比特币（BTC）价格预测：以2025年复活节为目标100,00美元以上的新历史最高点

比特币（BTC）在2025年（第1季度）的2024年晚些时候的看涨期望不足。

Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Gemma 3 model predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will trade in the range of $85,000 and $150,000 by Easter 2025. The model, which is almost as advanced as DeepMind's DeepDream despite running on a single GPU, has analyzed Bitcoin's position and set a price target for the cryptocurrency.

Alphabet's（NASDAQ：GOOGL）GEMMA 3模型预测，到2025年复活节到2025年，比特币（BTC）将在85,000美元和150,000美元之间进行交易。该型号尽管在单个GPU上运行，但该模型几乎与DeepMind的Deepdream一样先进，但它已经分析了比特币的位置并设定了Cryptocococorenty的价格。

According to Gemma 3, the lower price target of $85,000 is possible if there are setbacks and a slower-than-expected adoption rate. It is also a reasonable floor given the historical post-halving performance of Bitcoin, which usually sees substantial price appreciation in the year following a halving. The full impact of the supply shock created by the halving tends to be seen only months after the event, and we will be well into that cycle by Easter 2025.

根据Gemma 3的数据，如果有挫折和较慢的采用率，则可能的较低目标价为85,000美元。鉴于比特币的历史后表现，这也是一个合理的地板，通常在减半后的一年中看到了大量的价格升值。减半造成的供应冲击的全部影响往往只有几个月后，我们将在2025年复活节之前进入该周期。

On the other hand, the higher price target of $150,000 is achievable if the bullish factors, such as continued exchange-traded fund (ETF) growth and adoption, technological advancements and layer-2 solutions, and institutional adoption, remain dominant. It also factors in the potential for a significant macroeconomic tailwind, such as inflation being contained and interest rates being lowered, to drive Bitcoin prices upward.

另一方面，如果看涨的因素（例如持续的交易所交易基金（ETF）增长和采用，技术进步和第二层解决方案以及机构采用）仍然占主导地位，则可以实现15万美元的价格目标。这也因可能导致宏观经济的大力偏向的潜力，例如含有通货膨胀和降低利率，以使比特币价格上涨。

The model also notes that regulatory clarity will be a key factor in determining Bitcoin's price trajectory. It is hoping that the macroeconomic climate will cooperate, and that the external shocks that have battered markets throughout 2024 will subside by Easter. These external shocks, which include the Iranian missile attack on Israel, heightened inflation, weak job reports, and the escalation of the trade war, have done much to damage the ‘digital gold’ narrative.

该模型还指出，监管清晰度将是确定比特币价格轨迹的关键因素。希望宏观经济气候能够合作，并且在2024年遭受殴打市场的外部冲击将在复活节前消失。这些外部冲击包括对以色列的伊朗导弹袭击，通货膨胀率提高，工作报告疲软以及贸易战争的升级，已经为损害了“数字黄金”的叙述做出了很大的损害。

However, Bitcoin has shown resilience and recovered from lows hit earlier in 2024, and it is still trading at relatively high levels compared to the broader market. This suggests that the bearish factors, such as a sudden and harsh regulatory crackdown against the industry, competition from the other cryptocurrencies, security breaches, or a greater economic recession, may not be as dominant as the bullish factors.

但是，比特币表现出弹性，并从2024年前早些时候的低点中恢复过来，与更广泛的市场相比，它的交易水平仍然相对较高。这表明看跌因素，例如针对该行业的突然而严厉的监管镇压，其他加密货币的竞争，安全漏洞或更大的经济衰退可能并不像看涨的因素那样占主导地位。

Ultimately, Gemma 3's predictions are just that: predictions. It remains to be seen where Bitcoin will actually be trading by Easter 2025. However, the model's analysis provides some valuable insights into the factors that could influence Bitcoin's price in the coming year. It will be interesting to see if the model's predictions are accurate, or if Bitcoin has some "higher-highs, higher-lows" action in store.

最终，Gemma 3的预测就是这样：预测。到2025年复活节之前，比特币实际上将在哪里进行交易还有待观察。但是，该模型的分析提供了一些有价值的见解，以了解可能影响来年比特币价格的因素。看看模型的预测是否准确，或者比特币是否在存储中具有一些“更高的高低”动作，这将很有趣。