比特币 (BTC) 在最近的市场震荡中跌至 98,000 美元后重新测试 100,000 美元的支撑区域

一些市场观察人士表示，旗舰加密货币的近期表现与其 2023 年 12 月的轨迹相似，这表明 BTC 可能很快就会出现大规模突破。

Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to reclaim the $100,000 support zone after dropping to $98,000 during the recent market sell-off. Some market observers believe that the flagship cryptocurrency’s recent price action mirrors its December 2023 trajectory, suggesting that BTC might be poised for a breakout.

比特币 (BTC) 在最近的市场抛售中跌至 98,000 美元后，试图夺回 100,000 美元的支撑区域。一些市场观察人士认为，旗舰加密货币最近的价格走势反映了其 2023 年 12 月的轨迹，表明 BTC 可能即将突破。

On Wednesday, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market experienced a sell-off following the US Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25-basis-point rate hike and fewer cuts than anticipated in 2025.

周三，在美联储宣布加息 25 个基点且 2025 年降息幅度低于预期后，比特币和更广泛的加密市场经历了抛售。

The flagship cryptocurrency dropped 9.2% from its all-time high (ATH) of $108,135, briefly dipping below the $99,000 support level before recovering. BTC quickly rallied back to $100,000, rising 2% on Thursday morning to the $102,000 resistance.

这一旗舰加密货币从历史高点 (ATH) 108,135 美元下跌 9.2%，短暂跌破 99,000 美元支撑位，然后回升。 BTC 迅速反弹至 100,000 美元，周四上午上涨 2%，至 102,000 美元阻力位。

After the sell-off, crypto trader Follis suggested that this month’s price action mirrors BTC’s 2023 trajectory. The trader noted that Bitcoin is “repeating the December playbook from last year,” suggesting that a pump to a new high is coming soon.

在抛售之后，加密货币交易员 Follis 表示，本月的价格走势反映了 BTC 2023 年的轨迹。该交易员指出，比特币正在“重复去年 12 月的剧本”，这表明比特币即将创下新高。

According to the chart, BTC consolidated within the $40,000-$45,000 price range before breaking out in January 2024. The breakout was followed by a 20% correction to the previous consolidation zone, dipping briefly below this range.

根据该图表，BTC 在 2024 年 1 月突破之前在 40,000 美元至 45,000 美元的价格区间内盘整。突破之后，对之前的盘整区域进行了 20% 的修正，短暂跌破该区间。

However, Bitcoin recovered the breakout levels in the following weeks and surged another 47% to its March ATH of $73,000. If the largest cryptocurrency by market cap continues to follow this “playbook,” its price could correct below $88,000 by year-end before resuming its bullish run to new highs.

然而，比特币在接下来的几周内恢复了突破水平，并飙升了 47％，达到 3 月份的最高点 73,000 美元。如果市值最大的加密货币继续遵循这一“剧本”，其价格可能会在年底前回调至 88,000 美元以下，然后恢复看涨走势至新高。

In a similar vein, Daan Crypto Trades noted that BTC’s performance in Q4 mirrors its Q4 2023 price action. The analyst suggested that Bitcoin will likely continue the “slow hoppy grind up before the actual breakout” occurs.

同样，Daan Crypto Trades 指出，BTC 在第四季度的表现反映了 2023 年第四季度的价格走势。这位分析师表示，比特币可能会继续“在实际突破之前缓慢上涨”。

He advised traders to “zoom out” as the short-term chart “doesn’t look pretty,” but BTC’s price is still “slowly trending up.”

他建议交易者“缩小视野”，因为短期图表“看起来不太漂亮”，但比特币的价格仍然“缓慢上涨”。

Analyst Warns Of BTC’s Daily Close

分析师警告比特币每日收盘

Other analysts highlighted the importance of the coming hours for BTC’s short-term performance. Rekt Capital noted that holding the $100,000 support is crucial, as failure to maintain this level could send Bitcoin below the previous key resistance of $98,000.

其他分析师强调了未来几个小时对比特币短期表现的重要性。 Rekt Capital 指出，守住 100,000 美元的支撑位至关重要，因为未能维持这一水平可能会使比特币跌破之前的关键阻力位 98,000 美元。

Furthermore, a daily close above the $101,000 mark is necessary to prevent this range from turning into resistance again. The analyst added that “doing so could kickstart a chain of events where BTC starts to lose support level by level.”

此外，日收盘价必须高于 101,000 美元大关，才能防止该区间再次成为阻力位。这位分析师补充说，“这样做可能会引发一系列事件，导致比特币开始逐级失去支撑。”

He noted that a close above this level would invalidate the short-term bearish outlook. Previously, the analyst explained that Bitcoin is in the first “Price Discovery Correction,” which usually occurs between the 6th and 8th week of BTC’s post-halving “Parabolic Upside Phase”:

他指出，收盘价高于该水平将使短期看跌前景失效。此前，分析师解释说，比特币正处于第一次“价格发现修正”，通常发生在比特币减半后“抛物线上涨阶段”的第 6 周至第 8 周之间：

As a Result, over the next 3 weeks or so, I am going to be increasingly cautious about retest attempts, and given BTC’s history at this point in the cycle, I wouldn’t be surprised to see key levels get invalidated.

因此，在接下来的 3 周左右的时间里，我将对重新测试尝试变得越来越谨慎，并且考虑到 BTC 在周期中此时的历史，看到关键水平失效我不会感到惊讶。

However, he added that the “Second Price Discovery Uptrend” follows the الكبير correction.

不过，他补充说，“第二次价格发现上升趋势”是在价格调整之后出现的。

Bitcoin has slipped below the $100,000 support level, showing a 5.1% 24-hour decrease to the $98,900 mark at the time of writing.

截至撰写本文时，比特币已跌破 100,000 美元支撑位，24 小时内下跌 5.1%，至 98,900 美元大关。