比特币（BTC）价格预测：美联储的利率决策是否会将BTC发送到新的低点？

比特币是世界上最大的加密货币，周一遭受了打击，经过一周的稳定损失，比特币跌至83,191美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped on Monday, extending a weekly decline as the market awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.

比特币（BTC）周一下降，随着市场等待美国美联储即将到来的利率决定，每周下降。

Bitcoin fell 1.4% over the past 24 hours to $83,191 by 01:08 ET (05:08 GMT). The world’s largest cryptocurrency had been steadily losing ground since the beginning of the week, and was now down 3% for the week.

比特币在过去24小时内下降了1.4％，至$ 83,191，乘01:08 ET（GMT 05:08）。自本周初以来，世界上最大的加密货币一直在稳步失去地面，现在本周下降了3％。

But with the market already on edge, all eyes were now on the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting.

但是，随着市场已经处于优势，现在所有人都关注美联储即将举行的政策会议。

Most analysts polled by economists expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the meeting, which is set for March 18-19. The U.S. central bank last raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, after slowing the pace of hikes in December.

经济学家对经济学家进行调查的大多数分析师都期望美联储在会议上保持利率不变，该会议定于3月18日至19日。美国央行在12月的加快速度放缓后，在一月份将利率提高了25个基点。

Since Bitcoin is often seen to be leading the broader crypto market, this decision could have a major bearing on prices.

由于通常认为比特币领导着更广泛的加密货币市场，因此该决定可能对价格有很大的影响。

Will the Fed Keep Rates Stable?

美联储会保持稳定的费率吗？

The Fed’s policy meeting will also cover February’s economic data. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is a 98% chance that the Fed will keep rates the same.

美联储的政策会议还将涵盖2月的经济数据。根据CME Group的FedWatch工具的说法，美联储保持不变的机会有98％的机会。

The U.S. central bank began raising interest rates in March 2022 to tame inflation, which had reached a 40-year high. These hikes were largely expected to continue until mid-2023. But the central bank surprised markets in January by slowing the pace of hikes and signaling that it could pivot later in the year.

美国中央银行于2022年3月开始将利率提高到驯服通货膨胀，该通货膨胀率达到40年。预计这些远足将持续到2023年中。但是中央银行在一月份使市场惊讶的是，减慢了徒步旅行的步伐，并表示可能在今年晚些时候旋转。

The rate hikes had a major bearing on cryptocurrencies, as they signaled a shift in the central bank’s efforts to tighten the money supply.

加息的速度对加密货币有很大的影响，因为它们表明中央银行为收紧货币供应的努力发生了变化。

How U.S. Dollar Is Affecting Bitcoin

美元如何影响比特币

The U.S. dollar is also playing a crucial role in Bitcoin’s price movements. The Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell on Monday.

美元在比特币的价格变动中也起着至关重要的作用。美元货币指数（DXY）在周一下降，该货币指数（DXY）衡量了针对六种主要货币的绿色货币。

The dollar has been largely in retreat since mid-January, after reaching a 20-year high in January. This move came after the Fed signaled that it could keep interest rates higher for longer than markets had anticipated.

一月份达到20年高高的1月中旬以来，美元自1月中旬以来一直在撤退。此举是在美联储表示可以使更长的利率更高的利率高于市场预期的。

But the dollar pulled back sharply after minutes of the January Fed meeting showed that some members were keen on cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at the January meeting. Ultimately, the central bank opted for a 25-basis point hike.

但是，在一月份的美联储会议的几分钟后，美元急剧退缩，表明有些成员热衷于在一月份的会议上将利率降低50个基点。最终，中央银行选择了25个基线的远足。

A weaker dollar usually bodes well for riskier assets such as crypto. This is because a weaker dollar pushes investors toward alternative assets, including Bitcoin.

较弱的美元通常可以很好地考虑诸如加密货币之类的风险较高的资产。这是因为较弱的美元将投资者推向了包括比特币在内的替代资产。

Global Liquidity and Fed’s Impact

全球流动性和美联储的影响

Besides interest rates, global liquidity is another key factor that will be closely watched.

除利率外，全球流动性是将密切关注的另一个关键因素。

Central banks around the world, including the Fed, have been increasing the money supply to support their economies, especially after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.

包括美联储在内的世界各地的中央银行一直在增加货币供应以支持其经济体，尤其是在Covid-19大流行病开始后。

Greater liquidity generally pushes asset prices- including stocks, real estate and crypto- higher.

更大的流动性通常会推动资产价格（包括股票，房地产和加密货币）。

If the Fed signals an end to its efforts to tighten the money supply, the crypto market could react positively.

如果美联储终结了其收紧货币供应的努力，则加密货币市场可以做出积极的反应。

Ethereum, Altcoins Lag

以太坊，altcoins滞后

Among other major cryptocurrencies, Ethereum (ETH) came under renewed pressure on Monday, extending a weekly loss of 9% as it slid below the $1,900 level.

在其他主要加密货币中，以太坊（ETH）周一面临重新压力，每周损失9％，因为它滑到了1,900美元的水平以下。

The second-largest cryptocurrency was last trading down 1%, and slid further from February highs of over $2,000. It was now trying to hold above the crucial $1,900 level and push back toward $2,000.

第二大加密货币的最后交易下降了1％，并且从2月高至2,000美元以上的高空下滑。现在，它试图超过至关重要的$ 1,900水平，并将其推回2,000美元。

Another factor that could weigh on Ethereum was declining user activity. Data showed that daily active users of the Ethereum blockchain dropped to 293,000 on Sunday, sliding further from highs of over 700,000 earlier this year.

可能对以太坊的另一个因素正在减少用户活动。数据表明，以太坊区块链的每日活跃用户在周日下降到293,000，从今年早些时候的高处超过700,000。

Other major altcoins also saw steep declines on Monday, with Solana (SOL), XRP, Cardano (ADA) and Tron (TRX) all clocking losses of over 4%. Most of these tokens also slid into the red for the week.

周一，其他主要的山寨币也急剧下降，索拉纳（Sol），XRP，Cardano（Ada）和Tron（TRX）的时钟损失超过4％。这些代币中的大多数也在一周内滑入红色。

Several experts had warned that the crypto market was due for a correction after a stellar start to 2024, which saw Bitcoin rally over 70% from December lows.

几位专家警告说，加密货币市场将在2024年开始出色后进行更正，这使比特币从12月的低点开始拉力超过70％。

But they also noted that a future Fed rate cut could bode well for a strong recovery in crypto.

但是他们还指出，未来的美联储降低速度可以很好地培养加密货币。