比特幣（BTC）價格籃板

最近幾天，比特幣經歷了多次籃板，增加了一系列短期恢復，使其普遍向下移動。

Bitcoin has experienced several price rebounds in recent days, adding to a series of short-term recoveries that have punctuated the cryptocurrency’s general downward movement over the past few months.

比特幣最近幾天經歷了幾次籃板，增加了一系列短期恢復，這些回收率使加密貨幣在過去幾個月中的總體下行運動刺激了。

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports that each of Bitcoin’s recent price lows has coincided with the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio dipping below 1, indicating that loss-taking has been more prevalent than profit-taking.

鏈上分析公司GlassNode報告說，比特幣最近的價格低點都與已實現的利潤/損失率降至1以下相吻合，這表明造成損失的損失比獲利的損失更為普遍。

These periods of loss realization tend to mark seller exhaustion, when downside momentum fades as sell-side pressure is absorbed by the market. This pattern has helped Bitcoin find temporary support levels.

當下行勢頭逐漸消失，因為市場被市場吸收時，這些損失的時期往往會標誌著賣方的疲憊。這種模式幫助比特幣找到了臨時支持水平。

Each instance of increased loss realization has been followed by a price rebound for the cryptocurrency.

損失實現的每一個實例之後，加密貨幣的價格反彈。

However, these recoveries have not yet developed into sustained upward momentum. The question remains whether these bounces represent the start of a bullish trend or merely temporary relief in a continuing downward movement.

但是，這些回收率尚未發展為持續的向上勢頭。問題是這些彈跳是看漲趨勢的開始還是僅僅是持續下降的運動中的暫時緩解。

Longer Timeframes Show Persistent Bearish Trend

更長的時間範圍顯示持續的看跌趨勢

Looking at longer timeframes, Glassnode notes that the 90-day Simple Moving Average of the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has been declining sharply, despite the brief instances of increased profit realization.

查看較長的時間範圍，玻璃節指出，儘管實現利潤增加了，但實現利潤率的90天簡單移動平均值仍在急劇下降。

The brief surges in profit-taking have not been sufficient to reverse the broader downtrend. This suggests that the overall market picture continues to be characterized by weaker liquidity and deteriorating investor profitability.

利潤獲利的短暫浪潮不足以扭轉更廣泛的下降趨勢。這表明，整體市場情況繼續以較弱的流動性和惡化的投資者盈利能力為特徵。

From the perspective of this key indicator, Bitcoin’s recent price rebounds do not yet signal a shift toward bullish momentum in the larger market context.

從這個關鍵指標的角度來看，比特幣最近的價格籃板尚未表明在更大的市場環境中向看漲勢頭轉變。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $83,600, showing a decline of almost 2% over the past seven days.

在撰寫本文時，比特幣的交易價格約為83,600美元，在過去的七天中顯示近2％。

Potential For One Final Push Upward

最終推高的潛力

Despite current bearish signals, some analysts see the potential for one more upward price movement before this market cycle concludes.

儘管目前的看跌信號，但一些分析師仍會在這個市場週期結束之前再次向上價格轉移。

In a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, contributor Crypto Dan analyzed the ratio of Bitcoin volume traded over six to twelve-month periods. This metric reflects new capital entering the crypto market and has historically shown strong correlation with market cycles.

在最近的加密快速帖子中，貢獻者Crypto Dan分析了超過6到12個月的比特幣量的比率。該度量標準反映了進入加密市場的新資本，並歷史上表現出與市場週期的密切相關性。

According to Crypto Dan, this ratio typically declines twice during a market cycle. The first decline marks the end of the early bull phase, while the second, lower decline signals the end of the entire bull cycle.

根據加密貨幣Dan的說法，該比率通常在市場週期中下降了兩倍。第一個下降標誌著早期公牛階段的終結，而第二個下降標誌著整個牛週期的終結。

Bitcoin hit a critical midpoint in March 2024 when this volume ratio experienced its first notable decline, consistent with patterns observed in previous market cycles.

比特幣在2024年3月的臨界中點達到了關鍵的中點，當時該體積比首次顯著下降，這與以前的市場週期中觀察到的模式一致。

The ratio now appears to be entering its second and final dip, which could potentially lead Bitcoin toward this cycle’s ultimate peak before a more significant correction.

現在，該比率似乎正在進入其第二個也是最後一個也是最終的傾角，這可能會導致比特幣在更明顯的校正之前朝著該週期的最終峰值降低。

This pattern suggests that despite the recent pullback of more than 23% from January’s all-time high of $108,786, Bitcoin may still have room for one final surge upward.

這種模式表明，儘管最近的回調比一月份的108,786美元的歷史最高點佔23％，但比特幣仍有空間可以進行一次上升的空間。

Multiple indicators point toward Bitcoin holders viewing the current market correction as temporary rather than the start of a more prolonged bear market.

多個指標指出，比特幣持有人將當前的市場校正視為暫時的校正，而不是更長的熊市的開始。

Recent analysis revealed that short-term Bitcoin holders are continuing to hold their coins despite being in a loss position. This behavior suggests they anticipate an upcoming bullish reversal.

最近的分析表明，儘管處於損失位置，但短期比特幣持有人仍在繼續保持硬幣。這種行為表明他們預計即將來臨的看漲逆轉。

Additionally, exchange net flow data indicates reduced selling pressure, potentially setting the stage for a price recovery.

此外，交換淨流數據表明銷售壓力降低，有可能為價格恢復奠定基礎。

Bitcoin’s resilience has been noted by various market observers, including Max Keiser, who currently serves as a cryptocurrency advisor to the Bukele Administration.

許多市場觀察家（包括Max Keizer）指出了比特幣的韌性，後者目前是布克勒政府的加密貨幣顧問。

Trump has triggered the ‘Global Reset’

特朗普觸發了“全球重置”

The era of globalization was a deflationary period where US workers traded jobs for very cheap consumer goods manufactured in Asia.

全球化的時代是一個通縮時期，美國工人將工作交易為在亞洲生產的非常便宜的消費品。

The quality of life was not too noticeably impacted.

生活質量的影響不大。

The people who fell off the grid were ignored or…— Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) April 3, 2025

從網格上掉下的人被忽略或… - 2025年4月3日Max Keizer（@maxkeiser）

Keiser has commented on Bitcoin’s strength in the face of new tariff-based trade policies enacted by President Trump. He suggested that even with potential economic changes, Bitcoin remains positioned as a hedge against inflation.

Keizer面對特朗普總統制定的新的基於關稅的貿易政策，對比特幣的實力發表了評論。他建議，即使有潛在的經濟變化，比特幣仍然定位為抵制通貨膨脹的對沖。

According to Keiser, even if higher income and quality jobs materialize from policy changes,

根據Keizer的說法，即使收入和高質量的工作從政策變化中實現，

“the overall inflation rate will jump even higher so the quality of life will not materially improve.”

“總體通貨膨脹率將提高甚至更高，因此生活質量不會實質性改善。”