比特幣（BTC）價格預測：隨著美國股票市場的暴跌，加密可以成為避風港嗎？

自4月2日以來，也稱為“解放日”，美國股市經歷了有史以來最高的波動時期之一。

Since April 2nd, also known as ‘Liberation Day’, the U.S. stock market has experienced one of its highest periods of volatility.

自4月2日以來，也稱為“解放日”，美國股市經歷了其最高的波動時期之一。

America’s aggressive stance on foreign trade sent Wall Street into a tailspin, triggering panic selling and unprecedented swings over the last week. The Dow Jones plunged 4,000 points in just 48 hours, marking the first back-to-back 1,500+ point losses in history. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dropped 10.5%, erasing nearly $5 trillion in market value.

美國對外貿的積極立場使華爾街陷入了尾巴，在上週引發了恐慌銷售和前所未有的鞦韆。道瓊斯瓊斯（Dow Jones）在短短48小時內就跌入了4,000分，這是歷史上首次背靠背的1,500分損失。同時，標準普爾500指數下降了10.5％，淨化了近5萬億美元的市場價值。

Fake News & Market Fakeouts on a Speculative-Driven Market

假新聞和市場在投機驅動的市場上

Adding fuel to the fire, misinformation has played a massive role in recent market movements. Just yesterday, a Twitter account with around 1,000 followers falsely claimed that America would instill a 90-day pause in tariffs. Later in the day, “Walter Bloomberg” another profile with around 800,000 followers retweeted the post.

為火災增加了燃料，錯誤信息在最近的市場變動中發揮了巨大作用。就在昨天，一個有大約1,000名關注者的Twitter帳戶聲稱美國將在關稅中灌輸90天的停頓。當天晚些時候，“沃爾特·彭博（Walter Bloomberg）”另一個個人資料，大約80萬關注者轉發了該帖子。

That single juxtaposition triggered a frenzy, sending the undervalued stock market soaring, only for reality to set in once the White House swiftly denied the rumor.

那個單一的並置引發了瘋狂的，使被低估的股市飆升，只有一旦白宮迅速否認了謠言，現實才能實現。

Instead of assessing company fundamentals, the market is increasingly trading on pure speculation. In truth, yesterday’s case makes the argument that the current market is as speculative as low-tier altcoins. Unlike traditional stock valuation models, which rely on earnings reports and balance sheets, Wall Street is now moving on sentiment alone.

市場越來越多地以純粹的推測來評估公司的基本面。實際上，昨天的案例表明，當前市場與低層山寨幣一樣投機。與依靠收益報告和資產負債表的傳統股票估值模型不同，華爾街現在僅以情感而動。

Crypto as Safe Haven?

加密作為避風港？

While crypto has also seen a drop, with Bitcoin losing nearly 12% since April 2nd, there is still an argument that digital assets could serve as a hedge against financial instability in the coming months.

儘管加密貨幣也有所下降，自4月2日以來，比特幣損失了近12％，但仍有一個論點認為，數字資產可以作為對沖在未來幾個月內對金融不穩定的對沖。

While the role of hedge against inflation has worked for crypto during the COVID pandemic, leaving most digital assets at their all-time highest prices at the time — cryptocurrency’s role as a store of value is still to be ‘battle-tested’, especially when comparing it to gold.

雖然對沖通貨膨脹的作用在庫維德大流行期間為加密貨幣發揮了作用，但當時將大多數數字資產以其歷史最高的價格留下 - 加密貨幣作為價值存儲的作用仍然是“戰鬥測試”的，尤其是在將其與黃金進行比較時。

Historically, Bitcoin Bounced Back From Major Crashes

從歷史上看，比特幣從重大撞車事故中反彈

Despite its volatility, Bitcoin has a pattern of recovering from severe market downturns—often bouncing back faster than traditional assets. From its early years, Bitcoin has endured multiple crashes, sometimes losing more than 80% of its value, only to eventually rally to new all-time highs.

儘管它的波動性波動，但比特幣還是從嚴重的市場下滑中恢復的模式，通常比傳統資產更快地反彈。從早期開始，比特幣已經遭受了多次崩潰，有時會損失其價值的80％以上，最終使新的歷史最高升高。

While this resilience suggests it may withstand market turbulence.

儘管這種韌性表明它可以承受市場動盪。

Fixed Supply vs. Unlimited Printing

固定供應與無限打印

One of Bitcoin’s strongest value propositions is its fixed supply of 21 million coins. In contrast, fiat currencies are controlled by central banks, which can print unlimited amounts of money—a process that historically leads to inflation and devaluation.

比特幣最強的價值主張之一是其固定的2100萬枚硬幣。相比之下，法定貨幣由中央銀行控制，中央銀行可以打印無限量的錢，這是從歷史上導致通貨膨脹和貶值的過程。

As governments all around the world are getting ready to deal with growing inflation, as mentioned by the U.S. Central Bank Chairman Jerome Powell — Bitcoin’s fixed supply and deflationary model could make it a more attractive investment.

正如美國中央銀行董事長杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）所提到的那樣，世界各地的政府都準備應對不斷增長的通貨膨脹，比特幣的固定供應和放設模式可以使其成為更具吸引力的投資。

Institutional Adoption Strengthens Credibility

機構採用增強了信譽

Arguably the strongest case Bitcoin has going for it right now is the vast increase of institutional adoption over the recent months. Led by Michael Saylor’s Strategy — companies across the globe have been adding $BTC to their reserve by the billions.

可以說，比特幣目前最強大的案例比特幣是最近幾個月的機構採用大幅提高。在邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的戰略領導下 - 全球公司一直在數十億美元的儲備中增加$ BTC。

Moreover, not only companies are adopting the trend. Hedge funds, financial institutions, and even governments have turned to crypto to protect their wealth from economic instability. This further reinforces Bitcoin’s legitimacy as a store of value, one that could, over time, rival even gold as a safe haven investment.

此外，不僅公司正在採用這一趨勢。對沖基金，金融機構甚至政府已轉向加密貨幣，以保護其財富免受經濟不穩定的侵害。這進一步加強了比特幣作為價值存儲的合法性，隨著時間的流逝，它甚至可以與黃金成為避風港投資。