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無論誰贏得即將到來的選舉,加密貨幣市場的整體前景仍然樂觀。然而,比特幣和山寨幣的方向可能會因領導層的不同而有所不同。
The upcoming U.S. presidential election is set to be a pivotal moment for the crypto industry, with the potential to shape the regulatory landscape and influence the trajectory of digital assets. While both candidates have expressed varying degrees of support for cryptocurrencies, the broader macroeconomic outlook and shifting political dynamics are also expected to impact the performance of Bitcoin and altcoins in the coming months.
即將到來的美國總統大選將成為加密產業的關鍵時刻,有可能塑造監管格局並影響數位資產的發展軌跡。儘管兩位候選人都表達了對加密貨幣不同程度的支持,但更廣泛的宏觀經濟前景和不斷變化的政治動態預計也將影響未來幾個月比特幣和山寨幣的表現。
According to Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, Bitcoin could benefit from potential U.S. debt downgrades and tighter fiscal policies. This could enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against financial instability. However, Sigel anticipates a more complex path for altcoins, with Trump’s policies possibly favoring non-Bitcoin digital assets.
VanEck 數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 表示,比特幣可能受益於美國潛在的債務評級下調和更緊縮的財政政策。這可能會增強比特幣作為金融不穩定對沖工具的吸引力。然而,西格爾預計山寨幣的發展道路將更加複雜,川普的政策可能有利於非比特幣數位資產。
On the other hand, James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, suggests that a Trump presidency could weaken the U.S. dollar due to protectionist trade policies and inflationary moves. This would likely boost Bitcoin as a safeguard against a devaluing dollar. Additionally, Trump’s pro-crypto stance, along with his vice-presidential pick J.D. Vance, could create a more welcoming regulatory environment for digital currencies.
另一方面,CoinShares 研究主管 James Butterfill 表示,由於保護主義貿易政策和通膨舉措,川普當選總統可能會削弱美元。這可能會提振比特幣作為抵禦美元貶值的保障措施。此外,川普的支持加密貨幣立場以及他的副總統候選人 JD Vance 可能會為數位貨幣創造一個更受歡迎的監管環境。
In contrast, Butterfill argues that a Harris presidency could bring a more cautious approach to crypto regulation, differing from Biden's stricter stance. However, Harris's relatively vague position on cryptocurrency leaves room for uncertainty. This ambiguity could benefit Bitcoin, while altcoins may face increased regulatory scrutiny, potentially tightening the market for non-Bitcoin digital assets.
相較之下,巴特菲爾認為,哈里斯擔任總統可能會對加密貨幣監管採取更謹慎的態度,這與拜登更嚴格的立場不同。然而,哈里斯對加密貨幣的相對模糊立場留下了不確定性的空間。這種模糊性可能有利於比特幣,而山寨幣可能面臨更嚴格的監管審查,這可能會收緊非比特幣數位資產市場。
According to Deribit data, there is volatility ahead. On Friday at 08:00 UTC, Deribit will see the expiration of BTC and ETH options contracts valued at $4.2 billion and $1 billion, respectively. Options give holders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a specified price within a certain timeframe.
根據 Deribit 數據,未來將出現波動。週五 08:00 UTC,Deribit 將看到價值分別為 42 億美元和 10 億美元的 BTC 和 ETH 選擇權合約到期。選擇權賦予持有人在一定時間範圍內以指定價格買賣資產的權利,但沒有義務。
However, longer-term crypto options traders have set their sights on Bitcoin hitting fresh highs in the coming weeks. Options contracts expiring on November 8 are heavily concentrated at the $75,000 strike price, signaling a key point of interest for market participants. Similarly, open interest for options expiring on November 29 shows significant bets placed at the $80,000 strike level, reflecting growing optimism among traders.
然而,長期加密貨幣選擇權交易者已將目光投向比特幣在未來幾週內創下新高。 11 月 8 日到期的選擇權合約主要集中在 75,000 美元的執行價,這標誌著市場參與者的關鍵興趣點。同樣,11 月 29 日到期的選擇權未平倉合約顯示,大量押注押在 8 萬美元的執行水準上,反映出交易者的樂觀情緒日益增強。
Despite a narrative that Trump’s pro-crypto stance would drive Bitcoin higher, traders now see macroeconomic factors, such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, as more influential.
