比特幣（BTC）價格預測：隨著精明資金的積累，散戶投資人消失

儘管最近價格上漲，比特幣 (BTC) 仍難以突破 10 萬美元大關。這種波動很大程度上與市場尋求穩定時零售興趣下降有關。

Bitcoin’s retail investors disappeared from the market as soon as they arrived.

比特幣的散戶一進來就從市場上消失了。

As Bitcoin’s price approached the $100,000 mark, retail investors flocked to the market, eager to capitalize on the rising asset. However, their presence was short-lived.

隨著比特幣價格逼近 10 萬美元大關，散戶投資者紛紛湧入市場，渴望從這不斷上漲的資產中獲利。然而，他們的存在是短暫的。

According to CryptoQuant’s 30-day retail demand variation metric, retail demand surged by over 30% as BTC approached $100,000.

根據 CryptoQuant 的 30 天零售需求變化指標，隨著 BTC 接近 10 萬美元，零售需求激增超過 30%。

This metric measures the change in retail demand over a 30-day period, providing insight into the level of interest from smaller investors in the market.

此指標衡量 30 天內零售需求的變化，從而深入了解市場中小型投資者的興趣程度。

A surge in retail demand typically signals heightened interest, enthusiasm, or FOMO (fear of missing out) among smaller investors.

零售需求的激增通常預示著中小投資者的興趣、熱情或 FOMO（害怕錯過）的增加。

Historically, when retail demand variation exceeds 15%, it often precedes a local top.

從歷史上看，當零售需求變化超過 15% 時，通常會出現局部頂部。

This is what happened after Bitcoin reached its new all-time high of $108,000. After reaching this level, the market corrected, with retail demand dropping by 16%.

這是比特幣達到 108,000 美元的歷史新高後發生的事情。達到這一水準後，市場進行調整，零售需求下降了 16%。

Retail investors are known for being emotional reactors and quickly entering and exiting their positions during market corrections.

散戶以情緒反應敏感而聞名，並在市場調整期間快速進出部位。

A drop below 10% indicates that retail interest has dropped significantly, presenting a buying opportunity for large and experienced traders.

跌破 10% 表示散戶興趣大幅下降，為大型且經驗豐富的交易者提供了買入機會。

After such declines, the market has frequently experienced a bullish rebound as weak hands capitulate and stronger hands accumulate.

在這樣的下跌之後，市場常會出現看漲反彈，弱手投降，強手吸收。

What does this mean for BTC?

這對比特幣意味著什麼？

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, Bitcoin is experiencing a shift in market activity from retail traders to smart money accumulation.

根據 AMBCrypto 的分析，比特幣正在經歷市場活動從散戶交易轉向智慧資金累積的轉變。

This drop in retail demand signals that markets are cooling off after a speculative frenzy.

零售需求的下降表明市場在投機狂潮之後正在降溫。

Hence, BTC has moved from weaker hands to stronger hands.

因此，BTC已經從較弱的手轉向了較強的手。

The recent drop in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicates a shift in ownership and market activity.

最近支出產出利潤率（SOPR）的下降表明所有權和市場活動發生了變化。

Despite the decline, the SOPR remains at 1.01, signaling that holders are not willing to sell at a loss.

儘管有所下降，SOPR 仍保持在 1.01，表明持有者不願意虧本出售。

This market behavior suggests stronger hands in the market, indicating that investors are confident in holding their positions even during market corrections.

這種市場行為顯示市場上的手比較強，顯示即使在市場調整期間，投資人也有信心保住自己的部位。

This accumulation trend is further evidenced by the decline in the exchange whale ratio.

這種累積趨勢進一步透過交易所鯨魚比例的下降得到證明。

The whales’ supply to exchanges has dropped to 0.37, signaling HODL behavior.

鯨魚對交易所的供應量已降至 0.37，顯示 HODL 行為。

Whales are sending their BTC tokens to private wallets, indicating bullish sentiment as they anticipate further gains.

鯨魚正在將他們的 BTC 代幣發送到私人錢包，這表明他們預計會進一步上漲，因此看漲情緒。

Simply put, the drop in retail demand has presented an opportunity for large holders to accumulate BTC at lower prices.

簡而言之，零售需求的下降為大戶提供了以較低價格累積比特幣的機會。

These conditions bode well for Bitcoin to reclaim the $98,700 level. A move above this level will strengthen Bitcoin to reclaim the $100,000 level.

這些條件對於比特幣重回 98,700 美元的水平來說是個好兆頭。突破這一水平將推動比特幣重回 10 萬美元水準。

Conversely, another market correction could see BTC drop to the $96,100 support level.

相反，另一次市場調整可能會導致 BTC 跌至 96,100 美元的支撐位。