比特币（BTC）价格预测：随着精明资金的积累，散户投资者消失

尽管最近价格上涨，比特币 (BTC) 仍难以突破 10 万美元大关。这种波动很大程度上与市场寻求稳定时零售兴趣下降有关。

Bitcoin’s retail investors disappeared from the market as soon as they arrived.

比特币的散户投资者一进来就从市场上消失了。

As Bitcoin’s price approached the $100,000 mark, retail investors flocked to the market, eager to capitalize on the rising asset. However, their presence was short-lived.

随着比特币价格接近 10 万美元大关，散户投资者纷纷涌入市场，渴望从这一不断上涨的资产中获利。然而，他们的存在是短暂的。

According to CryptoQuant’s 30-day retail demand variation metric, retail demand surged by over 30% as BTC approached $100,000.

根据 CryptoQuant 的 30 天零售需求变化指标，随着 BTC 接近 10 万美元，零售需求激增了 30% 以上。

This metric measures the change in retail demand over a 30-day period, providing insight into the level of interest from smaller investors in the market.

该指标衡量 30 天内零售需求的变化，从而深入了解市场中小型投资者的兴趣水平。

A surge in retail demand typically signals heightened interest, enthusiasm, or FOMO (fear of missing out) among smaller investors.

零售需求的激增通常预示着中小投资者的兴趣、热情或 FOMO（害怕错过）的增加。

Historically, when retail demand variation exceeds 15%, it often precedes a local top.

从历史上看，当零售需求变化超过 15% 时，通常会出现局部顶部。

This is what happened after Bitcoin reached its new all-time high of $108,000. After reaching this level, the market corrected, with retail demand dropping by 16%.

这是比特币达到 108,000 美元的历史新高后发生的事情。达到这一水平后，市场进行了调整，零售需求下降了 16%。

Retail investors are known for being emotional reactors and quickly entering and exiting their positions during market corrections.

散户投资者以情绪反应敏感而闻名，并在市场调整期间快速进出仓位。

A drop below 10% indicates that retail interest has dropped significantly, presenting a buying opportunity for large and experienced traders.

跌破 10% 表明散户兴趣大幅下降，为大型且经验丰富的交易者提供了买入机会。

After such declines, the market has frequently experienced a bullish rebound as weak hands capitulate and stronger hands accumulate.

在这样的下跌之后，市场经常会出现看涨反弹，弱手投降，强手吸纳。

What does this mean for BTC?

这对比特币意味着什么？

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, Bitcoin is experiencing a shift in market activity from retail traders to smart money accumulation.

根据 AMBCrypto 的分析，比特币正在经历市场活动从散户交易转向智能资金积累的转变。

This drop in retail demand signals that markets are cooling off after a speculative frenzy.

零售需求的下降表明市场在投机狂潮之后正在降温。

Hence, BTC has moved from weaker hands to stronger hands.

因此，BTC已经从较弱的手转向了较强的手。

The recent drop in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicates a shift in ownership and market activity.

最近支出产出利润率（SOPR）的下降表明所有权和市场活动发生了变化。

Despite the decline, the SOPR remains at 1.01, signaling that holders are not willing to sell at a loss.

尽管有所下降，SOPR 仍保持在 1.01，表明持有者不愿意亏本出售。

This market behavior suggests stronger hands in the market, indicating that investors are confident in holding their positions even during market corrections.

这种市场行为表明市场上的手比较强，表明即使在市场调整期间，投资者也有信心保住自己的头寸。

This accumulation trend is further evidenced by the decline in the exchange whale ratio.

这种积累趋势进一步通过交易所鲸鱼比例的下降得到证明。

The whales’ supply to exchanges has dropped to 0.37, signaling HODL behavior.

鲸鱼对交易所的供应量已降至 0.37，表明 HODL 行为。

Whales are sending their BTC tokens to private wallets, indicating bullish sentiment as they anticipate further gains.

鲸鱼正在将他们的 BTC 代币发送到私人钱包，这表明他们预计会进一步上涨，因此看涨情绪。

Simply put, the drop in retail demand has presented an opportunity for large holders to accumulate BTC at lower prices.

简而言之，零售需求的下降为大户提供了以较低价格积累比特币的机会。

These conditions bode well for Bitcoin to reclaim the $98,700 level. A move above this level will strengthen Bitcoin to reclaim the $100,000 level.

这些条件对于比特币重回 98,700 美元的水平来说是个好兆头。突破这一水平将推动比特币重回 100,000 美元水平。

Conversely, another market correction could see BTC drop to the $96,100 support level.

相反，另一次市场调整可能会导致 BTC 跌至 96,100 美元的支撑位。