比特幣 (BTC) 價格可能飆升 10%，具體取決於美國大選結果，以下是值得關注的關鍵水平

最近的比特幣價格波動引起了分析師的極大興趣，許多分析師利用 UTXO 損益 (P/L) 比率模型來識別潛在的價格高峰。

As the United States prepares for the final results of the presidential election on Tuesday, November 5th, 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) volatility has reached its highest level in three months. This heightened volatility is expected to continue on election day, with some analysts speculating on how candidate sentiment could influence the market.

隨著美國為 2024 年 11 月 5 日星期二的總統選舉最終結果做準備，比特幣 (BTC) 波動性已達到三個月來的最高水平。這種劇烈的波動預計將在選舉日繼續下去，一些分析師猜測候選人情緒將如何影響市場。

Recent Bitcoin price fluctuations have drawn attention from analysts, who are closely monitoring its potential highs using the UTXO Profit/Loss (P/L) Ratio Model. This model has become essential as it reveals trends in profitability and loss ratios, often indicating critical price cycles and possible reversals.

最近的比特幣價格波動引起了分析師的關注，他們正在使用 UTXO 盈虧 (P/L) 比率模型密切監控其潛在高點。該模型變得至關重要，因為它揭示了盈利率和損失率的趨勢，通常表明關鍵的價格週期和可能的逆轉。

By analyzing moving averages across various timeframes, including short (7 days), medium (30 days), and long-term (365 days), analysts can better assess Bitcoin’s market health and dynamics.

透過分析不同時間範圍（包括短期（7 天）、中期（30 天）和長期（365 天））的移動平均線，分析師可以更好地評估比特幣的市場健康狀況和動態。

Interestingly, historical data highlighted by white squares on the chart reflects patterns similar to those observed today. This metric suggests that Bitcoin price may be approaching a new peak in the near future.

有趣的是，圖表上白色方塊突出顯示的歷史數據反映了與今天觀察到的類似的模式。該指標表明比特幣價格可能在不久的將來接近新的高峰。

The UTXO P/L Ratio offers insights into the balance between Bitcoin holders who are in profit versus those who are at a loss, often indicating potential price reversals.

UTXO 盈虧比可以洞察盈利的比特幣持有者與虧損的比特幣持有者之間的平衡，通常表明潛在的價格逆轉。

When the 30-day P/L ratio rises above the 365-day moving average, it typically signals a possible price increase.

當 30 天盈虧比升至 365 天移動平均線之上時，通常預示著價格可能會上漲。

Historically, when the 30-day average has surpassed the annual average, it has often coincided with price surges.

從歷史上看，當30天平均值超過年平均值時，往往與價格飆升同時發生。

This pattern, combined with a decrease in profitability ratios, underscores the importance of short- and medium-term trading strategies.

這種模式，加上獲利率的下降，凸顯了中短期交易策略的重要性。

It suggests that if the annual profit average continues to act as a resistance level, Bitcoin price could be poised for new highs, potentially exceeding its recent peaks.

這表明，如果年平均利潤繼續充當阻力位，比特幣價格可能會創下新高，有可能超過近期的峰值。

The State of Exchange Proof of Reserves Post-FTX Collapse

FTX 崩潰後的交易所狀態儲備證明

With the two-year anniversary of FTX’s collapse on November 6, 2024, the significance of Proof-of-Reserves (PoR) among cryptocurrency exchanges is more relevant than ever.

2024 年 11 月 6 日是 FTX 倒閉兩週年紀念日，準備金證明 (PoR) 在加密貨幣交易所中的重要性比以往任何時候都更加重要。

The downfall of FTX, one of the most notable failures in the crypto industry, highlighted the risks associated with insufficient reserves. This incident emphasized the necessity for exchanges to publicly verify their assets to ensure users feel confident about the safety of their funds.

FTX 的垮台是加密貨幣產業最顯著的失敗之一，凸顯了與準備金不足相關的風險。這一事件強調了交易所公開驗證其資產的必要性，以確保用戶對其資金安全充滿信心。

Today, most leading exchanges offer PoR reports, although the degree of transparency among them can differ significantly.

如今，大多數領先的交易所都提供 PoR 報告，儘管它們之間的透明度可能存在很大差異。

For example, Binance’s Proof-of-Reserves allows public access to on-chain addresses, enabling users to independently verify their asset holdings.

