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以中国为中心的稳定币数据和较低的零售参与度表明经济放缓,而全球范围内的整体兴趣仍然低迷。
Key Takeaways
要点
Bitcoin’s recent rally, fueled by institutional investors, has brought the cryptocurrency close to a new all-time high. However, key indicators suggest that BTC may not be ready for this milestone yet.
在机构投资者的推动下,比特币最近的上涨已使该加密货币接近历史新高。然而,关键指标表明,比特币可能尚未为这一里程碑做好准备。
China-focused stablecoin data and low retail participation could signal a slowdown in Bitcoin’s price surge, while broader global interest remains muted.
以中国为中心的稳定币数据和较低的散户参与度可能预示着比特币价格上涨放缓,而全球范围内的整体兴趣仍然低迷。
Bitcoin’s price hit a seven-month high on Monday, rallying to levels not seen since the cryptocurrency’s record run in April. Surging past the psychological resistance at $60,000, BTC reached a high of $65,888 on the Bitstamp exchange.
比特币价格周一触及七个月高位,反弹至自 4 月份加密货币创纪录运行以来的最高水平。 BTC 在 Bitstamp 交易所飙升至 60,000 美元的心理阻力位,达到 65,888 美元的高位。
This rally follows a period of consolidation for Bitcoin, which began after the cryptocurrency crashed from an all-time high of nearly $69,000 in November. Since then, institutional investors have played a major role in driving up Bitcoin’s price, with instruments like the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (NYSE: BITO) seeing record inflows.
此次反弹是在比特币经历了一段盘整期之后发生的,盘整期是在 11 月份加密货币从近 69,000 美元的历史高点暴跌之后开始的。从那时起,机构投资者在推高比特币价格方面发挥了重要作用,ProShares 比特币策略 ETF(纽约证券交易所股票代码:BITO)等工具的资金流入创历史新高。
But as Bitcoin’s price approaches a new peak, several indicators point to a potential slowdown in its rally. One key factor is the premium at which the China-focused stablecoin market has been trading.
但随着比特币的价格接近新高,一些指标表明其涨势可能会放缓。一个关键因素是以中国为中心的稳定币市场的交易溢价。
Typically, a discount in this market signals bearish sentiment among over-the-counter (OTC) traders, while a premium indicates optimism. Stablecoins have been trading at a discount in China since March 2022, suggesting that OTC traders may be largely bearish.
通常,该市场的折价表明场外交易(OTC)交易者的看跌情绪,而溢价则表明乐观情绪。自 2022 年 3 月以来,稳定币在中国的交易一直处于折扣状态,这表明场外交易者可能在很大程度上看跌。
Another factor is the lack of retail participation in the current Bitcoin rally. A key indicator of market euphoria, retail participation surged during past bull markets, with the Coinbase app ranking as the number one downloaded app in the U.S.
另一个因素是当前比特币涨势中缺乏散户参与。作为市场欣欣向荣的一个关键指标,散户参与度在过去的牛市期间激增,Coinbase 应用程序排名美国下载量第一
However, during the recent rally, retail interest has been low. According to data from Apptopia, the Coinbase app currently ranks 417th in terms of downloads on the iOS App Store, far below its peak positions during previous rallies.
然而,在最近的反弹中,散户兴趣一直较低。根据 Apptopia 的数据,Coinbase 应用程序目前在 iOS App Store 上的下载量排名第 417 位,远低于之前上涨期间的峰值位置。
Moreover, on-chain data shows that short-term holder supply has been declining, indicating that retail investors are not piling into BTC yet. This lower retail activity could suggest that Bitcoin’s rally may still have room to grow before reaching its peak.
此外,链上数据显示,短期持有者供应量一直在下降,这表明散户投资者尚未涌入比特币。零售活动的减少可能表明,比特币的涨势在达到顶峰之前可能仍有增长空间。
Broader global interest in crypto also remains muted, with Google Trends showing that worldwide searches for the term “Bitcoin” are still significantly lower than during the cryptocurrency’s past bull markets.
全球范围内对加密货币的兴趣也仍然低迷,谷歌趋势显示,全球范围内对“比特币”一词的搜索量仍然明显低于加密货币过去牛市期间的水平。
This lack of mainstream attention could indicate that more participation is yet to come, potentially driving up Bitcoin’s price further. However, the absence of broader interest also makes the sustainability of Bitcoin’s rally more uncertain.
缺乏主流关注可能表明更多的参与尚未到来,这可能会进一步推高比特币的价格。然而,缺乏更广泛的兴趣也使得比特币上涨的可持续性更加不确定。
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