比特幣（BTC）一直在過山車上，最近在70,000美元中達到了四個月的低點，引發了投資者的擔憂。

比特幣（BTC）一直在過山車上，最近在76,606美元中達到了四個月的低點，引發了投資者的擔憂。但是，加密企業家和Bitmex的前首席執行官亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）對比特幣的長期軌跡保持樂觀。根據海耶斯的說法，比特幣的最低水平約為70,000美元，標誌著其最新歷史最高高（ATH）的36％更正為108,786美元。他向投資者保證，這種更正在牛市中是正常的。

Crypto entrepreneur and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term trajectory despite the recent price downturn and concerns among investors.

Crypto企業家和前Bitmex首席執行官Arthur Hayes仍然對比特幣的長期軌跡保持樂觀，儘管最近的價格下跌和投資者的擔憂。

According to Hayes, Bitcoin is likely to bottom out around $70,000, marking a 36% correction from its latest all-time high (ATH) of $108,786. Such corrections are normal in bull markets, and Bitcoin has typically seen even larger pullbacks in previous bull cycles. For instance, Bitcoin dropped by 73% from its 2017 ATH to reach a low of $3,000 in early 2019.

根據海耶斯的說法，比特幣的最低水平約為70,000美元，標誌著其最新歷史最高高（ATH）的36％更正為108,786美元。這種校正在牛市中是正常的，並且比特幣在以前的牛週期中通常會看到更大的回調。例如，比特幣從2017年ATH下降了73％，在2019年初的低點達到3,000美元。

"We are in a bull market, and bull markets correct. 36% off of an ATH is not a lot in the grand scheme of things. In previous bull markets, Bitcoin has seen much larger pullbacks before continuing to new highs. For example, Bitcoin dropped by 73% from its 2017 ATH to reach a low of $3,000 in early 2019," Hayes noted.

“我們處於牛市，公牛市場正確。在宏偉計劃中，ATH的折扣並不多。在先前的牛市，比特幣在繼續新的高點之前看到了更大的回調。

Bitcoin's latest decline has been fueled by economic uncertainty and recession fears. The S&P 500 (SPX) has dropped nearly 8% in the past month, reflecting a broader market downturn. Additionally, Polymarket, a blockchain-based predictions platform, estimates a 39% chance of a US recession in 2025, a sharp increase from 23% in late February.

比特幣的最新下降是由於經濟不確定性和衰退的恐懼所推動的。在過去的一個月中，標準普爾500指數（SPX）下降了近8％，反映了更廣泛的市場低迷。此外，Polymarket是一個基於區塊鏈的預測平台，估計2025年美國衰退的機會有39％，比2月下旬的23％急劇增加。

However, Hayes urges crypto investors to remain patient, arguing that $70,000 will serve as a strong support level.

但是，海耶斯敦促加密投資者保持耐心，認為70,000美元將是強大的支持水平。

"I think crypto traders can deploy more capital after we see what the Fed does. If they introduce QE, then we could see BTC do another parabolic run. My prediction is that Bitcoin will likely find support around $70,000. This price level aligns well with historical trends in bull markets, where we typically see significant pullbacks before the uptrend continues."

“我認為加密貨幣交易者可以在看到美聯儲的作用後可以部署更多的資本。如果他們引入量化寬鬆，那麼我們可以看到BTC進行了另一種拋物線範圍。我的預測是，比特幣可能會在70萬美元左右的價格上找到支持。這個價格水平與牛市的歷史趨勢息息相關，在我們通常在上升之前的牛市中，我們通常會在牛市的歷史趨勢上找到。”

Those who missed out on Bitcoin's parabolic move in the first half of 2024 could have another chance to participate if Bitcoin indeed bounces off the $70,000 support.

那些在2024年上半年錯過了比特幣拋物線的動作的人，如果比特幣確實反彈了70,000美元的支持，則可能會有另一個機會參加。

"If we do see Bitcoin stabilize around $70,000 and hold that level, then I think we could see a decent altcoin season. But if Bitcoin breaks down further and touches the $50,000 region, then we might see another leg lower in altcoins."

“如果我們確實看到比特幣穩定在70,000美元左右並保持該水平，那麼我認為我們可以看到一個體面的山寨幣季節。但是，如果比特幣進一步分解並觸及了50,000美元的地區，那麼我們可能會看到Altcoins的另一支腿較低。”

As Bitcoin approaches the critical $70,000 support, investors will be closely watching to see if this level holds or if Bitcoin experiences further downside pressure.

隨著比特幣接近70,000美元的關鍵支持，投資者將密切關注，以查看此水平是否達到或是否會進一步體驗下行壓力。