比特币 (BTC) 价格目标为 10 万美元，因为 Stock-to-Flow 模型表明它已为下一阶段过渡做好了准备

比特币存量到流量（S2F）模型引起了人们的关注，因为它表明比特币可能正在为新的阶段性转变做好准备，这将使其价格巩固在 10 万美元以上

Bitcoin price showed signs of strength on Monday, October 28, as the bulls looked to start the week on a positive note. BTC price was trading above $68,000 on Monday morning, up around 1% in the past 24 hours. A notable break above $69,000 would set the stage for a sustained rally in the coming months.

10 月 28 日星期一，比特币价格显示出走强的迹象，多头希望以积极的姿态开启本周。周一上午，BTC 价格交投于 68,000 美元上方，过去 24 小时内上涨约 1%。显着突破 69,000 美元将为未来几个月的持续反弹奠定基础。

Speaking of sustained rally, the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is pointing to an interesting trend in the long-term outlook for Bitcoin.

说到持续反弹，比特币库存流量模型指出了比特币长期前景的一个有趣趋势。

BTC Price Is Gearing Up For Next Phase Transition

比特币价格正在为下一阶段的转变做好准备

The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model is suggesting that Bitcoin may be gearing up for a new phase transition that would solidify its price above $100,000. The S2F model, originally developed for commodities like gold and silver, measures an asset’s existing supply against the rate of new units entering the market.

比特币存量到流量 (S2F) 模型表明，比特币可能正在为新的阶段性转变做好准备，这将使其价格巩固在 10 万美元以上。 S2F 模型最初是为黄金和白银等大宗商品开发的，它根据进入市场的新单位的比率来衡量资产的现有供应量。

In the case of BTC, the S2F model calculates scarcity by taking its fixed supply of 21 million BTC into account, along with the block reward halvings that reduce new supply every four years. Each halving event decreases the issuance rate, creating an increasing scarcity that the model correlates with price growth.

就 BTC 而言，S2F 模型通过考虑 2100 万 BTC 的固定供应量以及每四年减少新供应量的区块奖励减半来计算稀缺性。每次减半事件都会降低发行率，从而导致该模型与价格增长相关的稀缺性不断增加。

According to the S2F chart shared by Plan B, these halvings have led to price increases in the months after, with the S2F model accurately forecasting Bitcoin’s transitions into new price levels.

根据 Plan B 分享的 S2F 图表，这些减半导致了接下来几个月的价格上涨，S2F 模型准确地预测了比特币向新价格水平的转变。

BTC Price Last Halved In April 2024

BTC 价格上次减半是在 2024 年 4 月

Bitcoin last halved in April 2024, resulting in the block reward slashing from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. According to the S2F chart, past Bitcoin halvings have always started the price transition into a new phase. The 2020 halving, for example, kickstarted the transition into a new phase above $10,000 that culminated in BTC reaching the previous all-time high of around $66,000.

比特币上次减半是在 2024 年 4 月，导致区块奖励从 6.25 BTC 大幅削减至 3.125 BTC。根据 S2F 图表，过去的比特币减半总是导致价格过渡到一个新阶段。例如，2020 年的减半开启了向 10,000 美元以上新阶段的过渡，最终使 BTC 达到了 66,000 美元左右的历史新高。

Now that the April 2024 halving is six months behind us, the effects of the halving are starting to be factored into the supply and demand of Bitcoin. As such, Bitcoin is looking prime for a phase transition above $100,000.

现在，2024 年 4 月的减半已经过去六个月了，减半的影响开始被考虑到比特币的供需中。因此，比特币有望在 10 万美元以上实现相变。

What Does This Mean For BTC Price?

这对比特币价格意味着什么？

As past phase transitions have played out, a phase transition above $100,000 would solidify the Bitcoin price above this level. With the $100,000 price level now serving as a price floor, this would give the Bitcoin price the support to keep increasing in the months after.

随着过去的相变已经结束，相变超过 10 万美元将使比特币价格巩固在这一水平之上。由于 10 万美元的价格水平现在作为价格下限，这将为比特币价格在未来几个月内继续上涨提供支持。

Previous phase transitions have always led to a new peak before another halving. The anticipated peak for this phase is just below $1,000,000. If past trends hold true, the Bitcoin price could reach this impressive milestone ahead of the next halving, which is expected to take place in 2028.

之前的阶段转变总是会在另一次减半之前导致新的峰值。此阶段的预期峰值略低于 1,000,000 美元。如果过去的趋势成立，比特币价格可能会在下一次减半（预计将于 2028 年发生）之前达到这一令人印象深刻的里程碑。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,340.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 68,340 美元。