比特币（BTC）Rainbow Chart，RSI，200W MA Heatmap，CVDD，2年MA乘数指标表明市场顶部可能不在

在昨天的比特币崩溃之后，市场参与者正在仔细研究市场资本化的主要加密货币是否可以反弹，还是面临另一个下降的前景。

Bitcoin price crashed again on Friday. Following the event, market participants are keeping a close eye on whether the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization will experience a rebound or if it faces the prospect of another decline.

比特币价格在星期五再次崩溃。活动结束后，市场参与者密切关注市场资本化领先的加密货币是否会反弹，还是面临另一个下降的前景。

In a post shared on X today, February 4, on-chain analysis data provider Lookonchain offered insights into five critical indicators that may help traders and investors assess Bitcoin’s current position.

在2月4日在X上分享的一篇文章中，链上分析数据提供商Lookonchain提供了五个关键指标的见解，这些指标可能会帮助交易者和投资者评估比特币的当前位置。

“The price of Bitcoin experienced a major crash yesterday! Will it continue to rise or fall from the top? Let’s use 5 indicators to see if BTC is at its peak now,” Lookonchain writes.

“昨天比特币的价格发生了重大崩溃！它会继续从顶部升起还是跌落？让我们使用5个指标来查看BTC是否现在达到顶峰。” Lookonchain写道。

#1 Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

＃1比特币彩虹图

Described by Lookonchain as “a long-term valuation tool that uses a logarithmic growth curve to forecast the potential future price direction of BTC,” the Rainbow Chart is often employed to gauge whether Bitcoin might be undervalued, overvalued, or approaching a key turning point.

Lookonchain将其描述为“使用对数增长曲线预测BTC潜在价格方向的长期估值工具”，彩虹图通常用于衡量是否可能被低估，高估比特币，或接近关键转折点。

“The NEW Bitcoin Rainbow2023 Chart shows that you can still hold BTC, and BTC will top above $250K this cycle.”

“新的比特币Rainbow2023图表显示，您仍然可以持有BTC，而BTC将在这个周期中高于25万美元。”

While this chart suggests a bullish long-term trajectory, its forecasts are based on historical price patterns and may not account for unforeseen market events. Nonetheless, Lookonchain’s data indicates a view that Bitcoin has yet to reach its cycle peak.

尽管该图表表明了看涨的长期轨迹，但其预测是基于历史价格模式的，可能无法解释不可预见的市场事件。但是，Lookonchain的数据表明比特币尚未达到其周期峰值的观点。

#2 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

＃2相对强度指数（RSI）

The RSI is a technical indicator measuring the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions.

RSI是一个技术指标，衡量了最近价格变化的幅度，以评估超买或超卖条件。

“≥ 70: BTC is overbought and may soon fall. ≤ 30: BTC is oversold and may soon increase. The current RSI is 75.56, compared with previous data, it seems that BTC has not yet reached its peak.”

“≥70：BTC被超买了，很快可能会倒下。 ≤30：BTC超卖，可能很快增加。与以前的数据相比，当前的RSI为75.56，似乎BTC尚未达到峰值。”

An RSI reading above 70 typically raises concerns that a correction may be due. However, Lookonchain’s observation underscores their view that despite the high RSI, historical data does not necessarily confirm a definitive market top.

RSI读数超过70，通常会引起人们对可能进行更正的担忧。但是，Lookonchain的观察结果强调了他们的观点，即尽管有很高的RSI，但历史数据并不一定证实确定的市场顶级。

#3 200 Week Moving Average (200W MA) Heatmap

＃3 200周移动平均值（200W MA）热图

Traders often reference the 200W MA as a foundational support or resistance level. Its heatmap variation charts the broader momentum and potential inflection points over a multi-year period.

交易者通常将200W MA作为基础支持或阻力水平。它的热图变化图表了多年来的更广泛的动量和潜在的拐点。

“The 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap shows that the current price point is blue, which means that the price top has not been reached yet, and it is time to hold and buy.”

“ 200周移动的平均热图表明，当前价格是蓝色的，这意味着尚未达到价格上涨，现在该是持有和购买的时候了。”

A “blue” reading on the heatmap implies the market has not displayed the peak signals observed in prior cycles. While some might view this as indicative of further potential upside, others remain cautious given macroeconomic uncertainties.

热图上的“蓝色”读数意味着市场尚未显示在先前周期中观察到的峰值信号。尽管有些人可能认为这表明了进一步的潜在上行空间，但考虑到宏观经济的不确定性，其他人仍然谨慎。

#4 Bitcoin Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed (CVDD)

＃4比特币累积价值硬币日被破坏（CVDD）

Coin Days Destroyed is a long-standing on-chain metric that focuses on how long BTC has remained in a particular wallet before being moved. CVDD aggregates this data over time, aiming to pinpoint points where Bitcoin might be undervalued or overvalued.

被摧毁的硬币日是一个长期存在的链度指标，侧重于BTC在被移动之前已留在特定钱包中的时间。 CVDD会随着时间的推移将这些数据汇总，目的是指出可能被低估或高估比特币的点。

“When the BTC price touches the green line, the $BTC price is undervalued and it is a good buying opportunity. The current CVDD shows that the top of $BTC does not seem to have been reached yet.”

“当BTC价格碰到绿线时，$ BTC的价格被低估了，这是一个很好的购买机会。当前的CVDD表明，$ BTC的顶部似乎还没有达到。”

According to Lookonchain, Bitcoin’s position relative to this metric implies that the market has not encountered the historically observed top conditions, suggesting the possibility of further upward momentum.

根据Lookonchain的说法，比特币相对于该指标的位置表明，市场并未遇到历史上观察到的最高条件，这表明可能会进一步向上势头。

#5 2-Year MA Multiplier

＃5 2年MA乘数

The 2-Year Moving Average Multiplier is another widely referenced model that compares Bitcoin’s current price to its two-year moving average.

2年移动平均乘数是另一个广泛引用的模型，将比特币的当前价格与其为期两年的移动平均线进行了比较。

“The 2-Year MA Multiplier shows that the price of $BTC is in the middle of the red and green lines. It has not touched the red line and the market has not reached the top yet.”

“ 2年的MA乘数表明，$ BTC的价格位于红线和绿色线的中间。它尚未触及红线，市场尚未达到顶峰。”

Historically, Bitcoin’s price nearing or surpassing the upper red line has often coincided with cycle peaks. Since Bitcoin remains in a mid-range position, the data suggests that a top may not have materialized yet—though this does not eliminate the risk of further volatility.

从历史上看，比特币的价格接近或超过了上层红线，通常与循环峰一致。由于比特币仍处于中距离位置，因此数据表明顶部可能还没有实现，尽管这并不能消除进一步波动的风险。

Overall, Lookonchain’s analysis, based on these five indicators, points to a conclusion that the top of Bitcoin’s current market cycle may remain undiscovered.

总体而言，基于这五个指标，Lookonchain的分析指出了一个结论，即比特币当前市场周期的顶部可能仍未发现。

At press time, BTC traded at $99,419.

发稿时，BTC的交易价格为99,419美元。