. But if Bitcoin breaks down further and touches the $50,000 region, then we might see another leg lower in altcoins."

“如果我们确实看到比特币稳定在70,000美元左右并保持该水平，那么我认为我们可以看到一个体面的山寨币季节。但是，如果比特币进一步分解并触及了50,000美元的地区，那么我们可能会看到Altcoins的另一支腿较低。”

As Bitcoin approaches the critical $70,000 support, investors will be closely watching to see if this level holds or if Bitcoin experiences further downside pressure.

随着比特币接近70,000美元的关键支持，投资者将密切关注，以查看此水平是否达到或是否会进一步体验下行压力。