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以中國為中心的穩定幣數據和較低的零售參與度表明經濟放緩,而全球範圍內的整體興趣仍然低迷。
Key Takeaways
重點
Bitcoin’s recent rally, fueled by institutional investors, has brought the cryptocurrency close to a new all-time high. However, key indicators suggest that BTC may not be ready for this milestone yet.
在機構投資者的推動下,比特幣最近的上漲已使該加密貨幣接近歷史新高。然而,關鍵指標表明,比特幣可能尚未為這一里程碑做好準備。
China-focused stablecoin data and low retail participation could signal a slowdown in Bitcoin’s price surge, while broader global interest remains muted.
以中國為中心的穩定幣數據和較低的散戶參與度可能預示著比特幣價格上漲放緩,而全球範圍內的整體興趣仍然低迷。
Bitcoin’s price hit a seven-month high on Monday, rallying to levels not seen since the cryptocurrency’s record run in April. Surging past the psychological resistance at $60,000, BTC reached a high of $65,888 on the Bitstamp exchange.
比特幣價格週一觸及七個月高位,反彈至自 4 月加密貨幣創紀錄運行以來的最高水平。 BTC 在 Bitstamp 交易所飆升至 60,000 美元的心理阻力位,達到 65,888 美元的高點。
This rally follows a period of consolidation for Bitcoin, which began after the cryptocurrency crashed from an all-time high of nearly $69,000 in November. Since then, institutional investors have played a major role in driving up Bitcoin’s price, with instruments like the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (NYSE: BITO) seeing record inflows.
這次反彈是在比特幣經歷了一段盤整期之後發生的,盤整期是在 11 月加密貨幣從近 69,000 美元的歷史高點暴跌之後開始的。從那時起,機構投資者在推高比特幣價格方面發揮了重要作用,ProShares 比特幣策略 ETF(NYSE:BITO)等工具的資金流入創歷史新高。
But as Bitcoin’s price approaches a new peak, several indicators point to a potential slowdown in its rally. One key factor is the premium at which the China-focused stablecoin market has been trading.
但隨著比特幣的價格接近新高,一些指標顯示其漲勢可能會放緩。一個關鍵因素是以中國為中心的穩定幣市場的交易溢價。
Typically, a discount in this market signals bearish sentiment among over-the-counter (OTC) traders, while a premium indicates optimism. Stablecoins have been trading at a discount in China since March 2022, suggesting that OTC traders may be largely bearish.
通常,該市場的折價表明場外交易(OTC)交易者的看跌情緒,而溢價則表明樂觀情緒。自 2022 年 3 月以來,穩定幣在中國的交易一直處於折價狀態,這表明場外交易者可能在很大程度上看跌。
Another factor is the lack of retail participation in the current Bitcoin rally. A key indicator of market euphoria, retail participation surged during past bull markets, with the Coinbase app ranking as the number one downloaded app in the U.S.
另一個因素是當前比特幣漲勢缺乏散戶參與。作為市場欣欣向榮的關鍵指標,散戶參與度在過去的多頭期間激增,Coinbase 應用程式排名美國下載量第一
However, during the recent rally, retail interest has been low. According to data from Apptopia, the Coinbase app currently ranks 417th in terms of downloads on the iOS App Store, far below its peak positions during previous rallies.
然而,在最近的反彈中,散戶興趣一直較低。根據 Apptopia 的數據,Coinbase 應用程式目前在 iOS App Store 上的下載量排名第 417 位,遠低於先前上漲期間的峰值位置。
Moreover, on-chain data shows that short-term holder supply has been declining, indicating that retail investors are not piling into BTC yet. This lower retail activity could suggest that Bitcoin’s rally may still have room to grow before reaching its peak.
此外,鏈上數據顯示,短期持有者供應量一直在下降,顯示散戶投資者尚未湧入比特幣。零售活動的減少可能表明,比特幣的漲勢在達到頂峰之前可能仍有成長空間。
Broader global interest in crypto also remains muted, with Google Trends showing that worldwide searches for the term “Bitcoin” are still significantly lower than during the cryptocurrency’s past bull markets.
全球對加密貨幣的興趣也仍然低迷,Google趨勢顯示,全球對「比特幣」一詞的搜尋量仍然明顯低於加密貨幣過去牛市期間的水平。
This lack of mainstream attention could indicate that more participation is yet to come, potentially driving up Bitcoin’s price further. However, the absence of broader interest also makes the sustainability of Bitcoin’s rally more uncertain.
缺乏主流關注可能表明更多的參與尚未到來,這可能會進一步推高比特幣的價格。然而,缺乏更廣泛的興趣也使得比特幣上漲的可持續性更加不確定。
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