比特币（BTC）价格预测2025–2026：它可以承受压力吗？

不到二十天的时间，特朗普的大胆政策已经在摇晃加密货币市场，从而消除了其价值的8.29％。虽然市场已经耸了耸肩

Less than three weeks into office, Trump’s bold policies are already shaking the crypto market, erasing 8.29% of its value. While the market has so far shrugged off a rate hike, the real question is – how long can it hold?

不到三周的时间，特朗普的大胆政策已经在摇晃加密货币市场，从而消除了其价值的8.29％。虽然到目前为止，虽然市场越来越大，但真正的问题是 - 它可以持续多长时间？

It’s shaping up to be a defining year – 2025 will put Bitcoin’s “safe haven” status to the ultimate test.

它正在成为一个决定性的一年 - 2025年将将比特币的“避风港”地位带入最终测试。

The rising pressure on risk assets

风险资产的压力上升

The U.S.-China trade war may not be new, but its impact is hitting hard. Analysts predicted this economic shift long before Trump took office, and now it’s clear.

美国 - 中国贸易战可能并不是什么新鲜事物，但其影响却很难。分析师在特朗普上任之前很久就预测了这种经济转变，现在很明显。

Bitcoin has lost over 6% of its market share, wiping trillions of dollars in the process. Stakeholders are now playing it safe. How?

比特币损失了其市场份额的6％以上，在此过程中削减了数万亿美元。利益相关者现在正在安全地发挥作用。如何？

Gold (XAU) has surged over 3% weekly, reaching a new all-time high of over $2,880 per ounce.

Gold（XAU）每周飙升3％以上，每盎司的新历史最高高度超过2,880美元。

Source: TradingView (XAU/USD)

资料来源：TradingView（XAU/USD）

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index has followed suit, soaring above 109. The 10% tariff on Chinese imports has inflated the index, as fears of an interest rate hike push investors into bonds for safer returns.

同时，美元指数效仿了109以上的飙升。中国进口的10％关税已经夸大了该指数，因为人们担心加息将投资者推向债券以获得更安全的回报。

Despite a “lower-than-expected” U.S. inflation report that kept the Fed from raising rates, rising import costs from Canada, Mexico, and China could push inflation up. This may keep the Fed from cutting rates anytime soon.

尽管美国的通货膨胀报告“低于预期”，这使美联储无法提高利率，但加拿大，墨西哥和中国的进口成本上升可能会推动通货膨胀率上升。这可能会使美联储很快降低税率。

With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January just days away, all eyes are on it. An uptick in CPI could spark another market-wide shock, potentially sending Bitcoin tumbling below $90K.

随着消费者价格指数（CPI）的一月份报告仅几天，所有人都注视着它。 CPI的上升可能会引起另一个全市场的冲击，可能会使比特币低于$ 90K。

Is Bitcoin ready to withstand the pressure?

比特币准备承受压力了吗？

Remember Trump’s first term as President? The U.S.-China trade war ramped up significantly, and his “Make in America” campaign only gathered more steam.

还记得特朗普担任总统的第一个任期吗？美国 - 中国贸易战争大大增加了，他的“美国制造”运动只会收集更多的动力。

In 2018, when Trump started slashing taxes on Chinese goods, Bitcoin took a major hit, dropping 72% and closing the year at $3,740. 

2018年，当特朗普开始对中国商品征税时，比特币受到了重大打击，下降了72％，并以3,740美元的价格收盘。

Source: BitBo

来源：Bitbo

But there’s a bright spot: U.S. imports from China have dropped by 8 percentage points since then, now making up just 13.5% of total imports.

但是有一个亮点：从那以后，美国进口量下降了8个百分点，现在仅占总进口的13.5％。

On top of that, Bitcoin’s status as a “safe haven” has steadily gained momentum over the past seven years.

最重要的是，在过去的七年中，比特币作为“避风港”的地位稳步增长。

So, while Bitcoin still trails behind Gold in both market cap and investor trust, a double-digit loss seems unlikely at this stage. Even without a rate cut to break resistance, institutional capital is poised to absorb the pressure.

因此，尽管比特币仍然落后于市值和投资者信托的黄金，但在这个阶段似乎不太可能。即使没有降低阻力的速度，机构资本也有望吸收压力。

However, the “risk” of investing in crypto assets has significantly increased, making an interest rate hike a major deal-breaker for high-caps.

但是，投资加密资产的“风险”已大大增加，这使得加息成为高额股的重大交易。

With so much on the line, monitoring the U.S. economic calendar is more crucial than ever.

随着这么多的影响，监视美国的经济日历比以往任何时候都更为重要。