比特幣（BTC）價格預測：美聯儲的利率決策是否會將BTC發送到新的低點？

比特幣是世界上最大的加密貨幣，週一遭受了打擊，經過一周的穩定損失，比特幣跌至83,191美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped on Monday, extending a weekly decline as the market awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.

比特幣（BTC）週一下降，隨著市場等待美國美聯儲即將到來的利率決定，每週下降。

Bitcoin fell 1.4% over the past 24 hours to $83,191 by 01:08 ET (05:08 GMT). The world’s largest cryptocurrency had been steadily losing ground since the beginning of the week, and was now down 3% for the week.

比特幣在過去24小時內下降了1.4％，至$ 83,191，乘01:08 ET（GMT 05:08）。自本周初以來，世界上最大的加密貨幣一直在穩步失去地面，現在本週下降了3％。

But with the market already on edge, all eyes were now on the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting.

但是，隨著市場已經處於優勢，現在所有人都關注美聯儲即將舉行的政策會議。

Most analysts polled by economists expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the meeting, which is set for March 18-19. The U.S. central bank last raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, after slowing the pace of hikes in December.

經濟學家對經濟學家進行調查的大多數分析師都期望美聯儲在會議上保持利率不變，該會議定於3月18日至19日。美國央行在12月的加快速度放緩後，在一月份將利率提高了25個基點。

Since Bitcoin is often seen to be leading the broader crypto market, this decision could have a major bearing on prices.

由於通常認為比特幣領導著更廣泛的加密貨幣市場，因此該決定可能對價格有很大的影響。

Will the Fed Keep Rates Stable?

美聯儲會保持穩定的費率嗎？

The Fed’s policy meeting will also cover February’s economic data. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is a 98% chance that the Fed will keep rates the same.

美聯儲的政策會議還將涵蓋2月的經濟數據。根據CME Group的FedWatch工具的說法，美聯儲保持不變的機會有98％的機會。

The U.S. central bank began raising interest rates in March 2022 to tame inflation, which had reached a 40-year high. These hikes were largely expected to continue until mid-2023. But the central bank surprised markets in January by slowing the pace of hikes and signaling that it could pivot later in the year.

美國中央銀行於2022年3月開始將利率提高到馴服通貨膨脹，該通貨膨脹率達到40年。預計這些遠足將持續到2023年中。但是中央銀行在一月份使市場驚訝的是，減慢了徒步旅行的步伐，並表示可能在今年晚些時候旋轉。

The rate hikes had a major bearing on cryptocurrencies, as they signaled a shift in the central bank’s efforts to tighten the money supply.

加息的速度對加密貨幣有很大的影響，因為它們表明中央銀行為收緊貨幣供應的努力發生了變化。

How U.S. Dollar Is Affecting Bitcoin

美元如何影響比特幣

The U.S. dollar is also playing a crucial role in Bitcoin’s price movements. The Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell on Monday.

美元在比特幣的價格變動中也起著至關重要的作用。美元貨幣指數（DXY）在周一下降，該貨幣指數（DXY）衡量了針對六種主要貨幣的綠色貨幣。

The dollar has been largely in retreat since mid-January, after reaching a 20-year high in January. This move came after the Fed signaled that it could keep interest rates higher for longer than markets had anticipated.

一月份達到20年高高的1月中旬以來，美元自1月中旬以來一直在撤退。此舉是在美聯儲表示可以使更長的利率更高的利率高於市場預期的。

But the dollar pulled back sharply after minutes of the January Fed meeting showed that some members were keen on cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at the January meeting. Ultimately, the central bank opted for a 25-basis point hike.

但是，在一月份的美聯儲會議的幾分鐘後，美元急劇退縮，表明有些成員熱衷於在一月份的會議上將利率降低50個基點。最終，中央銀行選擇了25個基線的遠足。

A weaker dollar usually bodes well for riskier assets such as crypto. This is because a weaker dollar pushes investors toward alternative assets, including Bitcoin.

較弱的美元通常可以很好地考慮諸如加密貨幣之類的風險較高的資產。這是因為較弱的美元將投資者推向了包括比特幣在內的替代資產。

Global Liquidity and Fed’s Impact

全球流動性和美聯儲的影響

Besides interest rates, global liquidity is another key factor that will be closely watched.

除利率外，全球流動性是將密切關注的另一個關鍵因素。

Central banks around the world, including the Fed, have been increasing the money supply to support their economies, especially after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.

包括美聯儲在內的世界各地的中央銀行一直在增加貨幣供應以支持其經濟體，尤其是在Covid-19大流行病開始後。

Greater liquidity generally pushes asset prices- including stocks, real estate and crypto- higher.

更大的流動性通常會推動資產價格（包括股票，房地產和加密貨幣）。

If the Fed signals an end to its efforts to tighten the money supply, the crypto market could react positively.

如果美聯儲終結了其收緊貨幣供應的努力，則加密貨幣市場可以做出積極的反應。

Ethereum, Altcoins Lag

以太坊，altcoins滯後

Among other major cryptocurrencies, Ethereum (ETH) came under renewed pressure on Monday, extending a weekly loss of 9% as it slid below the $1,900 level.

在其他主要加密貨幣中，以太坊（ETH）週一面臨重新壓力，每週損失9％，因為它滑到了1,900美元的水平以下。

The second-largest cryptocurrency was last trading down 1%, and slid further from February highs of over $2,000. It was now trying to hold above the crucial $1,900 level and push back toward $2,000.

第二大加密貨幣的最後交易下降了1％，並且從2月高至2,000美元以上的高空下滑。現在，它試圖超過至關重要的$ 1,900水平，並將其推回2,000美元。

Another factor that could weigh on Ethereum was declining user activity. Data showed that daily active users of the Ethereum blockchain dropped to 293,000 on Sunday, sliding further from highs of over 700,000 earlier this year.

可能對以太坊的另一個因素正在減少用戶活動。數據表明，以太坊區塊鏈的每日活躍用戶在周日下降到293,000，從今年早些時候的高處超過700,000。

Other major altcoins also saw steep declines on Monday, with Solana (SOL), XRP, Cardano (ADA) and Tron (TRX) all clocking losses of over 4%. Most of these tokens also slid into the red for the week.

週一，其他主要的山寨幣也急劇下降，索拉納（Sol），XRP，Cardano（Ada）和Tron（TRX）的時鐘損失超過4％。這些代幣中的大多數也在一周內滑入紅色。

Several experts had warned that the crypto market was due for a correction after a stellar start to 2024, which saw Bitcoin rally over 70% from December lows.

幾位專家警告說，加密貨幣市場將在2024年開始出色後進行更正，這使比特幣從12月的低點開始拉力超過70％。

But they also noted that a future Fed rate cut could bode well for a strong recovery in crypto.

但是他們還指出，未來的美聯儲降低速度可以很好地培養加密貨幣。