比特币（BTC）类似于螺旋弹簧，可能准备向任一方向释放能量

希望利用价格大幅波动的波动性交易者可能很快就会找到机会。一项关键指标表明，比特币 (BTC) 目前已突破 100 美元

Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a volatility explosion, an indicator suggests.

一项指标表明，比特币（BTC）可能会出现波动性爆炸。

The indicator is the rolling 60-day price range, which shows the variation in maximum and minimum price ticks in percentage terms. A tighter range usually implies stable market conditions characterized by range play and demand-supply equilibrium.

该指标是 60 天的滚动价格范围，以百分比形式显示最大和最小价格变动的变化。较窄的区间通常意味着稳定的市场状况，其特征是区间波动和供需平衡。

However, Glassnode’s analysis shows that bitcoin’s 60-day range is now tighter than the current trading range.

然而，Glassnode 的分析显示，比特币的 60 天区间现在比当前的交易区间更窄。

“Historically, such instances have presaged volatility explosions. All of these instances have occurred prior to a significant burst of volatility, with the majority being in early bull markets or prior to late-stage capitulations in bear cycles,” Glassnode said in its weekly analysis report.

“从历史上看，此类情况预示着波动性的爆发。所有这些情况都发生在大幅波动之前，其中大多数发生在牛市早期或熊市周期后期投降之前，”Glassnode 在其每周分析报告中表示。

Volatility is Mean-Reverting

波动性是均值回归

Volatility is mean-reverting, that is, it tends to oscillate around its lifetime average. Rapid price swings typically follow a low-volatility period and vice versa.

波动性是均值回归的，也就是说，它倾向于围绕其生命周期平均值振荡。价格快速波动通常会伴随着低波动期，反之亦然。

It is also price agnostic. Higher volatility means price fluctuations will become bigger and potentially more unpredictable. It does not say whether prices will surge or slump.

它也与价格无关。更高的波动性意味着价格波动将变得更大并且可能更难以预测。它没有说明价格会上涨还是下跌。

Recent flows, however, have been biased bullish, particularly on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, where traders have been piling into call options. A similar bullish bias is apparent on Deribit and other exchanges.

然而，最近的资金流向偏向看涨，尤其是在芝加哥商品交易所，交易员们纷纷买入看涨期权。 Deribit 和其他交易所也存在类似的看涨偏见。

“BTC futures continue to trend upward, especially on the front end, as the market’s net-long exposure from last week remains solid. Bullish bets currently outpace bearish ones by a ratio of approximately 20:1,” QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast.

“比特币期货继续呈上升趋势，尤其是在前端，因为上周市场的净多头敞口仍然稳固。目前看涨押注与看跌押注的比例约为 20:1，”QCP Capital 在 Telegram 广播中表示。

If the positioning is a guide, it’s safe to say that market participants expect a bullish resolution to BTC’s multiweek consolidation between $90,000 and $110,000.

如果定位是一个指导，那么可以肯定地说，市场参与者预计 BTC 在 90,000 美元至 110,000 美元之间的多周盘整将出现看涨决议。