比特幣（BTC）價格預測2025–2026：它可以承受壓力嗎？

不到二十天的時間，特朗普的大膽政策已經在搖晃加密貨幣市場，從而消除了其價值的8.29％。雖然市場已經聳了聳肩

Less than three weeks into office, Trump’s bold policies are already shaking the crypto market, erasing 8.29% of its value. While the market has so far shrugged off a rate hike, the real question is – how long can it hold?

不到三週的時間，特朗普的大膽政策已經在搖晃加密貨幣市場，從而消除了其價值的8.29％。雖然到目前為止，雖然市場越來越大，但真正的問題是 - 它可以持續多長時間？

It’s shaping up to be a defining year – 2025 will put Bitcoin’s “safe haven” status to the ultimate test.

它正在成為一個決定性的一年 - 2025年將將比特幣的“避風港”地位帶入最終測試。

The rising pressure on risk assets

風險資產的壓力上升

The U.S.-China trade war may not be new, but its impact is hitting hard. Analysts predicted this economic shift long before Trump took office, and now it’s clear.

美國 - 中國貿易戰可能並不是什麼新鮮事物，但其影響卻很難。分析師在特朗普上任之前很久就預測了這種經濟轉變，現在很明顯。

Bitcoin has lost over 6% of its market share, wiping trillions of dollars in the process. Stakeholders are now playing it safe. How?

比特幣損失了其市場份額的6％以上，在此過程中削減了數万億美元。利益相關者現在正在安全地發揮作用。如何？

Gold (XAU) has surged over 3% weekly, reaching a new all-time high of over $2,880 per ounce.

Gold（XAU）每週飆升3％以上，每盎司的新歷史最高高度超過2,880美元。

Source: TradingView (XAU/USD)

資料來源：TradingView（XAU/USD）

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index has followed suit, soaring above 109. The 10% tariff on Chinese imports has inflated the index, as fears of an interest rate hike push investors into bonds for safer returns.

同時，美元指數效仿了109以上的飆升。中國進口的10％關稅已經誇大了該指數，因為人們擔心加息將投資者推向債券以獲得更安全的回報。

Despite a “lower-than-expected” U.S. inflation report that kept the Fed from raising rates, rising import costs from Canada, Mexico, and China could push inflation up. This may keep the Fed from cutting rates anytime soon.

儘管美國的通貨膨脹報告“低於預期”，這使美聯儲無法提高利率，但加拿大，墨西哥和中國的進口成本上升可能會推動通貨膨脹率上升。這可能會使美聯儲很快降低稅率。

With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January just days away, all eyes are on it. An uptick in CPI could spark another market-wide shock, potentially sending Bitcoin tumbling below $90K.

隨著消費者價格指數（CPI）的一月份報告僅幾天，所有人都注視著它。 CPI的上升可能會引起另一個全市場的衝擊，可能會使比特幣低於$ 90K。

Is Bitcoin ready to withstand the pressure?

比特幣準備承受壓力了嗎？

Remember Trump’s first term as President? The U.S.-China trade war ramped up significantly, and his “Make in America” campaign only gathered more steam.

還記得特朗普擔任總統的第一個任期嗎？美國 - 中國貿易戰爭大大增加了，他的“美國製造”運動只會收集更多的動力。

In 2018, when Trump started slashing taxes on Chinese goods, Bitcoin took a major hit, dropping 72% and closing the year at $3,740. 

2018年，當特朗普開始對中國商品徵稅時，比特幣受到了重大打擊，下降了72％，並以3,740美元的價格收盤。

Source: BitBo

來源：Bitbo

But there’s a bright spot: U.S. imports from China have dropped by 8 percentage points since then, now making up just 13.5% of total imports.

但是有一個亮點：從那以後，美國進口量下降了8個百分點，現在僅佔總進口的13.5％。

On top of that, Bitcoin’s status as a “safe haven” has steadily gained momentum over the past seven years.

最重要的是，在過去的七年中，比特幣作為“避風港”的地位穩步增長。

So, while Bitcoin still trails behind Gold in both market cap and investor trust, a double-digit loss seems unlikely at this stage. Even without a rate cut to break resistance, institutional capital is poised to absorb the pressure.

因此，儘管比特幣仍然落後於市值和投資者信託的黃金，但在這個階段似乎不太可能。即使沒有降低阻力的速度，機構資本也有望吸收壓力。

However, the “risk” of investing in crypto assets has significantly increased, making an interest rate hike a major deal-breaker for high-caps.

但是，投資加密資產的“風險”已大大增加，這使得加息成為高額股的重大交易。

With so much on the line, monitoring the U.S. economic calendar is more crucial than ever.

隨著這麼多的影響，監視美國的經濟日曆比以往任何時候都更為重要。