比特幣（BTC）價格預測：以2025年復活節為目標100,00美元以上的新歷史最高點

比特幣（BTC）在2025年（第1季度）的2024年晚些時候的看漲期望不足。

Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Gemma 3 model predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will trade in the range of $85,000 and $150,000 by Easter 2025. The model, which is almost as advanced as DeepMind's DeepDream despite running on a single GPU, has analyzed Bitcoin's position and set a price target for the cryptocurrency.

Alphabet's（NASDAQ：GOOGL）GEMMA 3模型預測，到2025年復活節到2025年，比特幣（BTC）將在85,000美元和150,000美元之間進行交易。該型號儘管在單個GPU上運行，但該模型幾乎與DeepMind的Deepdream一樣先進，但它已經分析了比特幣的位置並設定了Cryptocococorenty的價格。

According to Gemma 3, the lower price target of $85,000 is possible if there are setbacks and a slower-than-expected adoption rate. It is also a reasonable floor given the historical post-halving performance of Bitcoin, which usually sees substantial price appreciation in the year following a halving. The full impact of the supply shock created by the halving tends to be seen only months after the event, and we will be well into that cycle by Easter 2025.

根據Gemma 3的數據，如果有挫折和較慢的採用率，則可能的較低目標價為85,000美元。鑑於比特幣的歷史後表現，這也是一個合理的地板，通常在減半後的一年中看到了大量的價格升值。減半造成的供應衝擊的全部影響往往只有幾個月後，我們將在2025年復活節之前進入該週期。

On the other hand, the higher price target of $150,000 is achievable if the bullish factors, such as continued exchange-traded fund (ETF) growth and adoption, technological advancements and layer-2 solutions, and institutional adoption, remain dominant. It also factors in the potential for a significant macroeconomic tailwind, such as inflation being contained and interest rates being lowered, to drive Bitcoin prices upward.

另一方面，如果看漲的因素（例如持續的交易所交易基金（ETF）增長和採用，技術進步和第二層解決方案以及機構採用）仍然占主導地位，則可以實現15萬美元的價格目標。這也因可能導致宏觀經濟的大力偏向的潛力，例如含有通貨膨脹和降低利率，以使比特幣價格上漲。

The model also notes that regulatory clarity will be a key factor in determining Bitcoin's price trajectory. It is hoping that the macroeconomic climate will cooperate, and that the external shocks that have battered markets throughout 2024 will subside by Easter. These external shocks, which include the Iranian missile attack on Israel, heightened inflation, weak job reports, and the escalation of the trade war, have done much to damage the ‘digital gold’ narrative.

該模型還指出，監管清晰度將是確定比特幣價格軌蹟的關鍵因素。希望宏觀經濟氣候能夠合作，並且在2024年遭受毆打市場的外部衝擊將在復活節前消失。這些外部衝擊包括對以色列的伊朗導彈襲擊，通貨膨脹率提高，工作報告疲軟以及貿易戰爭的升級，已經為損害了“數字黃金”的敘述做出了很大的損害。

However, Bitcoin has shown resilience and recovered from lows hit earlier in 2024, and it is still trading at relatively high levels compared to the broader market. This suggests that the bearish factors, such as a sudden and harsh regulatory crackdown against the industry, competition from the other cryptocurrencies, security breaches, or a greater economic recession, may not be as dominant as the bullish factors.

但是，比特幣表現出彈性，並從2024年前早些時候的低點中恢復過來，與更廣泛的市場相比，它的交易水平仍然相對較高。這表明看跌因素，例如針對該行業的突然而嚴厲的監管鎮壓，其他加密貨幣的競爭，安全漏洞或更大的經濟衰退可能並不像看漲的因素那樣占主導地位。

Ultimately, Gemma 3's predictions are just that: predictions. It remains to be seen where Bitcoin will actually be trading by Easter 2025. However, the model's analysis provides some valuable insights into the factors that could influence Bitcoin's price in the coming year. It will be interesting to see if the model's predictions are accurate, or if Bitcoin has some "higher-highs, higher-lows" action in store.

最終，Gemma 3的預測就是這樣：預測。到2025年復活節之前，比特幣實際上將在哪裡進行交易還有待觀察。但是，該模型的分析提供了一些有價值的見解，以了解可能影響來年比特幣價格的因素。看看模型的預測是否準確，或者比特幣是否在存儲中具有一些“更高的高低”動作，這將很有趣。