比特幣（BTC）Rainbow Chart，RSI，200W MA Heatmap，CVDD，2年MA乘數指標表明市場頂部可能不在

在昨天的比特幣崩潰之後，市場參與者正在仔細研究市場資本化的主要加密貨幣是否可以反彈，還是面臨另一個下降的前景。

Bitcoin price crashed again on Friday. Following the event, market participants are keeping a close eye on whether the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization will experience a rebound or if it faces the prospect of another decline.

比特幣價格在星期五再次崩潰。活動結束後，市場參與者密切關注市場資本化領先的加密貨幣是否會反彈，還是面臨另一個下降的前景。

In a post shared on X today, February 4, on-chain analysis data provider Lookonchain offered insights into five critical indicators that may help traders and investors assess Bitcoin’s current position.

在2月4日在X上分享的一篇文章中，鏈上分析數據提供商Lookonchain提供了五個關鍵指標的見解，這些指標可能會幫助交易者和投資者評估比特幣的當前位置。

“The price of Bitcoin experienced a major crash yesterday! Will it continue to rise or fall from the top? Let’s use 5 indicators to see if BTC is at its peak now,” Lookonchain writes.

“昨天比特幣的價格發生了重大崩潰！它會繼續從頂部升起還是跌落？讓我們使用5個指標來查看BTC是否現在達到頂峰。” Lookonchain寫道。

#1 Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

＃1比特幣彩虹圖

Described by Lookonchain as “a long-term valuation tool that uses a logarithmic growth curve to forecast the potential future price direction of BTC,” the Rainbow Chart is often employed to gauge whether Bitcoin might be undervalued, overvalued, or approaching a key turning point.

Lookonchain將其描述為“使用對數增長曲線預測BTC潛在價格方向的長期估值工具”，彩虹圖通常用於衡量是否可能被低估，高估比特幣，或接近關鍵轉折點。

“The NEW Bitcoin Rainbow2023 Chart shows that you can still hold BTC, and BTC will top above $250K this cycle.”

“新的比特幣Rainbow2023圖表顯示，您仍然可以持有BTC，而BTC將在這個週期中高於25萬美元。”

While this chart suggests a bullish long-term trajectory, its forecasts are based on historical price patterns and may not account for unforeseen market events. Nonetheless, Lookonchain’s data indicates a view that Bitcoin has yet to reach its cycle peak.

儘管該圖表表明了看漲的長期軌跡，但其預測是基於歷史價格模式的，可能無法解釋不可預見的市場事件。但是，Lookonchain的數據表明比特幣尚未達到其周期峰值的觀點。

#2 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

＃2相對強度指數（RSI）

The RSI is a technical indicator measuring the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions.

RSI是一個技術指標，衡量了最近價格變化的幅度，以評估超買或超賣條件。

“≥ 70: BTC is overbought and may soon fall. ≤ 30: BTC is oversold and may soon increase. The current RSI is 75.56, compared with previous data, it seems that BTC has not yet reached its peak.”

“≥70：BTC被超買了，很快可能會倒下。 ≤30：BTC超賣，可能很快增加。與以前的數據相比，當前的RSI為75.56，似乎BTC尚未達到峰值。”

An RSI reading above 70 typically raises concerns that a correction may be due. However, Lookonchain’s observation underscores their view that despite the high RSI, historical data does not necessarily confirm a definitive market top.

RSI讀數超過70，通常會引起人們對可能進行更正的擔憂。但是，Lookonchain的觀察結果強調了他們的觀點，即儘管有很高的RSI，但歷史數據並不一定證實確定的市場頂級。

#3 200 Week Moving Average (200W MA) Heatmap

＃3 200週移動平均值（200W MA）熱圖

Traders often reference the 200W MA as a foundational support or resistance level. Its heatmap variation charts the broader momentum and potential inflection points over a multi-year period.

交易者通常將200W MA作為基礎支持或阻力水平。它的熱圖變化圖表了多年來的更廣泛的動量和潛在的拐點。

“The 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap shows that the current price point is blue, which means that the price top has not been reached yet, and it is time to hold and buy.”

“ 200週移動的平均熱圖表明，當前價格是藍色的，這意味著尚未達到價格上漲，現在該是持有和購買的時候了。”

A “blue” reading on the heatmap implies the market has not displayed the peak signals observed in prior cycles. While some might view this as indicative of further potential upside, others remain cautious given macroeconomic uncertainties.

熱圖上的“藍色”讀數意味著市場尚未顯示在先前週期中觀察到的峰值信號。儘管有些人可能認為這表明了進一步的潛在上行空間，但考慮到宏觀經濟的不確定性，其他人仍然謹慎。

#4 Bitcoin Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed (CVDD)

＃4比特幣累積價值硬幣日被破壞（CVDD）

Coin Days Destroyed is a long-standing on-chain metric that focuses on how long BTC has remained in a particular wallet before being moved. CVDD aggregates this data over time, aiming to pinpoint points where Bitcoin might be undervalued or overvalued.

被摧毀的硬幣日是一個長期存在的鏈度指標，側重於BTC在被移動之前已留在特定錢包中的時間。 CVDD會隨著時間的推移將這些數據匯總，目的是指出可能被低估或高估比特幣的點。

“When the BTC price touches the green line, the $BTC price is undervalued and it is a good buying opportunity. The current CVDD shows that the top of $BTC does not seem to have been reached yet.”

“當BTC價格碰到綠線時，$ BTC的價格被低估了，這是一個很好的購買機會。當前的CVDD表明，$ BTC的頂部似乎還沒有達到。”

According to Lookonchain, Bitcoin’s position relative to this metric implies that the market has not encountered the historically observed top conditions, suggesting the possibility of further upward momentum.

根據Lookonchain的說法，比特幣相對於該指標的位置表明，市場並未遇到歷史上觀察到的最高條件，這表明可能會進一步向上勢頭。

#5 2-Year MA Multiplier

＃5 2年MA乘數

The 2-Year Moving Average Multiplier is another widely referenced model that compares Bitcoin’s current price to its two-year moving average.

2年移動平均乘數是另一個廣泛引用的模型，將比特幣的當前價格與其為期兩年的移動平均線進行了比較。

“The 2-Year MA Multiplier shows that the price of $BTC is in the middle of the red and green lines. It has not touched the red line and the market has not reached the top yet.”

“ 2年的MA乘數表明，$ BTC的價格位於紅線和綠色線的中間。它尚未觸及紅線，市場尚未達到頂峰。”

Historically, Bitcoin’s price nearing or surpassing the upper red line has often coincided with cycle peaks. Since Bitcoin remains in a mid-range position, the data suggests that a top may not have materialized yet—though this does not eliminate the risk of further volatility.

從歷史上看，比特幣的價格接近或超過了上層紅線，通常與循環峰一致。由於比特幣仍處於中距離位置，因此數據表明頂部可能還沒有實現，儘管這並不能消除進一步波動的風險。

Overall, Lookonchain’s analysis, based on these five indicators, points to a conclusion that the top of Bitcoin’s current market cycle may remain undiscovered.

總體而言，基於這五個指標，Lookonchain的分析指出了一個結論，即比特幣當前市場週期的頂部可能仍未發現。

At press time, BTC traded at $99,419.

發稿時，BTC的交易價格為99,419美元。