比特币 (BTC) 价格可能飙升 10%，具体取决于美国大选结果，以下是值得关注的关键水平

最近的比特币价格波动引起了分析师的极大兴趣，许多分析师利用 UTXO 损益 (P/L) 比率模型来识别潜在的价格峰值。

As the United States prepares for the final results of the presidential election on Tuesday, November 5th, 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) volatility has reached its highest level in three months. This heightened volatility is expected to continue on election day, with some analysts speculating on how candidate sentiment could influence the market.

随着美国为 2024 年 11 月 5 日星期二的总统选举最终结果做准备，比特币 (BTC) 波动性已达到三个月来的最高水平。这种剧烈的波动预计将在选举日继续下去，一些分析师猜测候选人情绪将如何影响市场。

Recent Bitcoin price fluctuations have drawn attention from analysts, who are closely monitoring its potential highs using the UTXO Profit/Loss (P/L) Ratio Model. This model has become essential as it reveals trends in profitability and loss ratios, often indicating critical price cycles and possible reversals.

最近的比特币价格波动引起了分析师的关注，他们正在使用 UTXO 盈亏 (P/L) 比率模型密切监控其潜在高点。该模型变得至关重要，因为它揭示了盈利率和损失率的趋势，通常表明关键的价格周期和可能的逆转。

By analyzing moving averages across various timeframes, including short (7 days), medium (30 days), and long-term (365 days), analysts can better assess Bitcoin’s market health and dynamics.

通过分析不同时间范围（包括短期（7 天）、中期（30 天）和长期（365 天））的移动平均线，分析师可以更好地评估比特币的市场健康状况和动态。

Interestingly, historical data highlighted by white squares on the chart reflects patterns similar to those observed today. This metric suggests that Bitcoin price may be approaching a new peak in the near future.

有趣的是，图表上白色方块突出显示的历史数据反映了与今天观察到的类似的模式。该指标表明比特币价格可能在不久的将来接近新的峰值。

The UTXO P/L Ratio offers insights into the balance between Bitcoin holders who are in profit versus those who are at a loss, often indicating potential price reversals.

UTXO 盈亏比可以洞察盈利的比特币持有者与亏损的比特币持有者之间的平衡，通常表明潜在的价格逆转。

When the 30-day P/L ratio rises above the 365-day moving average, it typically signals a possible price increase.

当 30 天盈亏比升至 365 天移动平均线之上时，通常预示着价格可能上涨。

Historically, when the 30-day average has surpassed the annual average, it has often coincided with price surges.

从历史上看，当30天平均值超过年平均值时，往往与价格飙升同时发生。

This pattern, combined with a decrease in profitability ratios, underscores the importance of short- and medium-term trading strategies.

这种模式，加上盈利率的下降，凸显了中短期交易策略的重要性。

It suggests that if the annual profit average continues to act as a resistance level, Bitcoin price could be poised for new highs, potentially exceeding its recent peaks.

这表明，如果年平均利润继续充当阻力位，比特币价格可能会创下新高，有可能超过近期的峰值。

The State of Exchange Proof of Reserves Post-FTX Collapse

FTX 崩溃后的交易所状态储备证明

With the two-year anniversary of FTX’s collapse on November 6, 2024, the significance of Proof-of-Reserves (PoR) among cryptocurrency exchanges is more relevant than ever.

2024 年 11 月 6 日是 FTX 倒闭两周年纪念日，准备金证明 (PoR) 在加密货币交易所中的重要性比以往任何时候都更加重要。

The downfall of FTX, one of the most notable failures in the crypto industry, highlighted the risks associated with insufficient reserves. This incident emphasized the necessity for exchanges to publicly verify their assets to ensure users feel confident about the safety of their funds.

FTX 的垮台是加密货币行业最显着的失败之一，凸显了与准备金不足相关的风险。这一事件强调了交易所公开验证其资产的必要性，以确保用户对其资金安全充满信心。

Today, most leading exchanges offer PoR reports, although the degree of transparency among them can differ significantly.

如今，大多数领先的交易所都提供 PoR 报告，尽管它们之间的透明度可能存在很大差异。

For example, Binance’s Proof-of-Reserves allows public access to on-chain addresses, enabling users to independently verify their asset holdings.