儘管有說法稱川普支持加密貨幣的立場將推動比特幣走高,但交易員現在認為宏觀經濟因素(例如聯準會可能降息)的影響力更大。
Mick Mulvaney, former acting White House Chief of Staff under Donald Trump, described the cryptocurrency industry as one that “breaks the mold” of U.S. politics by appealing to both Democrats and Republicans. In an Oct. 23 interview with NewsNation, where he serves as a contributor, Mulvaney emphasized that crypto doesn't conform to traditional political divisions, crossing party lines in ways few industries do.
唐納德·川普領導下的前代理白宮辦公廳主任米克·馬爾瓦尼 (Mick Mulvaney) 將加密貨幣行業描述為透過吸引民主黨和共和黨而「打破美國政治模式」的行業。 Mulvaney 在 10 月 23 日接受 NewsNation 採訪時強調,加密貨幣不符合傳統的政治分歧,以很少有行業能做到的方式跨越黨派界限。
“Crypto doesn’t fit neatly into the old Republican-Democrat silos,” Mulvaney said, highlighting the bipartisan interest in the growing sector. He went on to say that lawmakers are gradually “realigning” their perspectives to adapt to emerging industries like cryptocurrency.
馬爾瓦尼表示:「加密貨幣並不完全適合共和黨和民主黨的舊模式。」他強調了兩黨對這個不斷增長的行業的興趣。他接著表示,立法者正在逐漸「重新調整」他們的觀點,以適應加密貨幣等新興產業。
Reflecting on the evolution of the industry, Mulvaney noted its gradual maturation. “It’s a new industry, and it's starting to mature a little bit — though not much,” he said. Recalling his own experiences from four years ago, Mulvaney remarked on how crypto advocacy in Washington has transformed from individuals sending angry emails from their basements to well-organized, professional operations engaging with lawmakers on Capitol Hill.
回顧該行業的演變,馬爾瓦尼指出其逐漸成熟。 「這是一個新行業,它已經開始成熟一點——儘管還不夠成熟,」他說。馬爾瓦尼回顧了自己四年前的經歷,談到了華盛頓的加密貨幣倡導如何從個人在地下室發送憤怒的電子郵件轉變為與國會山立法者互動的組織良好、專業的行動。
The timing of the election coincides with broader financial developments, notably the first Fed rate cuts in four years and a surge in stock prices. These factors contribute to a perfect storm for Bitcoin to reach new highs, according to Mei. “The fact that this coincides with the Fed rate cuts and a stock market rally only strengthens the argument that Bitcoin could surpass its previous all-time high and climb to $80,000,” Mei added.
選舉的時間恰逢更廣泛的金融發展,特別是聯準會四年來首次降息和股價飆升。梅伊表示,這些因素促成了比特幣創下新高的完美風暴。 Mei 補充說:“事實上,這恰逢美聯儲降息和股市上漲,這一事實只會強化比特幣可能超越之前的歷史高點並攀升至 80,000 美元的論點。”
Bitcoin Could Surge to $200,000 by 2025 Says Bernstein
Bernstein 表示,到 2025 年,比特幣價格可能飆升至 20 萬美元
Bitcoin could reach a staggering $200,000 by the end of 2025 as it moves into what analysts are calling “a new institutional era,” according to a comprehensive report from Bernstein Research released on Oct. 22. The 160-page report, referred to as the “Black Book,” outlines a bullish case for Bitcoin, citing the continued consolidation of the mining industry and increased institutional involvement.
根據Bernstein Research 10 月22 日發布的一份綜合報告,隨著比特幣進入分析師所謂的“新制度時代”,到2025 年底,比特幣的價格可能會達到驚人的20 萬美元。的報告被稱為《黑皮書》概述了比特幣的看漲理由,指出採礦業的持續整合和機構參與的增加。
In a post on X, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, highlighted Bernstein's key points, noting that institutional investors are increasingly dominating the Bitcoin landscape. “Ten global asset managers now hold around $60 billion in Bitcoin wrapped as regulated exchange-traded funds (ETFs), compared to just $12 billion in September 2022,” the report notes. This shift
VanEck 數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 在 X 上的一篇文章中強調了 Bernstein 的要點,並指出機構投資者越來越主導比特幣領域。報告指出:“全球十家資產管理公司目前持有約 600 億美元的比特幣,這些比特幣以受監管的交易所交易基金 (ETF) 形式包裝,而 2022 年 9 月僅為 120 億美元。”這種轉變
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