比特幣 (BTC) 目標價為 10 萬美元，因為 Stock-to-Flow 模型表明它已為下一階段過渡做好了準備

比特幣存量到流量（S2F）模型引起了人們的關注，因為它表明比特幣可能正在為新的階段性轉變做好準備，這將使其價格鞏固在 10 萬美元以上

Bitcoin price showed signs of strength on Monday, October 28, as the bulls looked to start the week on a positive note. BTC price was trading above $68,000 on Monday morning, up around 1% in the past 24 hours. A notable break above $69,000 would set the stage for a sustained rally in the coming months.

10 月 28 日星期一，比特幣價格顯示出走強的跡象，多頭希望以積極的姿態開啟本週。週一上午，BTC 價格交投於 68,000 美元上方，過去 24 小時內上漲約 1%。顯著突破 69,000 美元將為未來幾個月的持續反彈奠定基礎。

Speaking of sustained rally, the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is pointing to an interesting trend in the long-term outlook for Bitcoin.

說到持續反彈，比特幣庫存流量模型指出了比特幣長期前景的一個有趣趨勢。

BTC Price Is Gearing Up For Next Phase Transition

比特幣價格正在為下一階段的轉變做好準備

The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model is suggesting that Bitcoin may be gearing up for a new phase transition that would solidify its price above $100,000. The S2F model, originally developed for commodities like gold and silver, measures an asset’s existing supply against the rate of new units entering the market.

比特幣存量到流量 (S2F) 模型表明，比特幣可能正在為新的階段性轉變做好準備，這將使其價格鞏固在 10 萬美元以上。 S2F 模型最初是為黃金和白銀等大宗商品開發的，它根據進入市場的新單位的比率來衡量資產的現有供應量。

In the case of BTC, the S2F model calculates scarcity by taking its fixed supply of 21 million BTC into account, along with the block reward halvings that reduce new supply every four years. Each halving event decreases the issuance rate, creating an increasing scarcity that the model correlates with price growth.

就 BTC 而言，S2F 模型透過考慮 2,100 萬 BTC 的固定供應量以及每四年減少新供應量的區塊獎勵減半來計算稀缺性。每次減半事件都會降低發行率，從而導致該模型與價格成長相關的稀缺性不斷增加。

According to the S2F chart shared by Plan B, these halvings have led to price increases in the months after, with the S2F model accurately forecasting Bitcoin’s transitions into new price levels.

根據 Plan B 分享的 S2F 圖表，這些減半導致了接下來幾個月的價格上漲，S2F 模型準確地預測了比特幣向新價格水平的轉變。

BTC Price Last Halved In April 2024

BTC 價格上次減半是在 2024 年 4 月

Bitcoin last halved in April 2024, resulting in the block reward slashing from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. According to the S2F chart, past Bitcoin halvings have always started the price transition into a new phase. The 2020 halving, for example, kickstarted the transition into a new phase above $10,000 that culminated in BTC reaching the previous all-time high of around $66,000.

比特幣上次減半是在 2024 年 4 月，導致區塊獎勵從 6.25 BTC 大幅削減至 3.125 BTC。根據 S2F 圖表，過去的比特幣減半總是導致價格過渡到一個新階段。例如，2020 年的減半開啟了向 10,000 美元以上新階段的過渡，最終使 BTC 達到了 66,000 美元左右的歷史新高。

Now that the April 2024 halving is six months behind us, the effects of the halving are starting to be factored into the supply and demand of Bitcoin. As such, Bitcoin is looking prime for a phase transition above $100,000.

現在，2024 年 4 月的減半已經過去六個月了，減半的影響開始被考慮到比特幣的供需。因此，比特幣有望在 10 萬美元以上實現相變。

What Does This Mean For BTC Price?

這對比特幣價格意味著什麼？

As past phase transitions have played out, a phase transition above $100,000 would solidify the Bitcoin price above this level. With the $100,000 price level now serving as a price floor, this would give the Bitcoin price the support to keep increasing in the months after.

隨著過去的相變已經結束，相變超過 10 萬美元將使比特幣價格鞏固在這一水平之上。由於 10 萬美元的價格水平現在作為價格下限，這將為比特幣價格在未來幾個月內繼續上漲提供支持。

Previous phase transitions have always led to a new peak before another halving. The anticipated peak for this phase is just below $1,000,000. If past trends hold true, the Bitcoin price could reach this impressive milestone ahead of the next halving, which is expected to take place in 2028.

先前的階段轉變總是會在另一次減半之前導致新的高峰。此階段的預期高峰略低於 1,000,000 美元。如果過去的趨勢成立，比特幣價格可能會在下一次減半（預計將於 2028 年發生）之前達到這一令人印象深刻的里程碑。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,340.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 68,340 美元。