例如，币安的储备证明允许公众访问链上地址，使用户能够独立验证其资产持有量。

This approach fosters trust among market participants by enhancing transparency regarding asset movements.

这种方法通过提高资产流动的透明度来培养市场参与者之间的信任。

Despite facing regulatory challenges in the U.S., Binance has remained stable, increasing its Bitcoin reserves by 28,000 BTC, or 5%, to a total of 611,000 BTC.

尽管面临美国的监管挑战，币安仍保持稳定，将其比特币储备增加了 28,000 BTC，即 5%，达到 611,000 BTC。

This consistent growth since the collapse of FTX underscores Binance’s resilience, with reserve withdrawals consistently kept below 16%.

自 FTX 崩溃以来的持续增长突显了币安的韧性，准备金提款率始终保持在 16% 以下。

In contrast, Coinbase stands out among major exchanges as it has not yet published a public PoR report. Meanwhile, Bitfinex has also seen a rise in its Bitcoin reserves, further bolstering its credibility.

相比之下，Coinbase 在各大交易所中脱颖而出，因为它尚未发布公开的 PoR 报告。与此同时，Bitfinex 的比特币储备也有所增加，进一步增强了其可信度。

As the market increasingly focuses on security and transparency, the rising reserves of specific exchanges may indicate their robustness and capacity to safeguard user funds.

随着市场越来越注重安全性和透明度，特定交易所的储备金不断增加可能表明其稳健性和保护用户资金的能力。

Key Levels to Monitor for Bitcoin Price Movements

监控比特币价格走势的关键水平

Two key price levels, $69,870 and $72,380, have surfaced as pivotal points with a significant concentration of trading contracts. These levels may act as strong support or resistance, as traders frequently close their positions at these psychological “breakeven” points.

两个关键价格水平，69,870 美元和 72,380 美元，已成为交易合约高度集中的关键点。这些水平可能充当强大的支撑或阻力，因为交易者经常在这些心理“盈亏平衡”点平仓。

Keeping an eye on these levels is crucial for evaluating Bitcoin’s short-term price movements, as they could trigger volatility when BTC nears them.

密切关注这些水平对于评估比特币的短期价格走势至关重要，因为当比特币接近这些水平时，它们可能会引发波动。

Following a recent correction, Bitcoin price has stabilized above $69,000, converting what was once resistance into a new support level. The current price structure appears to form a double-bottom W pattern, which is a bullish signal indicating a potential breakout.

经过最近的调整，比特币价格已稳定在 69,000 美元以上，将曾经的阻力位转变为新的支撑位。当前的价格结构似乎形成了双底 W 形态，这是表明潜在突破的看涨信号。

Moreover, the UTXO P/L Count Ratio Model indicates there may still be potential for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high before any possible peak.

此外，UTXO 盈亏计数比率模型表明，比特币仍有可能在任何可能的峰值之前达到新的历史高点。

However, as Bitcoin’s volatility is anticipated around these psychological price levels, investors should closely monitor BTC’s movements, as this could pave the way for a significant breakout in the upcoming weeks.

然而，由于比特币的波动预计围绕这些心理价格水平，投资者应密切关注比特币的走势，因为这可能为未来几周的重大突破铺平道路。

Bitcoin to Move 10% Depending on US Election

比特币将根据美国大选波动 10%

In a November 4 post, pseudonymous trader Daan Crypto Trades shared with his 389,000 X followers that Bitcoin’s weekly close didn’t appear particularly strong, but this may not be a significant concern given the upcoming election.

在 11 月 4 日的帖子中，匿名交易员 Daan Crypto Trades 与他的 389,000 X 关注者分享称，比特币的每周收盘价似乎并不是特别强劲，但考虑到即将到来的选举，这可能不是一个重大问题。

He noted that there’s a strong likelihood Bitcoin could experience “at least a 10% move in either direction” based on the election outcome. Currently, Bitcoin price is trading at $68,781, reflecting a 0.10% increase

他指出，根据选举结果，比特币很可能会经历“至少 10% 的双向波动”。目前，比特币价格为 68,781 美元，上涨 0.10%