比特币（BTC）以11.7％的损失结束了Q1 2025

这标志着BTC在过去15场第一季度表演中排名第12位。只有2015年第1季度的低迷状况更加糟糕，当时市场仍然因戈克斯山的崩溃而陷入困境

Bitcoin (BTC) began 2025 with an 11.7% loss in the first quarter, its weakest start to a year since 2015, according to NYDIG Research. As the second quarter commences, traders are closely monitoring key levels and macro developments amid renewed volatility.

根据NYDIG Research的数据，比特币（BTC）始于2025年，第一季度损失11.7％，这是自2015年以来最弱的开始。随着第二季度的开始，交易者正在密切监视关键水平和宏观发展，并在更新的波动性中。

This places BTC’s performance 12th out of the past 15 first-quarter performances. Only the 2015 Q1 downturn, which saw the market still recovering from the Mt. Gox collapse and the 2013 bull cycle peak, fared worse.

这使BTC的表现在过去15场第一季度表演中排名第12。只有2015年第1季度的下滑，该市场仍将市场从Gox山倒塌和2013年牛周期峰值中恢复，情况越来越糟。

Tariffs and sell-offs cloud crypto outlook

关税和抛售云加密前景

President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs, announced last week, triggered a brutal sell-off in equities. The U.S. stock market lost $5.4 trillion in value over two sessions, pushing the S&P 500 to its lowest in 11 months. The Nasdaq 100 also slid into bear market territory.

上周宣布的唐纳德·特朗普总统的广泛关税引发了股票的残酷抛售。美国股市在两次会议上损失了5.4万亿美元的价值，将标准普尔500指数推向11个月内的最低水平。纳斯达克100号也滑入了熊市市场。

The crypto market, which initially appeared to be decoupling, has begun to feel the pressure. While BTC remained afloat during the initial shock, the weekend saw flat movement, signaling no clear direction.

最初似乎是脱钩的加密市场已经开始感到压力。尽管BTC在最初的冲击期间保持漂浮，但周末看到平坦的运动，没有明确的方向。

“It’s a fog of war now. No clear trend over the weekend,” said former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, adding that Monday’s opening of U.S. futures will be a key moment.

前Bitmex首席执行官亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）说：“这是战争的雾。在周末没有明确的趋势。”他补充说，周一的美国期货开幕将是一个关键时刻。

BTC nears support as traders sound caution

随着交易者的声音谨慎，BTC接近支持

Technical analysts are keenly watching the $77,500 level. Jesse Colombo flagged it as “critical support.” Failure to hold could spark a sharp decline, he warned.

技术分析师敏锐地观看了77,500美元的水平。杰西·科伦坡（Jesse Colombo）将其标记为“关键支持”。他警告说，不举行可能会急剧下降。

“We need to hold here or else 69-74k officially comes into play,” cautioned CrediBULL Crypto. He noted that Ethereum (ETH) and most altcoins have struggled to hold their ranges, indicating broader market fragility.

Credibull Crypto警告说：“我们需要在这里持有69-74K正式发挥作用。”他指出，以太坊（ETH）和大多数山寨币都在努力保持其范围，这表明市场脆弱性更大。

“If BTC breaks down, ETH likely revisits sub-$1,800,” he added, highlighting an orange zone of interest below current levels. For those looking for long-term spot entries, he suggested this zone as a possible accumulation range—but again, with caution.

他补充说：“如果BTC分解，ETH可能会重新审视低于1,800美元。”对于那些寻求长期斑点条目的人，他建议该区域可能是一个可能的积累范围，但再次谨慎。

Q1 declines often precede larger trends

第1季度下降通常在更大的趋势之前

Historically, Q1 losses in BTC have sent mixed signals. In 2020, Bitcoin dropped 9.4% in the first quarter but went on to rally over 300% by year-end. However, in 2014, 2018, and 2022—other years with negative Q1 returns—Bitcoin ended the year lower.

从历史上看，BTC中的第一季度损失发出了混杂的信号。在2020年，比特币在第一季度下降了9.4％，但到年底持续了超过300％。但是，在2014年，2018年和2022年（另一年为Q1回报率负面的年份）较低的一年结束。

This year’s backdrop adds another layer of complexity. While the Trump administration has pulled back regulatory lawsuits against crypto firms and offered some clarity, the macro picture remains largely pessimistic. Rising recession risks and tighter monetary policy reduce the chances of a broad crypto rally in the short term.

今年的背景增加了另一层复杂性。尽管特朗普政府退缩了针对加密货币公司的监管诉讼并提供了一些清晰度，但宏观情况仍然在很大程度上是悲观的。经济衰退的风险上升和更严格的货币政策减少了短期加密集会的机会。

Meanwhile, on-chain sentiment shows mixed signals. As Ali Martinez pointed out, 91,900 BTC were withdrawn from exchanges in the past month. This could indicate long-term confidence or a shift toward private custody amid market instability.

同时，链上的情绪显示出混合信号。正如阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）所指出的那样，过去一个月，有91,900 BTC从交流中撤回。这可能表明在市场不稳定的情况下，长期信心或向私人监护权转移。

BTC volatility returns as new quarter begins

随着新季度的开始，BTC波动率的回报

As the market opened on Monday, participants showed signs of defensive positioning. Although BTC remained above $70,000 over the weekend, price action remains largely indecisive.

周一市场开放时，参与者表现出防御性定位的迹象。尽管周末BTC仍保持在70,000美元以上，但价格行动仍然在很大程度上是优柔寡断的。

With equities still facing pressure, Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets could test its resilience this week.

由于股票仍然面临压力，比特币与风险资产的相关性可能会在本周测试其弹性。

Traders now face a technical and psychological battleground. If $77,500 fails to hold, attention will shift to the $69,000–$74,000 zone. Below that, some traders are eyeing a deeper reset unless buyers step in quickly.

交易者现在面临技术和心理战场。如果$ 77,500无法持有，注意力将转移到69,000- $ 74,000的区域。在此之下，除非买家迅速介入，否则一些交易者正在关注更深层次的重置。

And with tightening macro conditions, the next few sessions could set the tone for Q2. For now, BTC trades in a fragile range, and sentiment has turned cautious following its worst Q1 in 10 years.

在宏观条件下，接下来的几个会议可能会为Q2定下基调。目前，BTC在脆弱的范围内进行交易，并且在10年来最糟糕的第一季度之后，情绪变得谨慎。