例如，幣安的儲備證明允許公眾存取鏈上地址，使用戶能夠獨立驗證其資產持有量。

This approach fosters trust among market participants by enhancing transparency regarding asset movements.

這種方法透過提高資產流動的透明度來培養市場參與者之間的信任。

Despite facing regulatory challenges in the U.S., Binance has remained stable, increasing its Bitcoin reserves by 28,000 BTC, or 5%, to a total of 611,000 BTC.

儘管面臨美國的監管挑戰，幣安仍保持穩定，將其比特幣儲備增加了 28,000 BTC，即 5%，達到 611,000 BTC。

This consistent growth since the collapse of FTX underscores Binance’s resilience, with reserve withdrawals consistently kept below 16%.

自 FTX 崩潰以來的持續增長突顯了幣安的韌性，準備金提款率始終保持在 16% 以下。

In contrast, Coinbase stands out among major exchanges as it has not yet published a public PoR report. Meanwhile, Bitfinex has also seen a rise in its Bitcoin reserves, further bolstering its credibility.

相比之下，Coinbase 在各大交易所中脫穎而出，因為它尚未發佈公開的 PoR 報告。同時，Bitfinex 的比特幣儲備也有所增加，進一步增強了其可信度。

As the market increasingly focuses on security and transparency, the rising reserves of specific exchanges may indicate their robustness and capacity to safeguard user funds.

隨著市場越來越注重安全性和透明度，特定交易所的儲備金不斷增加可能表明其穩健性和保護用戶資金的能力。

Key Levels to Monitor for Bitcoin Price Movements

監控比特幣價格走勢的關鍵水平

Two key price levels, $69,870 and $72,380, have surfaced as pivotal points with a significant concentration of trading contracts. These levels may act as strong support or resistance, as traders frequently close their positions at these psychological “breakeven” points.

兩個關鍵價格水平，69,870 美元和 72,380 美元，已成為交易合約高度集中的關鍵點。這些水平可能充當強大的支撐或阻力，因為交易者經常在這些心理「盈虧平衡」點平倉。

Keeping an eye on these levels is crucial for evaluating Bitcoin’s short-term price movements, as they could trigger volatility when BTC nears them.

密切關注這些水平對於評估比特幣的短期價格走勢至關重要，因為當比特幣接近這些水平時，它們可能會引發波動。

Following a recent correction, Bitcoin price has stabilized above $69,000, converting what was once resistance into a new support level. The current price structure appears to form a double-bottom W pattern, which is a bullish signal indicating a potential breakout.

經過最近的調整，比特幣價格已穩定在 69,000 美元以上，將曾經的阻力位轉變為新的支撐位。目前的價格結構似乎形成了雙底 W 形態，這是表明潛在突破的看漲訊號。

Moreover, the UTXO P/L Count Ratio Model indicates there may still be potential for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high before any possible peak.

此外，UTXO 盈虧計數比率模型表明，比特幣仍有可能在任何可能的峰值之前達到新的歷史高點。

However, as Bitcoin’s volatility is anticipated around these psychological price levels, investors should closely monitor BTC’s movements, as this could pave the way for a significant breakout in the upcoming weeks.

然而，由於比特幣的波動預計將圍繞這些心理價格水平，投資者應密切關注比特幣的走勢，因為這可能為未來幾週的重大突破鋪平道路。

Bitcoin to Move 10% Depending on US Election

比特幣將根據美國大選波動 10%

In a November 4 post, pseudonymous trader Daan Crypto Trades shared with his 389,000 X followers that Bitcoin’s weekly close didn’t appear particularly strong, but this may not be a significant concern given the upcoming election.

在11 月4 日的帖子中，匿名交易員Daan Crypto Trades 與他的389,000 X 追隨者分享稱，比特幣的每週收盤價似乎並不是特別強勁，但考慮到即將到來的選舉，這可能不是一個重大問題。

He noted that there’s a strong likelihood Bitcoin could experience “at least a 10% move in either direction” based on the election outcome. Currently, Bitcoin price is trading at $68,781, reflecting a 0.10% increase

他指出，根據選舉結果，比特幣很可能會經歷「至少 10% 的雙向波動」。目前，比特幣價格為 68,781 美元，上漲 0.10%