比特币（BTC）价格篮板

最近几天，比特币经历了多次篮板，增加了一系列短期恢复，使其普遍向下移动。

Bitcoin has experienced several price rebounds in recent days, adding to a series of short-term recoveries that have punctuated the cryptocurrency’s general downward movement over the past few months.

比特币最近几天经历了几次篮板，增加了一系列短期恢复，这些回收率使加密货币在过去几个月中的总体下行运动刺激了。

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports that each of Bitcoin’s recent price lows has coincided with the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio dipping below 1, indicating that loss-taking has been more prevalent than profit-taking.

链上分析公司GlassNode报告说，比特币最近的价格低点都与已实现的利润/损失率降至1以下相吻合，这表明造成损失的损失比获利的损失更为普遍。

These periods of loss realization tend to mark seller exhaustion, when downside momentum fades as sell-side pressure is absorbed by the market. This pattern has helped Bitcoin find temporary support levels.

当下行势头逐渐消失，因为市场被市场吸收时，这些损失的时期往往会标志着卖方的疲惫。这种模式帮助比特币找到了临时支持水平。

Each instance of increased loss realization has been followed by a price rebound for the cryptocurrency.

损失实现的每一个实例之后，加密货币的价格反弹。

However, these recoveries have not yet developed into sustained upward momentum. The question remains whether these bounces represent the start of a bullish trend or merely temporary relief in a continuing downward movement.

但是，这些回收率尚未发展为持续的向上势头。问题是这些弹跳是看涨趋势的开始还是仅仅是持续下降的运动中的暂时缓解。

Longer Timeframes Show Persistent Bearish Trend

更长的时间范围显示持续的看跌趋势

Looking at longer timeframes, Glassnode notes that the 90-day Simple Moving Average of the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has been declining sharply, despite the brief instances of increased profit realization.

查看较长的时间范围，玻璃节指出，尽管实现利润增加了，但实现利润率的90天简单移动平均值仍在急剧下降。

The brief surges in profit-taking have not been sufficient to reverse the broader downtrend. This suggests that the overall market picture continues to be characterized by weaker liquidity and deteriorating investor profitability.

利润获利的短暂浪潮不足以扭转更广泛的下降趋势。这表明，整体市场情况继续以较弱的流动性和恶化的投资者盈利能力为特征。

From the perspective of this key indicator, Bitcoin’s recent price rebounds do not yet signal a shift toward bullish momentum in the larger market context.

从这个关键指标的角度来看，比特币最近的价格篮板尚未表明在更大的市场环境中向看涨势头转变。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $83,600, showing a decline of almost 2% over the past seven days.

在撰写本文时，比特币的交易价格约为83,600美元，在过去的七天中显示近2％。

Potential For One Final Push Upward

最终推高的潜力

Despite current bearish signals, some analysts see the potential for one more upward price movement before this market cycle concludes.

尽管目前的看跌信号，但一些分析师仍会在这个市场周期结束之前再次向上价格转移。

In a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, contributor Crypto Dan analyzed the ratio of Bitcoin volume traded over six to twelve-month periods. This metric reflects new capital entering the crypto market and has historically shown strong correlation with market cycles.

在最近的加密快速帖子中，贡献者Crypto Dan分析了超过6到12个月的比特币量的比率。该度量标准反映了进入加密市场的新资本，并历史上表现出与市场周期的密切相关性。

According to Crypto Dan, this ratio typically declines twice during a market cycle. The first decline marks the end of the early bull phase, while the second, lower decline signals the end of the entire bull cycle.

根据加密货币Dan的说法，该比率通常在市场周期中下降了两倍。第一个下降标志着早期公牛阶段的终结，而第二个下降标志着整个牛周期的终结。

Bitcoin hit a critical midpoint in March 2024 when this volume ratio experienced its first notable decline, consistent with patterns observed in previous market cycles.

比特币在2024年3月的临界中点达到了关键的中点，当时该体积比首次显着下降，这与以前的市场周期中观察到的模式一致。

The ratio now appears to be entering its second and final dip, which could potentially lead Bitcoin toward this cycle’s ultimate peak before a more significant correction.

现在，该比率似乎正在进入其第二个也是最后一个也是最终的倾角，这可能会导致比特币在更明显的校正之前朝着该周期的最终峰值降低。

This pattern suggests that despite the recent pullback of more than 23% from January’s all-time high of $108,786, Bitcoin may still have room for one final surge upward.

这种模式表明，尽管最近的回调比一月份的108,786美元的历史最高点占23％，但比特币仍有空间可以进行一次上升的空间。

Multiple indicators point toward Bitcoin holders viewing the current market correction as temporary rather than the start of a more prolonged bear market.

多个指标指出，比特币持有人将当前的市场校正视为暂时的校正，而不是更长的熊市的开始。

Recent analysis revealed that short-term Bitcoin holders are continuing to hold their coins despite being in a loss position. This behavior suggests they anticipate an upcoming bullish reversal.

最近的分析表明，尽管处于损失位置，但短期比特币持有人仍在继续保持硬币。这种行为表明他们预计即将来临的看涨逆转。

Additionally, exchange net flow data indicates reduced selling pressure, potentially setting the stage for a price recovery.

此外，交换净流数据表明销售压力降低，有可能为价格恢复奠定基础。

Bitcoin’s resilience has been noted by various market observers, including Max Keiser, who currently serves as a cryptocurrency advisor to the Bukele Administration.

许多市场观察家（包括Max Keizer）指出了比特币的韧性，后者目前是布克勒政府的加密货币顾问。

Trump has triggered the ‘Global Reset’

特朗普触发了“全球重置”

The era of globalization was a deflationary period where US workers traded jobs for very cheap consumer goods manufactured in Asia.

全球化的时代是一个通缩时期，美国工人将工作交易为在亚洲生产的非常便宜的消费品。

The quality of life was not too noticeably impacted.

生活质量的影响不大。

The people who fell off the grid were ignored or…— Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) April 3, 2025

从网格上掉下的人被忽略或… - 2025年4月3日Max Keizer（@maxkeiser）

Keiser has commented on Bitcoin’s strength in the face of new tariff-based trade policies enacted by President Trump. He suggested that even with potential economic changes, Bitcoin remains positioned as a hedge against inflation.

Keizer面对特朗普总统制定的新的基于关税的贸易政策，对比特币的实力发表了评论。他建议，即使有潜在的经济变化，比特币仍然定位为抵制通货膨胀的对冲。

According to Keiser, even if higher income and quality jobs materialize from policy changes,

根据Keizer的说法，即使收入和高质量的工作从政策变化中实现，

“the overall inflation rate will jump even higher so the quality of life will not materially improve.”

“总体通货膨胀率将提高甚至更高，因此生活质量不会实质性改善。”