比特币（BTC）价格更新：Hash Ribbon指示器闪烁绿色，因为BTC努力打破$ 90,000的电阻

比特币目前的交易价格为87,373美元，显示出混合信号作为历史上可靠的购买指标闪烁绿色，而加密货币则努力突破90,000美元的电阻水平。

Bitcoin faces several challenges that have kept its price below $90,000 despite a historically reliable buy indicator flashing green.

尽管历史上可靠的购买指标闪烁绿色，但比特币面临的几个挑战仍将其价格保持在90,000美元以下。

This week, the Hash Ribbon indicator has just issued a bullish signal for Bitcoin.

本周，哈希丝带指标刚刚发布了对比特币的看涨信号。

This on-chain metric was designed by analyst Charles Edwards to identify periods when mining difficulty and hash power have gone through capitulation and begun to recover. A “buy” signal is triggered when the 30-day moving average crosses above the 60-day moving average of Bitcoin’s hash rate. This suggests that any period of miner-driven market stress may be ending.

该链度量是由分析师查尔斯·爱德华兹（Charles Edwards）设计的，目的是确定采矿难度和哈希功率经过压制并开始恢复的时期。 30天移动平均线超过比特币哈希率的60天移动平均值时，触发了“买入”信号。这表明，任何以矿工驱动的市场压力都可能结束。

The signal has only appeared 20 times in Bitcoin’s history. In 17 of those 20 instances, the most recent local price low was not broken on a closing basis, giving the indicator an 85% success rate.

该信号在比特币的历史中仅出现了20次。在这20个实例中的17个中，最新的当地价格低下没有在闭幕式中破坏，这使指标获得了85％的成功率。

Bitcoin Archive noted: “This is one of the most reliable ‘buy’ indicators. Price gains have followed seven out of the last seven times this indicator was triggered.”

比特币档案馆指出：“这是最可靠的'买入'指标之一。在最后七次中，触发了该指标的价格上涨七次。”

Hash Ribbon Flashes Buy Signal

哈希丝带闪光购买信号

This is one of the most reliable "buy" indicators.

这是最可靠的“购买”指标之一。

Significant price gains have followed 7 out of the last 7 times this indicator was triggered.

在最后7次中，该指标被触发了7次。

Created by @caprioleio

由@caprioleio创建

This is interesting because usually, we see more sell-side derivatives volumes during periods of strong price decline

这很有趣，因为通常，我们在价格下降的时期看到更多的卖方衍生品数量

Despite this bullish indicator, Bitcoin faces several challenges that have kept its price below $90,000. The cryptocurrency has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows in recent days after reaching a weekly high of $88,752 on March 24.

尽管有了这个看涨的指标，但比特币仍面临几个挑战，其价格将其价格低于90,000美元。加密货币在3月24日达到每周高点88,752美元后，近几天在近几天形成了一系列的低点和低点。

One major factor restraining Bitcoin’s price is the constant selling pressure from short-term holders. These are investors who have held their coins for less than 155 days.

限制比特币价格的一个主要因素是短期持有人不断销售压力。这些投资者持有硬币不到155天。

According to Glassnode’s analysis, the current Bitcoin market is “top-heavy.” This means that many investors who purchased BTC at higher prices hold a large portion of Bitcoin’s supply.

根据GlassNode的分析，当前的比特币市场“最丰富”。这意味着许多以较高价格购买BTC的投资者拥有大部分比特币供应。

The volume of short-term holder supply held at a loss has surged to 3.4 million BTC. This is the largest volume of short-term holder supply in loss since July 2018.

亏损的短期持有人供应量已飙升至340万BTC。这是自2018年7月以来最大的短期持有人损失供应。

This selling pressure is reflected in Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score. The score has remained below 0.1 since Bitcoin’s price dropped from $108,000 to the $93,000-$97,000 range.

这种销售压力反映在比特币的累积趋势评分中。自比特币的价格从108,000美元下降到93,000美元至97,000美元的范围以来，得分一直保持在0.1以下。

A score lower than 0.5 signals distribution (selling) instead of accumulation. A value lower than 0.1 highlights more intense selling pressure in the market.

得分低于0.5信号分布（销售）而不是累积。低于0.1的价值突出了市场上更强烈的销售压力。

Another factor limiting Bitcoin’s price movement is the decrease in market liquidity. On-chain transfer volumes have dropped to $5.2 billion daily, a 47% decline from peak levels during the rally to all-time highs.

限制比特币价格变动的另一个因素是市场流动性的下降。每天的链转移量下降到52亿美元，从集会期间的峰值水平下降到47％。

The active address count has also decreased by 18%. It has fallen from 950,000 in November 2024 to 780,000 currently.

主动地址计数也减少了18％。它已从2024年11月的950,000下降到目前的780,000。

The Bitcoin futures market shows similar cooling trends. Open interest has dropped 24% from $71.85 billion to $54.65 billion, with funding rates also declining.

比特币期货市场显示出类似的冷却趋势。开放利息已从718.5亿美元降至546.5亿美元，资金利率也下降了24％。

This combination of deleveraging and liquidity contraction limits the market’s ability to push past $90,000. There are simply not enough buy orders to absorb the sell orders at these price levels.

去杠杆化和流动性收缩的这种结合限制了市场推高90,000美元的能力。根本没有足够的购买订单来吸收这些价格水平的卖出订单。

Lack of Demand

缺乏需求

The market also faces a lack of new demand. Glassnode data shows that the current bull cycle isn’t seeing many new buyers enter the market. The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap shows supply concentration at higher price levels ($100,000-$108,000) but no large influx of buyers at lower levels.

市场还面临缺乏新需求。玻璃节数据显示，当前的公牛周期没有看到许多新买家进入市场。成本基础分配热图显示供应集中在较高的价格水平（$ 100,000- $ 108,000），但没有大量的买家在较低水平上涌入。

Adding to the market complexity is the upcoming expiry of $16.5 billion in Bitcoin options on March 28. This represents a record-breaking monthly options expiry that could affect the price in either direction.

3月28日，即将到来的比特币期权，即将到期165亿美元的到期。这代表了创纪录的每月期权到期，可能会影响任何一个方向的价格。

Currently, call (buy) options stand at $10.5 billion, while put (sell) options are at $6 billion. However, $7.6 billion of these call options are set at $92,000 or higher, requiring a 6.4% price increase to become viable.

目前，致电（买）期权为105亿美元，而看跌期权为60亿美元。但是，这些电话期权中有76亿美元设定为$ 92,000或更高，需要增加6.4％的价格才能使其可行。

For bears to minimize their losses, they need to push Bitcoin below $84,000 before the March 28 expiry. This would increase the value of put options and strengthen their position.

为了使熊减少损失，他们需要在3月28日到期之前将比特币低于84,000美元。这将提高PUT期权的价值并加强其位置。

Bulls, on the other hand, can maximize their gains by driving the price above $90,000. This could create momentum for a bullish trend in April, especially if inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs resume at a strong pace.

另一方面，公牛可以通过以90,000美元的价格推动价格来最大化其收益。这可能会在四月份为看涨趋势创造动力，尤其是如果以很强的速度流入斑点比特币ETF。

Despite current challenges, long-term holders still retain about 4

尽管目前面临挑战，但长期持有人仍然保留大约4