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无论谁赢得即将到来的选举,加密货币市场的整体前景仍然乐观。然而,比特币和山寨币的方向可能会因领导层的不同而有所不同。
The upcoming U.S. presidential election is set to be a pivotal moment for the crypto industry, with the potential to shape the regulatory landscape and influence the trajectory of digital assets. While both candidates have expressed varying degrees of support for cryptocurrencies, the broader macroeconomic outlook and shifting political dynamics are also expected to impact the performance of Bitcoin and altcoins in the coming months.
即将到来的美国总统大选将成为加密行业的关键时刻,有可能塑造监管格局并影响数字资产的发展轨迹。尽管两位候选人都表达了对加密货币不同程度的支持,但更广泛的宏观经济前景和不断变化的政治动态预计也将影响未来几个月比特币和山寨币的表现。
According to Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, Bitcoin could benefit from potential U.S. debt downgrades and tighter fiscal policies. This could enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against financial instability. However, Sigel anticipates a more complex path for altcoins, with Trump’s policies possibly favoring non-Bitcoin digital assets.
VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 表示,比特币可能受益于美国潜在的债务评级下调和更紧缩的财政政策。这可能会增强比特币作为金融不稳定对冲工具的吸引力。然而,西格尔预计山寨币的发展道路将更加复杂,特朗普的政策可能有利于非比特币数字资产。
On the other hand, James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, suggests that a Trump presidency could weaken the U.S. dollar due to protectionist trade policies and inflationary moves. This would likely boost Bitcoin as a safeguard against a devaluing dollar. Additionally, Trump’s pro-crypto stance, along with his vice-presidential pick J.D. Vance, could create a more welcoming regulatory environment for digital currencies.
另一方面,CoinShares 研究主管詹姆斯·巴特菲尔 (James Butterfill) 表示,由于保护主义贸易政策和通胀举措,特朗普当选总统可能会削弱美元。这可能会提振比特币作为抵御美元贬值的保障措施。此外,特朗普的支持加密货币立场以及他的副总统候选人 JD Vance 可能会为数字货币创造一个更受欢迎的监管环境。
In contrast, Butterfill argues that a Harris presidency could bring a more cautious approach to crypto regulation, differing from Biden's stricter stance. However, Harris's relatively vague position on cryptocurrency leaves room for uncertainty. This ambiguity could benefit Bitcoin, while altcoins may face increased regulatory scrutiny, potentially tightening the market for non-Bitcoin digital assets.
相比之下,巴特菲尔认为,哈里斯担任总统可能会对加密货币监管采取更加谨慎的态度,这与拜登更严格的立场不同。然而,哈里斯对加密货币的相对模糊立场留下了不确定性的空间。这种模糊性可能有利于比特币,而山寨币可能面临更严格的监管审查,从而可能收紧非比特币数字资产市场。
According to Deribit data, there is volatility ahead. On Friday at 08:00 UTC, Deribit will see the expiration of BTC and ETH options contracts valued at $4.2 billion and $1 billion, respectively. Options give holders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a specified price within a certain timeframe.
根据 Deribit 数据,未来将出现波动。周五 08:00 UTC,Deribit 将看到价值分别为 42 亿美元和 10 亿美元的 BTC 和 ETH 期权合约到期。期权赋予持有人在一定时间范围内以指定价格买卖资产的权利,但没有义务。
However, longer-term crypto options traders have set their sights on Bitcoin hitting fresh highs in the coming weeks. Options contracts expiring on November 8 are heavily concentrated at the $75,000 strike price, signaling a key point of interest for market participants. Similarly, open interest for options expiring on November 29 shows significant bets placed at the $80,000 strike level, reflecting growing optimism among traders.
然而,长期加密货币期权交易者已将目光投向比特币在未来几周内创下新高。 11 月 8 日到期的期权合约主要集中在 75,000 美元的执行价,这标志着市场参与者的一个关键兴趣点。同样,11 月 29 日到期的期权未平仓合约显示,大量押注押在 80,000 美元的执行水平上,反映出交易者的乐观情绪日益增强。
Despite a narrative that Trump’s pro-crypto stance would drive Bitcoin higher, traders now see macroeconomic factors, such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, as more influential.
