比特币（BTC）价格预测：随着美国股票市场的暴跌，加密可以成为避风港吗？

自4月2日以来，也称为“解放日”，美国股市经历了有史以来最高的波动时期之一。

Since April 2nd, also known as ‘Liberation Day’, the U.S. stock market has experienced one of its highest periods of volatility.

自4月2日以来，也称为“解放日”，美国股市经历了其最高的波动时期之一。

America’s aggressive stance on foreign trade sent Wall Street into a tailspin, triggering panic selling and unprecedented swings over the last week. The Dow Jones plunged 4,000 points in just 48 hours, marking the first back-to-back 1,500+ point losses in history. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dropped 10.5%, erasing nearly $5 trillion in market value.

美国对外贸的积极立场使华尔街陷入了尾巴，在上周引发了恐慌销售和前所未有的秋千。道琼斯琼斯（Dow Jones）在短短48小时内就跌入了4,000分，这是历史上首次背靠背的1,500分损失。同时，标准普尔500指数下降了10.5％，净化了近5万亿美元的市场价值。

Fake News & Market Fakeouts on a Speculative-Driven Market

假新闻和市场在投机驱动的市场上

Adding fuel to the fire, misinformation has played a massive role in recent market movements. Just yesterday, a Twitter account with around 1,000 followers falsely claimed that America would instill a 90-day pause in tariffs. Later in the day, “Walter Bloomberg” another profile with around 800,000 followers retweeted the post.

为火灾增加了燃料，错误信息在最近的市场变动中发挥了巨大作用。就在昨天，一个有大约1,000名关注者的Twitter帐户声称美国将在关税中灌输90天的停顿。当天晚些时候，“沃尔特·彭博（Walter Bloomberg）”另一个个人资料，大约80万关注者转发了该帖子。

That single juxtaposition triggered a frenzy, sending the undervalued stock market soaring, only for reality to set in once the White House swiftly denied the rumor.

那个单一的并置引发了疯狂的，使被低估的股市飙升，只有一旦白宫迅速否认了谣言，现实才能实现。

Instead of assessing company fundamentals, the market is increasingly trading on pure speculation. In truth, yesterday’s case makes the argument that the current market is as speculative as low-tier altcoins. Unlike traditional stock valuation models, which rely on earnings reports and balance sheets, Wall Street is now moving on sentiment alone.

市场越来越多地以纯粹的推测来评估公司的基本面。实际上，昨天的案例表明，当前市场与低层山寨币一样投机。与依靠收益报告和资产负债表的传统股票估值模型不同，华尔街现在仅以情感而动。

Crypto as Safe Haven?

加密作为避风港？

While crypto has also seen a drop, with Bitcoin losing nearly 12% since April 2nd, there is still an argument that digital assets could serve as a hedge against financial instability in the coming months.

尽管加密货币也有所下降，自4月2日以来，比特币损失了近12％，但仍有一个论点认为，数字资产可以作为对冲在未来几个月内对金融不稳定的对冲。

While the role of hedge against inflation has worked for crypto during the COVID pandemic, leaving most digital assets at their all-time highest prices at the time — cryptocurrency’s role as a store of value is still to be ‘battle-tested’, especially when comparing it to gold.

虽然对冲通货膨胀的作用在库维德大流行期间为加密货币发挥了作用，但当时将大多数数字资产以其历史最高的价格留下 - 加密货币作为价值存储的作用仍然是“战斗测试”的，尤其是在将其与黄金进行比较时。

Historically, Bitcoin Bounced Back From Major Crashes

从历史上看，比特币从重大撞车事故中反弹

Despite its volatility, Bitcoin has a pattern of recovering from severe market downturns—often bouncing back faster than traditional assets. From its early years, Bitcoin has endured multiple crashes, sometimes losing more than 80% of its value, only to eventually rally to new all-time highs.

尽管它的波动性波动，但比特币还是从严重的市场下滑中恢复的模式，通常比传统资产更快地反弹。从早期开始，比特币已经遭受了多次崩溃，有时会损失其价值的80％以上，最终使新的历史最高升高。

While this resilience suggests it may withstand market turbulence.

尽管这种韧性表明它可以承受市场动荡。

Fixed Supply vs. Unlimited Printing

固定供应与无限打印

One of Bitcoin’s strongest value propositions is its fixed supply of 21 million coins. In contrast, fiat currencies are controlled by central banks, which can print unlimited amounts of money—a process that historically leads to inflation and devaluation.

比特币最强的价值主张之一是其固定的2100万枚硬币。相比之下，法定货币由中央银行控制，中央银行可以打印无限量的钱，这是从历史上导致通货膨胀和贬值的过程。

As governments all around the world are getting ready to deal with growing inflation, as mentioned by the U.S. Central Bank Chairman Jerome Powell — Bitcoin’s fixed supply and deflationary model could make it a more attractive investment.

正如美国中央银行董事长杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）所提到的那样，世界各地的政府都准备应对不断增长的通货膨胀，比特币的固定供应和放设模式可以使其成为更具吸引力的投资。

Institutional Adoption Strengthens Credibility

机构采用增强了信誉

Arguably the strongest case Bitcoin has going for it right now is the vast increase of institutional adoption over the recent months. Led by Michael Saylor’s Strategy — companies across the globe have been adding $BTC to their reserve by the billions.

可以说，比特币目前最强大的案例比特币是最近几个月的机构采用大幅提高。在迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的战略领导下 - 全球公司一直在数十亿美元的储备中增加$ BTC。

Moreover, not only companies are adopting the trend. Hedge funds, financial institutions, and even governments have turned to crypto to protect their wealth from economic instability. This further reinforces Bitcoin’s legitimacy as a store of value, one that could, over time, rival even gold as a safe haven investment.

此外，不仅公司正在采用这一趋势。对冲基金，金融机构甚至政府已转向加密货币，以保护其财富免受经济不稳定的侵害。这进一步加强了比特币作为价值存储的合法性，随着时间的流逝，它甚至可以与黄金成为避风港投资。