比特幣 (BTC) 在最近的市場震盪中跌至 98,000 美元後重新測試 100,000 美元的支撐區域

一些市場觀察人士表示，旗艦加密貨幣的近期表現與其 2023 年 12 月的軌跡相似，這表明 BTC 可能很快就會出現大規模突破。

Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to reclaim the $100,000 support zone after dropping to $98,000 during the recent market sell-off. Some market observers believe that the flagship cryptocurrency’s recent price action mirrors its December 2023 trajectory, suggesting that BTC might be poised for a breakout.

比特幣 (BTC) 在最近的市場拋售中跌至 98,000 美元後，試圖奪回 100,000 美元的支撐區域。一些市場觀察家認為，旗艦加密貨幣最近的價格走勢反映了其 2023 年 12 月的軌跡，表明 BTC 可能即將突破。

On Wednesday, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market experienced a sell-off following the US Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25-basis-point rate hike and fewer cuts than anticipated in 2025.

週三，在聯準會宣布升息 25 個基點且 2025 年降息幅度低於預期後，比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場經歷了拋售。

The flagship cryptocurrency dropped 9.2% from its all-time high (ATH) of $108,135, briefly dipping below the $99,000 support level before recovering. BTC quickly rallied back to $100,000, rising 2% on Thursday morning to the $102,000 resistance.

這款旗艦加密貨幣從歷史高點 (ATH) 108,135 美元下跌 9.2%，短暫跌破 99,000 美元支撐位，然後回升。 BTC 迅速反彈至 10 萬美元，週四上午上漲 2%，至 10.2 萬美元阻力位。

After the sell-off, crypto trader Follis suggested that this month’s price action mirrors BTC’s 2023 trajectory. The trader noted that Bitcoin is “repeating the December playbook from last year,” suggesting that a pump to a new high is coming soon.

在拋售之後，加密貨幣交易員 Follis 表示，本月的物價走勢反映了 BTC 2023 年的軌跡。該交易員指出，比特幣正在“重複去年 12 月的劇本”，這表明比特幣即將創下新高。

According to the chart, BTC consolidated within the $40,000-$45,000 price range before breaking out in January 2024. The breakout was followed by a 20% correction to the previous consolidation zone, dipping briefly below this range.

根據圖表，BTC 在 2024 年 1 月突破之前在 40,000 美元至 45,000 美元的價格區間內盤整。

However, Bitcoin recovered the breakout levels in the following weeks and surged another 47% to its March ATH of $73,000. If the largest cryptocurrency by market cap continues to follow this “playbook,” its price could correct below $88,000 by year-end before resuming its bullish run to new highs.

然而，比特幣在接下來的幾週內恢復了突破水平，並再次飆升 47％，達到 3 月的最高點 73,000 美元。如果市值最大的加密貨幣繼續遵循這一“劇本”，其價格可能會在年底前回調至 88,000 美元以下，然後恢復看漲走勢至新高。

In a similar vein, Daan Crypto Trades noted that BTC’s performance in Q4 mirrors its Q4 2023 price action. The analyst suggested that Bitcoin will likely continue the “slow hoppy grind up before the actual breakout” occurs.

同樣，Daan Crypto Trades 指出，BTC 在第四季的表現反映了 2023 年第四季的價格走勢。這位分析師表示，比特幣可能會繼續「在實際突破之前緩慢上漲」。

He advised traders to “zoom out” as the short-term chart “doesn’t look pretty,” but BTC’s price is still “slowly trending up.”

他建議交易者“縮小視野”，因為短期圖表“看起來不太漂亮”，但比特幣的價格仍然“緩慢上漲”。

Analyst Warns Of BTC’s Daily Close

分析師警告比特幣每日收盤

Other analysts highlighted the importance of the coming hours for BTC’s short-term performance. Rekt Capital noted that holding the $100,000 support is crucial, as failure to maintain this level could send Bitcoin below the previous key resistance of $98,000.

其他分析師強調了未來幾個小時對比特幣短期表現的重要性。 Rekt Capital 指出，守住 10 萬美元的支撐位至關重要，因為未能維持這一水平可能會使比特幣跌破之前​​的關鍵阻力位 98,000 美元。

Furthermore, a daily close above the $101,000 mark is necessary to prevent this range from turning into resistance again. The analyst added that “doing so could kickstart a chain of events where BTC starts to lose support level by level.”

此外，日收盤價必須高於 101,000 美元大關，才能防止該區間再次成為阻力位。這位分析師補充說，“這樣做可能會引發一系列事件，導致比特幣開始逐級失去支撐。”

He noted that a close above this level would invalidate the short-term bearish outlook. Previously, the analyst explained that Bitcoin is in the first “Price Discovery Correction,” which usually occurs between the 6th and 8th week of BTC’s post-halving “Parabolic Upside Phase”:

他指出，收盤價高於該水準將使短期看跌前景失效。此前，分析師解釋說，比特幣正處於第一次“價格發現修正”，通常發生在比特幣減半後“拋物線上漲階段”的第 6 周至第 8 週之間：

As a Result, over the next 3 weeks or so, I am going to be increasingly cautious about retest attempts, and given BTC’s history at this point in the cycle, I wouldn’t be surprised to see key levels get invalidated.

因此，在接下來的 3 週左右的時間裡，我將對重新測試嘗試變得越來越謹慎，並且考慮到 BTC 在周期中此時的歷史，看到關鍵水平失效我不會感到驚訝。

However, he added that the “Second Price Discovery Uptrend” follows the الكبير correction.

不過，他補充說，「第二次價格發現上升趨勢」是在價格調整後出現的。

Bitcoin has slipped below the $100,000 support level, showing a 5.1% 24-hour decrease to the $98,900 mark at the time of writing.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣已跌破 10 萬美元支撐位，24 小時內下跌 5.1%，至 98,900 美元大關。