比特幣（BTC）以11.7％的損失結束了Q1 2025

這標誌著BTC在過去15場第一季度表演中排名第12位。只有2015年第1季度的低迷狀況更加糟糕，當時市場仍然因戈克斯山的崩潰而陷入困境

Bitcoin (BTC) began 2025 with an 11.7% loss in the first quarter, its weakest start to a year since 2015, according to NYDIG Research. As the second quarter commences, traders are closely monitoring key levels and macro developments amid renewed volatility.

根據NYDIG Research的數據，比特幣（BTC）始於2025年，第一季度損失11.7％，這是自2015年以來最弱的開始。隨著第二季度的開始，交易者正在密切監視關鍵水平和宏觀發展，並在更新的波動性中。

This places BTC’s performance 12th out of the past 15 first-quarter performances. Only the 2015 Q1 downturn, which saw the market still recovering from the Mt. Gox collapse and the 2013 bull cycle peak, fared worse.

這使BTC的表現在過去15場第一季度表演中排名第12。只有2015年第1季度的下滑，該市場仍將市場從Gox山倒塌和2013年牛週期峰值中恢復，情況越來越糟。

Tariffs and sell-offs cloud crypto outlook

關稅和拋售雲加密前景

President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs, announced last week, triggered a brutal sell-off in equities. The U.S. stock market lost $5.4 trillion in value over two sessions, pushing the S&P 500 to its lowest in 11 months. The Nasdaq 100 also slid into bear market territory.

上周宣布的唐納德·特朗普總統的廣泛關稅引發了股票的殘酷拋售。美國股市在兩次會議上損失了5.4萬億美元的價值，將標準普爾500指數推向11個月內的最低水平。納斯達克100號也滑入了熊市市場。

The crypto market, which initially appeared to be decoupling, has begun to feel the pressure. While BTC remained afloat during the initial shock, the weekend saw flat movement, signaling no clear direction.

最初似乎是脫鉤的加密市場已經開始感到壓力。儘管BTC在最初的衝擊期間保持漂浮，但周末看到平坦的運動，沒有明確的方向。

“It’s a fog of war now. No clear trend over the weekend,” said former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, adding that Monday’s opening of U.S. futures will be a key moment.

前Bitmex首席執行官亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）說：“這是戰爭的霧。在周末沒有明確的趨勢。”他補充說，週一的美國期貨開幕將是一個關鍵時刻。

BTC nears support as traders sound caution

隨著交易者的聲音謹慎，BTC接近支持

Technical analysts are keenly watching the $77,500 level. Jesse Colombo flagged it as “critical support.” Failure to hold could spark a sharp decline, he warned.

技術分析師敏銳地觀看了77,500美元的水平。傑西·科倫坡（Jesse Colombo）將其標記為“關鍵支持”。他警告說，不舉行可能會急劇下降。

“We need to hold here or else 69-74k officially comes into play,” cautioned CrediBULL Crypto. He noted that Ethereum (ETH) and most altcoins have struggled to hold their ranges, indicating broader market fragility.

Credibull Crypto警告說：“我們需要在這裡持有69-74K正式發揮作用。”他指出，以太坊（ETH）和大多數山寨幣都在努力保持其範圍，這表明市場脆弱性更大。

“If BTC breaks down, ETH likely revisits sub-$1,800,” he added, highlighting an orange zone of interest below current levels. For those looking for long-term spot entries, he suggested this zone as a possible accumulation range—but again, with caution.

他補充說：“如果BTC分解，ETH可能會重新審視低於1,800美元。”對於那些尋求長期斑點條目的人，他建議該區域可能是一個可能的積累範圍，但再次謹慎。

Q1 declines often precede larger trends

第1季度下降通常在更大的趨勢之前

Historically, Q1 losses in BTC have sent mixed signals. In 2020, Bitcoin dropped 9.4% in the first quarter but went on to rally over 300% by year-end. However, in 2014, 2018, and 2022—other years with negative Q1 returns—Bitcoin ended the year lower.

從歷史上看，BTC中的第一季度損失發出了混雜的信號。在2020年，比特幣在第一季度下降了9.4％，但到年底持續了超過300％。但是，在2014年，2018年和2022年（另一年為Q1回報率負面的年份）較低的一年結束。

This year’s backdrop adds another layer of complexity. While the Trump administration has pulled back regulatory lawsuits against crypto firms and offered some clarity, the macro picture remains largely pessimistic. Rising recession risks and tighter monetary policy reduce the chances of a broad crypto rally in the short term.

今年的背景增加了另一層複雜性。儘管特朗普政府退縮了針對加密貨幣公司的監管訴訟並提供了一些清晰度，但宏觀情況仍然在很大程度上是悲觀的。經濟衰退的風險上升和更嚴格的貨幣政策減少了短期加密集會的機會。

Meanwhile, on-chain sentiment shows mixed signals. As Ali Martinez pointed out, 91,900 BTC were withdrawn from exchanges in the past month. This could indicate long-term confidence or a shift toward private custody amid market instability.

同時，鏈上的情緒顯示出混合信號。正如阿里·馬丁內斯（Ali Martinez）所指出的那樣，過去一個月，有91,900 BTC從交流中撤回。這可能表明在市場不穩定的情況下，長期信心或向私人監護權轉移。

BTC volatility returns as new quarter begins

隨著新季度的開始，BTC波動率的回報

As the market opened on Monday, participants showed signs of defensive positioning. Although BTC remained above $70,000 over the weekend, price action remains largely indecisive.

週一市場開放時，參與者表現出防禦性定位的跡象。儘管週末BTC仍保持在70,000美元以上，但價格行動仍然在很大程度上是優柔寡斷的。

With equities still facing pressure, Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets could test its resilience this week.

由於股票仍然面臨壓力，比特幣與風險資產的相關性可能會在本週測試其彈性。

Traders now face a technical and psychological battleground. If $77,500 fails to hold, attention will shift to the $69,000–$74,000 zone. Below that, some traders are eyeing a deeper reset unless buyers step in quickly.

交易者現在面臨技術和心理戰場。如果$ 77,500無法持有，注意力將轉移到69,000- $ 74,000的區域。在此之下，除非買家迅速介入，否則一些交易者正在關注更深層次的重置。

And with tightening macro conditions, the next few sessions could set the tone for Q2. For now, BTC trades in a fragile range, and sentiment has turned cautious following its worst Q1 in 10 years.

在宏觀條件下，接下來的幾個會議可能會為Q2定下基調。目前，BTC在脆弱的範圍內進行交易，並且在10年來最糟糕的第一季度之後，情緒變得謹慎。