尽管有说法称特朗普支持加密货币的立场将推动比特币走高,但交易员现在认为宏观经济因素(例如美联储可能降息)的影响力更大。
Mick Mulvaney, former acting White House Chief of Staff under Donald Trump, described the cryptocurrency industry as one that “breaks the mold” of U.S. politics by appealing to both Democrats and Republicans. In an Oct. 23 interview with NewsNation, where he serves as a contributor, Mulvaney emphasized that crypto doesn't conform to traditional political divisions, crossing party lines in ways few industries do.
唐纳德·特朗普领导下的前代理白宫办公厅主任米克·马尔瓦尼 (Mick Mulvaney) 将加密货币行业描述为通过吸引民主党和共和党而“打破美国政治模式”的行业。 Mulvaney 在 10 月 23 日接受 NewsNation 采访时强调,加密货币不符合传统的政治分歧,以很少有行业能做到的方式跨越党派界限。
“Crypto doesn’t fit neatly into the old Republican-Democrat silos,” Mulvaney said, highlighting the bipartisan interest in the growing sector. He went on to say that lawmakers are gradually “realigning” their perspectives to adapt to emerging industries like cryptocurrency.
马尔瓦尼表示:“加密货币并不完全适合共和党和民主党的旧模式。”他强调了两党对这一不断增长的行业的兴趣。他接着表示,立法者正在逐渐“重新调整”他们的观点,以适应加密货币等新兴行业。
Reflecting on the evolution of the industry, Mulvaney noted its gradual maturation. “It’s a new industry, and it's starting to mature a little bit — though not much,” he said. Recalling his own experiences from four years ago, Mulvaney remarked on how crypto advocacy in Washington has transformed from individuals sending angry emails from their basements to well-organized, professional operations engaging with lawmakers on Capitol Hill.
回顾该行业的演变,马尔瓦尼指出其逐渐成熟。 “这是一个新行业,它已经开始成熟一点——尽管还不够成熟,”他说。马尔瓦尼回顾了自己四年前的经历,谈到了华盛顿的加密货币倡导如何从个人在地下室发送愤怒的电子邮件转变为与国会山立法者互动的组织良好、专业的行动。
The timing of the election coincides with broader financial developments, notably the first Fed rate cuts in four years and a surge in stock prices. These factors contribute to a perfect storm for Bitcoin to reach new highs, according to Mei. “The fact that this coincides with the Fed rate cuts and a stock market rally only strengthens the argument that Bitcoin could surpass its previous all-time high and climb to $80,000,” Mei added.
选举的时间恰逢更广泛的金融发展,特别是美联储四年来首次降息和股价飙升。梅表示,这些因素促成了比特币创下新高的完美风暴。 Mei 补充道:“事实上,这恰逢美联储降息和股市上涨,这一事实只会强化比特币可能超越之前的历史高点并攀升至 80,000 美元的论点。”
Bitcoin Could Surge to $200,000 by 2025 Says Bernstein
Bernstein 表示,到 2025 年,比特币价格可能飙升至 20 万美元
Bitcoin could reach a staggering $200,000 by the end of 2025 as it moves into what analysts are calling “a new institutional era,” according to a comprehensive report from Bernstein Research released on Oct. 22. The 160-page report, referred to as the “Black Book,” outlines a bullish case for Bitcoin, citing the continued consolidation of the mining industry and increased institutional involvement.
根据 Bernstein Research 10 月 22 日发布的一份综合报告,随着比特币进入分析师所谓的“新制度时代”,到 2025 年底,比特币的价格可能会达到惊人的 20 万美元。这份 160 页的报告被称为《黑皮书》概述了比特币的看涨理由,指出采矿业的持续整合和机构参与的增加。
In a post on X, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, highlighted Bernstein's key points, noting that institutional investors are increasingly dominating the Bitcoin landscape. “Ten global asset managers now hold around $60 billion in Bitcoin wrapped as regulated exchange-traded funds (ETFs), compared to just $12 billion in September 2022,” the report notes. This shift
VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 在 X 上的一篇文章中强调了 Bernstein 的要点,并指出机构投资者越来越主导比特币领域。报告指出:“全球十家资产管理公司目前持有约 600 亿美元的比特币,这些比特币以受监管的交易所交易基金 (ETF) 形式包装,而 2022 年 9 月仅为 120 亿美元。”这种转变
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